1,097 research outputs found
Effect of marital status on death rates. Part 1: High accuracy exploration of the Farr-Bertillon effect
The Farr-Bertillon law says that for all age-groups the death rate of married
people is lower than the death rate of people who are not married (i.e. single,
widowed or divorced). Although this law has been known for over 150 years, it
has never been established with great accuracy. This even let some authors
argue that it was a statistical artefact. It is true that the data must be
selected and analyzed with great care, especially for age groups of small size
such as widowers under 25. The observations reported in this paper were
selected and designed in the same way as experiments in physics, that is to say
with the objective of minimizing the error bars for all age-groups. It will be
seen that data appropriate for mid-age groups may be unsuitable for young age
groups and vice versa. The investigation led to the following results. (1) The
FB effect is basically the same for men and women, except that on average it is
about 20\% stronger for men. (2) There is a marked difference between single or
divorced persons on the one hand, for whom the effect is largest around the age
of 45, and widowed persons on the other hand, for whom the effect is largest
around the age of 25. (3) When different causes of death are distinguished, the
effect is largest for suicide and smallest for cancer. (4) For young widowers
the death rates are up to 10 times higher than for married persons of same age.
This extreme form of the FB effect will be referred to as the "young widower
effect." A possible connection between the FB effect and Martin Raff's "Stay
alive" effect for cells in an organism is discussed in the last section.Comment: 30 pages, 17 figure
Effect of marital status on death rates. Part 2: Transient mortality spikes
We examine what happens in a population when it experiences an abrupt change
in surrounding conditions. Several cases of such "abrupt transitions" for both
physical and living social systems are analyzed from which it can be seen that
all share a common pattern. First, a steep rising death rate followed by a much
slower relaxation process during which the death rate decreases as a power law
(with an exponent close to 0.7). This leads us to propose a general principle
which can be summarized as follows: "ANY abrupt change in living conditions
generates a mortality spike which acts as a kind of selection process." This we
term the Transient Shock conjecture. It provides a qualitative model which
leads to testable predictions. For example, marriage certainly brings about a
major change in environmental and social conditions and according to our
conjecture one would expect a mortality spike in the months following marriage.
At first sight this may seem an unlikely proposition but we demonstrate (by
three different methods) that even here the existence of mortality spikes is
supported by solid empirical evidence.Comment: 42 pages, 18 figure
The detection of cheating in multiple choice examinations
Cheating in examinations is acknowledged by an increasing number of
organizations to be widespread. We examine two different approaches to assess
their effectiveness at detecting anomalous results, suggestive of collusion,
using data taken from a number of multiple-choice examinations organized by the
UK Radio Communication Foundation. Analysis of student pair overlaps of correct
answers is shown to give results consistent with more orthodox statistical
correlations for which confidence limits as opposed to the less familiar
"Bonferroni method" can be used. A simulation approach is also developed which
confirms the interpretation of the empirical approach.Comment: 16 pages, 13 figure
A Roof over your Head; House Price Peaks in the UK and Ireland
We analyse, following recent work of Roehner, changes in house prices for
both the UK and Ireland. We conclude that prices in London have reached a
tipping point and prices relative to inflation are set to fall over the next
few years. If inflation does not rise then a hard landing seems likely. House
prices in the Irish Republic are shown to have broken away from the moderate
rise still to be found in Northern Ireland and Dublin has emerged as another
global 'hot spot'. An evolution of Dublin house prices similar to that in
London can be anticipated. Keywords: Econophysics, house prices, real estate,
prediction PACS: 89.65.Gh, 89.90.+nComment: 7 pages, 7 figure
Phase transitions, memory and frustration in a Sznajd-like model with synchronous updating
We introduce a consensus model inspired by the Sznajd Model. The updating is
synchronous and memory plays here a decisive role in making possible the
reaching of total consensus. We study the phase transition between the state
with no-consensus to the state with total consensus.Comment: to be published in the IJMP
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