Do Stacked Species Distribution Models Reflect Altitudinal Diversity Patterns?

The objective of this study was to evaluate the performance of stacked species distribution models in predicting the alpha and gamma species diversity patterns of two important plant clades along elevation in the Andes. We modelled the distribution of the species in the Anthurium genus (53 species) and the Bromeliaceae family (89 species) using six modelling techniques. We combined all of the predictions for the same species in ensemble models based on two different criteria: the average of the rescaled predictions by all techniques and the average of the best techniques. The rescaled predictions were then reclassified into binary predictions (presence/absence). By stacking either the original predictions or binary predictions for both ensemble procedures, we obtained four different species richness models per taxa. The gamma and alpha diversity per elevation band (500 m) was also computed. To evaluate the prediction abilities for the four predictions of species richness and gamma diversity, the models were compared with the real data along an elevation gradient that was independently compiled by specialists. Finally, we also tested whether our richness models performed better than a null model of altitudinal changes of diversity based on the literature. Stacking of the ensemble prediction of the individual species models generated richness models that proved to be well correlated with the observed alpha diversity richness patterns along elevation and with the gamma diversity derived from the literature. Overall, these models tend to overpredict species richness. The use of the ensemble predictions from the species models built with different techniques seems very promising for modelling of species assemblages. Stacking of the binary models reduced the over-prediction, although more research is needed. The randomisation test proved to be a promising method for testing the performance of the stacked models, but other implementations may still be developed

Lineage diversification and historical demography of a montane bird Garrulax elliotii - implications for the Pleistocene evolutionary history of the eastern Himalayas

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Pleistocene climate fluctuations have shaped the patterns of genetic diversity observed in many extant species. In montane habitats, species' ranges may have expanded and contracted along an altitudinal gradient in response to environmental fluctuations leading to alternating periods of genetic isolation and connectivity. Because species' responses to climate change are influenced by interactions between species-specific characteristics and local topography, diversification pattern differs between species and locations. The eastern Himalayas is one of the world's most prominent mountain ranges. Its complex topography and environmental heterogeneity present an ideal system in which to study how climatic changes during Pleistocene have influenced species distributions, genetic diversification, and demography. The Elliot's laughing thrush (<it>Garrulax elliotii</it>) is largely restricted to high-elevation shrublands in eastern Himalayas. We used mitochondrial DNA and microsatellites to investigate how genetic diversity in this species was affected by Pleistocene glaciations.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Mitochondrial data detected two partially sympatric north-eastern and southern lineages. Microsatellite data, however, identified three distinct lineages congruent with the geographically separated southern, northern and eastern eco-subregions of the eastern Himalayas. Geographic breaks occur in steep mountains and deep valleys of the Kangding-Muli-Baoxin Divide. Divergence time estimates and coalescent simulations indicate that lineage diversification occurred on two different geographic and temporal scales; recent divergence, associated with geographic isolation into individual subregions, and historical divergence, associated with displacement into multiple refugia. Despite long-term isolation, genetic admixture among these subregional populations was observed, indicating historic periods of connectivity. The demographic history of <it>Garrulax elliotii </it>shows continuous population growth since late Pleistocene (about 0.125 mya).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>While altitude-associated isolation is typical of many species in other montane regions, our results suggest that eco-subregions in the eastern Himalayas exhibiting island-like characteristics appear to have determined the diversification of <it>Garrulax elliotii</it>. During the Pleistocene, these populations became isolated on subregions during interglacial periods but were connected when these expanded to low altitude during cooler periods. The resultant genetic admixture of lineages might obscure pattern of genetic variation. Our results provide new insights into sky island diversification in a previously unstudied region, and further demonstrate that Pleistocene climatic changes can have profound effects on lineage diversification and demography in montane species.</p

Optimal foraging and fitness in Columbian ground squirrels

Optimal diets were determined for each of 109 individual Columbian ground squirrels ( Spermophilus columbianus ) at two sites in northwestern Montana. Body mass, daily activity time, and vegetation consumption rates for individuals were measured in the field, along with the average water content of vegetation at each ground squirrel colony. I also measured stomach and caecal capacity and turnover rate of plant food through the digestive tract for individuals in the laboratory to construct regressions of digestive capacity as a function of individual body mass. Finally, I obtained literature estimates of average daily energy requirements as a function of body mass and digestible energy content of vegetation. These data were used to construct a linear programming diet model for each individual. The model for each individual was used to predict the proportion of two food types (monocots and dicots) that maximized daily energy intake, given time and digestive constraints on foraging. Individuals were classified as “optimal” or “deviating”, depending on whether their observed diet was significantly different from their predicted optimal diet. I determined the consequences of selecting an optimal diet for energy intake and fitness. As expected, daily energy intake calculated for deviators (based on their observed diet proportion) was less than that for optimal foragers. Deviating foragers do not appear to compensate for their lower calculated energy intake through other factors such as body size or physiological efficiency of processing food. Growth rate, yearly survivorship, and litter size increase with calculated energy intake, and optimal foragers have six times the reproductive success of deviators by age three. Optimal foraging behavior, therefore, appears to confer a considerable fitness advantage.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/47783/1/442_2004_Article_BF00318534.pd