The Impact of Learning-By-Doing on the Timing and Costs of CO 2 Abatement

A particular ceiling on atmospheric CO2 concentrations can be maintained through a variety of emission pathways. Over the past decade, there has been considerable debate over the characteristics of a least-cost pathway. Some have suggested that a gradual departure from the emissions baseline will be the most cost-effective because it reduces the pressure for premature retirement of the existing capital stock, and it provides valuable time to develop low-cost, low-carbon emitting substitutes. Others counter that a major flaw in analyses that support this line of reasoning is that they ignore learning-by-doing (LBD). In this paper, we examine the impact of LBD on the timing and costs of emissions abatement. With regard to timing, we find that including learning-by-doing does not significantly alter the conclusions of previous studies that treated technology cost as exogenous. The analysis supports the earlier conclusion that for a wide range of stabilization ceilings, a gradual transition away from the 'no policy' emissions baseline is preferable to one that requires substantial near-term reductions. We find that the major impact of including learning-by-doing is on the costs of emission abatement. Depending upon the sensitivity of costs to cumulative experience, LBD can substantially reduce the overall costs of emissions abatement.

Market Exchange Rates or Purchasing Power Parity: Does the Choice Make a Difference to the Climate Debate?

Critics of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Special Report on Emission Scenarious claim that the use of market exchange rates rather than purchasing power parity has led to a significant upward bias in projections of greenhouse gas emissions, and hence unrealistically high future temperature. Rather than revisit the debate on the choice of exchange rates, we address a much simpler question: does the choice make a difference when it comes to projecting future temperature change' Employing a computable general equilibrium model designed to examine a variety of issues in the climate debate, we find that the answer is yes, but the difference is only minor.

US Rejection of the Kyoto Protocol: The Impact on Compliance Costs and CO 2 Emissions

Despite the US rejection of the Kyoto Protocol, the meeting of the parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change in July 2001 has increased the likelihood that the Protocol will be ratified. This raises a number of issues concerning mitigation costs, particularly for the buyers and sellers of emission permits. In this paper, we examine how the US decision is likely to affect compliance costs for other Annex B countries during the first commitment period. We also explore the implications for US emissions. Key findings include: 1. Participating OECD countries may experience a decline in mitigation costs, but because of the banking provision contained in the Protocol, the decline may not be as great as some would suggest. 2. If the majority of 'hot air' is concentrated in a small number of countries in Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union, these countries may be able to organize a sellers' cartel and extract sizable economic rents; and 3. Even in the absence of mandatory emission reduction requirements, US emissions in 2010 may be lower than their business-as-usual baseline because of expectations regarding future regulatory requirements.

Managing the Transition to Climate Stabilization

This paper builds upon recent work by the US Climate Change Science Program (CCSP). Among its products, the CCSP developed new emission projections for the major man-made greenhouse gases, explored the effects of emission limits on the energy system, and calculated the costs of various stabilization constraints to the economy. This paper applies one of the models used for that analysis to explore the sensitivity of the results to three potentially critical factors: the stabilization level, the policy design, and the availability and costs of low- to zero-emitting technologies. The major determinant of costs is likely to be something over which we have little control - Mother Nature. The choice of stabilization level will reflect our understanding of the science of global climate change. We have little control over many of the key bio-geophysical processes which, to a major extent, will determine what constitutes dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. We consider two limits on radiative forcing, corresponding to stabilizing CO2 concentrations at approximately 450 ppmv and 550 ppmv. These levels have been chosen because of the fundamentally different nature of the challenge posed by each. In the case of the lower concentration limit, emission reductions will be required virtually immediately and annual GDP losses to the US could approach 5%. With the higher concentration limit, the pressure for a sharp reduction in near-term emissions is not as great. This offers some potential to reduce GDP losses. Indeed, we find that depending upon the concentration limit, implementing market mechanisms which take advantage of 'where' and 'when' flexibility can markedly reduce GDP losses, perhaps by as much as an order of magnitude. However, for a variety of reasons, our ability to realize such savings may be compromised. One possible impediment relates to the proximity to the target. If the limit is imminent, flexibility will be greatly reduced. The nature of the coalition and our willingness to permit 'borrowing' emission rights from the future will also affect the magnitude of the potential savings. As a result, the reduction in GDP losses from where and when flexibility may turn out to be only a small fraction of what has been previously estimated. Fortunately, the biggest opportunity for managing costs may come from something over which we do have considerable control. We find that investments in climate friendly technologies can reduce GDP losses to the US by a factor of two or more. At present, we have insufficient economically competitive substitutes for high carbon emitting technologies. The development of low- to zero-emitting alternatives will require both a sustained commitment on the part of the public sector upstream in the R&D chain and incentives for the private sector to bring the necessary technologies to the marketplace. Aside from helping to assure that environmental goals are met in an economically efficient manner, climate policy can also serve as an enabler of new technologies. By recognizing the acute shortage of low-cost substitutes, the long lead times required for development and deployment, and the market failures that impede technological progress, climate policy can play an important role in reducing the long-term costs of the transition.

An Exploration of the Use of Expressive Writing to Reduce Physical and Emotional symptoms Associated with Stress in a Sample of Orthodox Jewish Wives Preparing for a Religious Observance

The purpose of the study was to determine the effects of a short-term expressive writing intervention using a value-laden topic and neutral topic on the physical and psychological well-being of a group of Orthodox Jewish wives preparing for a religious observance. Participants (N = 42) were assigned to the experimental group (n = 22) and to the control group (n = 20) on a rotating basis, in the order of which they first logged into the survey website. The physical well-being of participants was measured by reduced scores on the PILL for physical symptoms associated with stress. Psychological well-being was measured by using the subscale scores on the MAACL-R for anxiety, hostility, and depression. Results from the data collection were analyzed using a Multivariate Analysis of Variance for within group differences on the measures and a Multivariate Analysis of Covariance for the between group differences on the measures with pretest scores used as the covariate. Results indicated no within group differences pre- and post-test on the subscales of the MAACL-R with the exception of the PILL. A statistically significant main effect for the pretest scores and the post-test scores suggests that the participants may have had a reduction in physical symptoms regardless of the writing prompt they received. The multivariate tests indicated two main effects for covariates but no main effect for group membership. Follow-up analysis comparing the post-test scores on the PILL indicated that there was a statistically significant difference between the scores reported by the experimental and control groups. This difference indicated that the control group reported fewer physical symptoms of stress following the writing intervention. Additionally, the main effect for the Pretest and post-test responses on the dependent measures indicated that a change in responses did occur following the writing intervention. Discussion of the results and how they relate to the literature are included. Implications of the investigation and recommendations for future research are also included

Moving Beyond Concentrations: The Challenge of Limiting Temperature Change

The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change shifted the attention of the policy community from stabilizing greenhouse gas emissions to stabilizing atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. While this represents a step forward, it does not go far enough. We find that, given the uncertainty in the climate system, focusing on atmospheric concentrations is likely to convey a false sense of precision. The causal chain between human activity and impacts is laden with uncertainty. From a benefit-cost perspective, it would be desirable to minimize the sum of mitigation costs and damages. Unfortunately, our ability to quantify and value impacts is limited. For the time being, we must rely on a surrogate. Focusing on temperature rather than on concentrations provides much more information on what constitutes an ample margin of safety. Concentrations mask too many uncertainties that are crucial for policy making.

Infinitival Clauses in Children With Typical and Late Language Emergence: Supporting a Dimensional Account of Language Delay

Children who do not speak single words by 2 years of age have been labeled as having late language emergence (LLE). While the majority of children with LLE recover by school-age, it has been argued that they often still perform below the level of their typical peers for specific linguistic skills. In this case, speech-language pathologists (SLPs) should consider language skills as varying along a dimension, rather than as simply impaired vs. unimpaired. To examine the dimensionality of language skill, this study compared infinitival clause production in 22 school-age children with and without LLE. The infinitive clauses were: catenatives, such as gonna; let us + verb, typically produced as let’s; unmarked infinitives such as make it go; and simple infinitives such as We want to run. The 22 participants included 11 with typical development and 11 with a history of LLE, sampled in a conversational context at 8-years of age. Analysis indicated that the groups did not statistically differ for use of the four types of infinitival clauses. However, the LLE group did use fewer simple infinitives, offering support for a dimensional model of language development

Keeping Calm and Carrying On: Relating Proactive Personality, Affect Spin, and Affect Pulse to Learning and Adaptive Task Performance

The purpose of this laboratory study involving 214 undergraduate students learning a complex videogame was to address the gaps in the empirical literature regarding the non-cognitive traits that comprise the construct of adaptability, specifically proactive personality and two aspects of affect variability—spin and pulse. Proactive personality was hypothesized to positively impact performance through effort. Two mechanisms for the influence of affect variability were hypothesized: (1) undermining effort directly and (2) undermining the effort-performance relationship. Results showed that proactive personality explained no additional variance in effort or performance beyond the Big Five personality dimensions. Affect variability negatively impacted performance through both of the proposed mechanisms, and also by directly undermining performance. It was theorized that these results are due to the additional cognitive resources required to regulate emotion, along with the haphazard application of performance strategies driven by emotion fluctuations. Implications for a better understanding of the traits that comprise adaptability are discussed, specifically people’s capacity to be successful in environments characterized by unexpected changes in task demands or the need for sustained effort and continuous learning. Keywords: Proactive personality, affect variability, skill acquisition, adaptive performance, complex task learning, self-regulated learnin

Finding Balance: The Impact of Emotional Variability on the Stress and Well-Being of Collegiate Dance Students

The purpose of this qualitative longitudinal study involving 18 undergraduate dance majors was to address the gaps in the empirical literature regarding the potential impact of emotional variability on the stress and well-being of collegiate dance students. Specifically, using daily, repeated measures over the course of 4 weeks in the Fall semester of 2020, combined with additional surveys early and later in the semester, I examined how differences in affect spin and affect pulse were related to differences in well-being, including but not limited to measures of stress (both distress [i.e., strain] and eustress [i.e., thriving, challenge]), subjective well-being, and role conflict. In particular, the use of robust qualitative data gathered from open-ended questions regarding emotional experiences and perceptions of the impact (i.e., harm versus benefit) of emotions were examined in tandem with the quantitative data in order to produce a full understanding of the experience of emotional fluctuations in dance. Additionally, I examined if differences exist between ballet (n = 10) and modern dancers (n = 8). In general, dancers reported experiencing a plethora of stressors, primarily associated with the experience of negative emotions. These negative emotions impacted their ability to succeed as collegiate dance students by impacting their ability to maintain a sense of balance and by amplifying feelings of existing strain. On the positive side, emotions were perceived by dancers in the current study to contribute to their emotional artistry, which participants considered to be a key aspect of their performance. Results showed greater strain and negative emotional events by those higher in affect variability, particularly affect spin. This extended into emphasis effects, with those majoring in modern dance exhibiting higher levels of affect spin as well as more negative outcomes in terms of strain and less well-being compared to ballet majors. Results are discussed in terms of future considerations for continued research and practical intervention

Integrative Assessment of Mitigation, Impacts, and Adaptation to Climate Change

This volume presents the proceedings of the second international workshop held at IIASA in October 1993 assessing the current state of integrated assessments. Numerous models and less formalized approaches analyze anthropogenic sources of greenhouse gas emissions, their concentrations in the atmosphere, the resulting climate forcing, impacts of the induced climate change on the economy and other human activities, as well as possible mitigation and adaptation strategies. Studies that include all or several of these salient aspects of the climate change problematique are known as integrative assessments. The number of such studies is increasing, highlighting the need for consistent analytic frameworks and comparative analyses. This volume reviews the current practice of integrative assessments, directions for improvement and further research, and implications for climate change policies. The workshop covered issues such as the role of science, integrated assessment, impacts and benefits, mitigation and adaptation, intergenerational assessments, and the role of technology. The volume includes the original papers presented at the workshop