DO ECONOMIC FORECASTERS BELIEVE THE STOCK MARKET IS EFFICIENT? EVIDENCE FROM GERMANY

The perception of market efficiency is quite different from the reality of market efficiency.  We show using a large survey of German market forecasters that few respondents consistently believe that the stock market is currently efficient and will remain so.  Past volatility tends to erode the view that the market is efficient and strengthen the belief that the market is inefficient.&nbsp

La deconstrucción de la universidad

Alguna vez se le preguntó al difunto presidente de la Universidad de Chicago, Robert Hutchins, qué era lo que andaba mal con la educación superior. "Muy simple -contestó- los estudiantes no quieren aprender y los profesores no quieren enseñar". No mucho después, un académico británico expatriado, con trabajo en Berkeley, sugirió la siguiente reforma académica: "Tome a cada profesor de tiempo completo y por cada libro, artículo o monografía que publique, adjudíquele una reducción proporcional en su salario. Trate de imaginar los beneficios, especialmente el silencio". En este artículo, trato de ofrecer una interpretación de estos dos comentarios interrelacionados. (…

Cough and the common cold

To determine whether the cough of the common cold arises from upper respiratory stimuli and whether antihistamine-decongestant therapy is an effective treatment for this cough, we prospectively evaluated volunteers with uncomplicated common colds in a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled study. After completing a standardized questionnaire and undergoing a physical examination, throat-culturing, and pulmonary function testing, subjects took the active drug or identical-appearing placebo for 7 days while they kept a diary in which they ranked the severity of 17 symptoms for 14 days. Pulmonary function testing was repeated, on average, on Days 4, 8, and 14. Forty-six percent of the variation in cough severity could be explained by throat-clearing and 47% of the variation in throat-clearing severity by postnasal drip. FIF50%, the only physiologic parameter that significantly correlated with cough, rose as cough severity fell. Antihistamine-decongestant therapy reduced postnasal drip and significantly decreased the severity of cough, nasal obstruction, nasal discharge, and throat-clearing during the first few days of the common cold. In addition, cough was 20 to 30% less prevalent in the active drug group within 3 days of starting therapy. We conclude that the cough of the common cold arose from upper respiratory tract stimuli and that cough and other cardinal symptoms of the common cold were reduced with antihistamine-decongestant therapy when these symptoms were at their worst