Diel surface temperature range scales with lake size

Ecological and biogeochemical processes in lakes are strongly dependent upon water temperature. Long-term surface warming of many lakes is unequivocal, but little is known about the comparative magnitude of temperature variation at Diel timescales, due to a lack of appropriately resolved data. Here we quantify the pattern and magnitude of Diel temperature variability of surface waters using high-frequency data from 100 lakes. We show that the near-surface Diel temperature range can be substantial in summer relative to long-term change and, for lakes smaller than 3 km2, increases sharply and predictably with decreasing lake area. Most small lakes included in this study experience average summer Diel ranges in their near-surface temperatures of between 4 and 7°C. Large Diel temperature fluctuations in the majority of lakes undoubtedly influence their structure, function and role in biogeochemical cycles, but the full implications remain largely unexplored

The dilemma of disappearing diatoms: incorporating diatom dissolution data into palaeoenvironmental modelling and reconstruction

The problem of microfossil preservation, specifically diatom dissolution, remains an important, but often overlooked, source of error in both qualitative and quantitative reconstructions of key variables from fossil samples, especially those using relative abundance data. A first step to tackling this complex issue is establishing an objective method of assessing preservation (here, diatom dissolution) that can be applied by different analysts and incorporated into routine counting strategies. Here, we establish a methodology for assessment of diatom dissolution under standard light microscopy (LM) illustrated with morphological criteria for a range of major diatom valve shapes. Dissolution data can be applied to numerical models (transfer functions) from contemporary samples, and to fossil material to aid interpretation of stratigraphic profiles and taphonomic pathways of individual taxa. Using a surface sediment diatom-salinity training set from the Northern Great Plains (NGP) as an example, we explore a variety of approaches to including dissolution data in salinity inference models indirectly and directly. Results show that dissolution data can improve models, with apparent dissolution-adjusted error (RMSE) up to 15% lower that their unadjusted counterparts. Internal validation suggests improvements are more modest, with bootstrapped prediction errors (RMSEP) up to 10% lower. When tested on a short core from Devils Lake, North Dakota, which has a historical record of salinity, dissolution-adjusted models infer higher values compared to unadjusted models during peak salinity of the 1930s-40s Dust Bowl but nonetheless significantly underestimate peak values. Site-specific factors at Devils Lake associated with effects of lake level change on taphonomy (preservation and reworking, implied by dissolution data) may override model improvements incorporating dissolution.Dissolution-adjusted salinity models are also applied to a 150-yr sediment record from Spiritwood Lake, North Dakota, which suggests that this lake has a damped and lagged response to major regional climate forcing of salinity during the Dust Bowl. At this site, dissolution data also suggest different taphonomic behaviour of taxa related to their seasonal patterns of growth and sedimentation. Thus, dissolution data can improve models, and aid interpretation of sedimentary profiles as records of limnological, ecological and environmental change, filtered by taphonomy

Relationship between the diel range in lake surface water temperature and surface area.

<p>Relationship between the observed (light violet circles) and theoretical (red circles) diel surface temperature range with lake area during summer, with the solid line illustrating the fitted generalised additive model with 95% confidence interval shown by the shaded region; lake surface areas where the diel temperature range changes significantly (P < 0.001) are shown with a red line.</p

Temporal variability in near-surface lake water temperature.

<p>(a) Seasonal variability in the diel temperature range for 96 Northern Hemisphere lakes with 95% confidence intervals (note that not all lakes had data for the whole year). (b) Individually normalized (zero-mean) summer average diel cycle for the lakes that had the highest (red) and lowest (blue) 10% of diel temperature ranges measured. The bold lines represent the mean diel cycle for the 10% considered and the horizontal black line indicates zero. For clarity, we excluded Jekl Bog, which had the highest diel cycle, from this figure. (c) Example of hourly-resolution near-surface lake water temperature variation at Jekl Bog (surface area 2.5 x 10³ m², red), and Sparkling Lake (surface area 6.2 x 10⁵ m², blue), both situated in Wisconsin, USA.</p

Summary output from the fitted statistical model.

<p>Summary of the model used to describe the influence of surface area (A₀), the percent transmission per metre (I_z), altitude above sea level (h), and latitude (φ), as shown in <a href="http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0152466#pone.0152466.e003" target="_blank">Eq 3</a>, on the diel surface temperature range. EDF is the effective degrees of freedom for the spline representing each covariate. Ref. DF is the reference degrees of freedom used in the statistical test of “no effect” for each smooth. F is the test statistic and <i>p</i> the approximate <i>p</i>-value of the test. <i>I</i>_<i>z</i> is the percent transmission per meter.</p

Fitted splines for the Generalised Additive Model.

<p>The y-axis is the additive contribution of the spline to the fitted model over the range of the covariate. The smooth functions are subject to centring constraints and are plotted here on different scales for clarity. The shaded region is an approximate 95% confidence interval on the function; however, it excludes uncertainty in the model's constant term, β₀, hence the narrowness of the interval at the “middle” of the distribution for the smooths of altitude and latitude.</p

First derivatives of the fitted generalised additive model.

<p>The red line indicates those parts of the model fit that are statistically significantly changing and the shaded region shows the 95% confidence intervals.</p

Estimated ecological and biogeochemical consequences of the diel surface temperature range.

<p>Potential bias in estimates of CO₂ and O₂ solubility and rates of processes with Q₁₀ values of 2 or 4 for a diel temperature range of 1 (blue) or 7°C (red).</p