Climate Science: Is it currently designed to answer questions?

For a variety of inter-related cultural, organizational, and political reasons, progress in climate science and the actual solution of scientific problems in this field have moved at a much slower rate than would normally be possible. Not all these factors are unique to climate science, but the heavy influence of politics has served to amplify the role of the other factors. Such factors as the change in the scientific paradigm from a dialectic opposition between theory and observation to an emphasis on simulation and observational programs, the inordinate growth of administration in universities and the consequent increase in importance of grant overhead, and the hierarchical nature of formal scientific organizations are cosidered. This paper will deal with the origin of the cultural changes and with specific examples of the operation and interaction of these factors. In particular, we will show how political bodies act to control scientific institutions, how scientists adjust both data and even theory to accommodate politically correct positions, and how opposition to these positions is disposed of.Comment: 36 pages, no figures. v2: footnotes 16, 19, 20 added, footnote 17 changed, typos corrected. v3: description of John Holdren corrected, expanded discussion of I=PAT formula, typos corrected. v4: The reference to Deming (2005) added in v3 stated that a 1995 email in question was from Jonathan Overpeck. In fact, Deming had left the sender of the email unnamed. The revision v4 now omits the identification of Overpeck. However, the revision v4 now includes a more recent and verifiable reference to a 2005 emai

Globalne ocieplenie: przyczyny i natura domniemanego naukowego konsensusu

“Global warming” is perceived in the literate word as both real and dangerous. However many aspects of the catastrophic scenario have already been largely discounted by the scientific community. In this paper I shall review the science associated with global change, including lack of conformance of data from computer models with data taken from the satellite measures.„Globalne ocieplenie” jest obecnie postrzegane jako zjawisko zarówno realne, jak i niebezpieczne. Zarazem wiele aspektów przygotowywanego katastroficznego scenariusza zostało w znacznym stopniu podważonych przez społeczność naukowców. W tej pracy dokonuję krótkiego przeglądu zagadnień naukowych związanych  z globalnymi zmianami klimatycznymi, w tym braku zgodności danych uzyskanych z obliczeń modelowych z danymi uzyskanymi na drodze pomiarów satelitarnych

Session G: Nuclear Power/Climate Change – Climate v. Climate Alarm

The underlying physics of climate contains important elements that are widely agreed on though frequently misunderstood. In this lecture, the basic physics of greenhouse warming are simply described. It will be shown that the dynamic mixing of the troposphere is essential to the mechanism. It will further be shown that there is nothing intrinsically alarming in the basic physics. Alarm depends critically on the assertion that the climate system is dominated by large positive feedbacks that greatly amplify such warming as may be due to increasing CO2 alone. The nature of possible feedbacks will be described, and the conditions for observationally determining such feedbacks will be explained. It will be seen that the feedback factors, themselves, can be subject to fluctuations, so that large positive feedbacks could occasionally lead to instability. A variety of attempts to evaluate such feedbacks will be described. Some will be shown to be clearly incorrect. The remaining approaches suggest that feedbacks are small and even negative, suggesting little basis for alarm

The Mutual Interaction between Continental-Scale Ice Sheets and Atmospheric Stationary Waves

The great continental ice sheets of the Pleistocene represented significant obstacles to the Northern Hemisphere midlatitude westerlies. They must therefore have forced large changes in the atmospheric circulation, and con-sequently also in the patterns of accumulation and melting over the ice sheets themselves. A simplified three-dimensional coupled ice sheet–stationary wave model is developed in order to understand the ice sheet’s response to the circulation changes that it induces. Consistent with ice age climate simulations, the ice sheet topography induces an anticyclonic circulation over the ice sheet, causing a slight warming over the western slopes and a stronger cooling over the remainder. The modeled feedbacks significantly affect the ice sheet configuration, with the most important influences being the patterns of summer temperature, and the topographically induced pre-cipitation field. The time evolution of the ice sheet is also changed by the atmospheric feedbacks and the results suggest the possibility of multiple equilibrium solutions. 1

On the Theory of the Diurnal Tide

Laplace's tidal equation for diurnal tides of longitudinal number one is investigated. It is found that in addition to the previously found solutions (Hough Functions) corresponding to positive equivalent depths there are also Hough Functions corresponding to negative equivalent depths. Both are necessary for the representation of observed tidal data. As an application of the Hough Functions the diurnal surface pressure oscillation resulting from diurnal variations in insolation is computed. It is found that the insolation model due to Siebert can account for only one-third of the observed pressure oscillation. In the study of at,mospheric tides, the diurnal tide has been relatively neglected; the semidiurnal tide has received most, of the attention. In recent years, however, with improved rocket data, it has been found that th

Climate Science: Is it currently designed to answer questions? 1

For a variety of inter-related cultural, organizational, and political reasons, progress in climate science and the actual solution of scientific problems in this field have moved at a much slower rate than would normally be possible. Not all these factors are unique to climate science, but the heavy influence of politics has served to amplify the role of the other factors. By cultural factors, I primarily refer to the change in the scientific paradigm from a dialectic opposition between theory and observation to an emphasis on simulation and observational programs. The latter serves to almost eliminate the dialectical focus of the former. Whereas the former had the potential for convergence, the latter is much less effective. The institutional factor has many components. One is the inordinate growth of administration in universities and the consequent increase in importance of grant overhead. This leads to an emphasis on large programs that never end. Another is the hierarchical nature of formal scientific organizations whereby a small executive council can speak on behalf of thousands of scientists as well as govern the distribution of ‘carrots and sticks ’ whereby reputations are made and broken. The above factors are all amplified by the need for government funding. When an issue becomes a vital part of a political agenda, as is the case with climate, then the politically desired position becomes a goal rather than a consequence of scientific research. This paper will deal with the origin of the cultural changes and with specific examples of the operation and interaction of these factors. In particular, we will show how political bodies act to control scientific institutions, how scientists adjust both data and even theory to accommodate politically correct positions, and how opposition to these positions is disposed of. 1 This paper was prepared for a meeting sponsored by Euresis (Associazone per la promozione e la diffusione della cultura e del lavoro scientifico) and the Templeton Foundatio