Smooth, identifiable supermodels of discrete DAG models with latent variables

We provide a parameterization of the discrete nested Markov model, which is a supermodel that approximates DAG models (Bayesian network models) with latent variables. Such models are widely used in causal inference and machine learning. We explicitly evaluate their dimension, show that they are curved exponential families of distributions, and fit them to data. The parameterization avoids the irregularities and unidentifiability of latent variable models. The parameters used are all fully identifiable and causally-interpretable quantities.Comment: 30 page

Characterizing the uncertainty in holddown post load measurements

In order to understand unexpectedly erratic load measurements in the launch-pad supports for the space shuttle, the sensitivities of the load cells in the supports were analyzed using simple probabilistic techniques. NASA engineers use the loads in the shuttle's supports to calculate critical stresses in the shuttle vehicle just before lift-off. The support loads are measured with 'load cells' which are actually structural components of the mobile launch platform which have been instrumented with strain gauges. Although these load cells adequately measure vertical loads, the horizontal load measurements have been erratic. The load measurements were simulated in this study using Monte Carlo simulation procedures. The simulation studies showed that the support loads are sensitive to small deviations in strain and calibration. In their current configuration, the load cells will not measure loads with sufficient accuracy to reliably calculate stresses in the shuttle vehicle. A simplified model of the holddown post (HDP) load measurement system was used to study the effect on load measurement accuracy for several factors, including load point deviations, gauge heights, and HDP geometry

Partitioning of carbon dioxide between the atmosphere and lithosphere on early Mars

It is pointed out that in addition to the 1 to 5 bar CO2 total inventory, a high level of global volcanism was needed to keep the CO2 from being drawn away permanently by weathering of igneous rocks; the volcanism would continually decompose the carbonate resulting in steady efficient recycling

Millimetre and submillimetre molecular line observations of the reflection nebula NGC 2023

Observations in the CO J = 2 - 1, CO J = 3 - 2 and HCO+ J = 4 - 3 transitions of the molecular cloud associated with NGC 2023 are presented. The observations reveal the complex structure of the gas in the surrounding cloud, and show the presence of several hot-spots which may represent separate bodies of gas. A search has been made for the source of excitation of two nearby groups of Herbig-Haro objects recently discovered by Malin et al. (1987). No such objects can be clearly identified from the data. CO J = 3 - 2 spectra taken at positions lying on the CO J = 1 - 0 shell observed by Gatley et al. (1987) show marked enhancements in peak line strength relative to coincident CO J = 2 - 1 data. By contrast, no such enhancements are observed away from the shell. Observations of the submillimeter wavelength HCO+ J = 4 - 3 transition show that the line strength is greatest in the vicinity of the shell structure. Simple large velocity gradient modeling of the excitation conditions of the shell material suggests that the gas may be hot (Tkin ~ 140 K), dense, and optically thin

Sunward-propagating Alfv\'enic fluctuations observed in the heliosphere

The mixture/interaction of anti-sunward-propagating Alfv\'enic fluctuations (AFs) and sunward-propagating Alfv\'enic fluctuations (SAFs) is believed to result in the decrease of the Alfv\'enicity of solar wind fluctuations with increasing heliocentric distance. However, SAFs are rarely observed at 1 au and solar wind AFs are found to be generally outward. Using the measurements from Voyager 2 and Wind, we perform a statistical survey of SAFs in the heliosphere inside 6 au. We first report two SAF events observed by Voyager 2. One is in the anti-sunward magnetic sector with a strong positive correlation between the fluctuations of magnetic field and solar wind velocity. The other one is in the sunward magnetic sector with a strong negative magnetic field-velocity correlation. Statistically, the percentage of SAFs increases gradually with heliocentric distance, from about 2.7% at 1.0 au to about 8.7% at 5.5 au. These results provide new clues for understanding the generation mechanism of SAFs