DROUGHT AND CLIMATE CHANGE: IMPLICATIONS FOR THE WEST

Environmental Economics and Policy,

Effects of Climate Change on Water Resources

Environmental Economics and Policy, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy, Q25, Q54,

The persistence of drought impacts across growing seasons: a dynamic stochastic analysis

Agricultural producers throughout much of the United States experienced one of the most severe droughts in the last 100 years during the years 1999-2006. The prolonged nature of this drought highlights a need to better understand the impacts and management of drought across growing seasons, rather than just within a growing season. Producers express specific concern about the tendency of drought impacts to persist even after drought itself has subsided. The persistence of drought impacts has received limited attention in the economics literature. The objectives of this study are two-fold: 1) to determine whether inter-year dynamics, in the form of agronomic constraints and financial flows, can cause persistence of a drought's impact in years subsequent to the drought, and 2) to determine whether the impact of one year of drought can alter the impact of a subsequent year of drought. A multi-year, dynamic and stochastic decision model is developed in a discrete stochastic programming framework and solved to address the objectives. The structure and parameters of the farm-level model are based on irrigated row crop farms in eastern Oregon, USA. Analysis of the model's solution reveals the following results: 1) the impact of a drought can persist long after the drought subsides, and 2) the impact of one year of drought can alter the impact of a subsequent year of drought. Potential implications for the administration of drought-related assistance are discussed briefly.Drought, preparedness, response, uncertainty, dynamics, discrete stochastic programming, agriculture, irrigation, eastern Oregon, row crops, crop rotation, Crop Production/Industries, Risk and Uncertainty,

On Price-Taking Behavior in Asymmetric Information Economies

It is understood that rational expectations equilibria may not be incentive compatible: agents with private information may be able to affect prices through the information conveyed by their market behavior. We present a simple general equilibrium model to illustrate the connection between the notion of informational size presented in McLean and Postlewaite (2002) and the incentive properties of market equilibria. Specifically, we show that fully revealing market equilibria are not incentive compatible for an economy with few privately informed producers because of the producers’ informational size, but that replicating the economy decreases agents’ informational size. For sufficiently large economies, there exists an incentive compatible fully revealing market equilibrium.Rational Expectations Equilibria, Informational Smallness

Some aspects of the geochemistry of fluorine in metamorphic bocks

The literature on the determination of fluoride is reviewed. Attention Is given to its analysis in silicate materials, especially rocks and minerals; developments in method are traced from the first work, published in 1816, to the present. Special emphasis is given for the period 1951 through 1959, Important methods and other pertinent work and findings being summarized chronologically by subject and without regard to systematic exposition of contradictions or their explanation: The summaries of some work are nevertheless detailed enough to make manifest some contradictions. Conflicting findings on the precision in the visual thorium titration and on the visual ratings of various Indicators for this titration are thought merely to reflect Individual skill and choice rather than superiority of method and (or) indicator. A strong case is thereby made for Instrumental methods of analysis. A method developed to determine fluoride in metamorphic rocks Is described. A sodium peroxide decomposition, followed by a precipitation of silica and alumina and a steam distillation of the filtrates, gave quantitative isolation of fluoride. Aliquot8 of distillate were titrated spectrephotometric ally in perchloric acid-sodium sulfanilate buffered solution in the presence of sodium 2-(p-sulfophenylazo)-1,8-dlbydroxy- naphthalene-3,6-dlsulfonate (SPADNS). The method was tested with synthetic rocks and soda feldspar, to which known amounts, ) of fluoride were added. Aliquots were titrated spectrephoto metrically to within one microgram of fluoride. Results with G-l and w-1 are compared with analyses reported by others. Replicate results for ten raetamorphic rocks indicate a maximum proportional deviation of 2.0 percent. However, further replications have shown the error is somewhat greater, although nevertheless favorable: The standard deviation for 122 replicate determinations is +0.0014. percent fluoride for rocks having up to 0.09 percent fluoride. The applicability of the perchloric acid-sodium sulfanilate buffer for the thorium titration is examined. It is felt it is superior to the monochloracetlc acid buffer commonly used. The results of an Interlaboratory standardization program conducted to check the validity of several methods and the comparability of results and to suggest possible superior methods of analysis are presented. Agreement is not favorable when all results are compared; possible matrix effects for pyrolltic and chemical methods are considered. Four of the eight procedures employed show favorable agreement, aspects of which are studied. Work, carried out on synthetic solutions containing the elements commonly analyzed in the "main portion" of silicate rock analysis, is given and discussed. Minor modifications, mainly in technique, of the generally accepted methods are detailed. An important improvement in the examination of the calcium oxide and magnesium pyrophosphate precipitates for impurities such as strontium in the former and calcium and manganese In the latter has been developed. Considerable attention Is given to the problem of determining "blanks" for this part of silicate rock analysis

Democratic Renewal and the Civil Jury

The United States is in a period of democratic decline. Waning commitment to principles of self-governance throughout the polity necessitates urgent action to revitalize the Republic. The civil jury offers an often-overlooked avenue for such democratic renewal. Welcoming laypeople into the courthouse and deputizing them as constitutional actors demonstrates a profound faith in representative governance and results in wide-reaching and pronounced sociopolitical and administrative benefits. The Seventh Amendment of the U.S. Constitution and similar state provisions protect the rights of litigants to jury trials in most circumstances. But these promises have been hollowed over time through legal, political, and practical challenges. The result is that civil juries play a more minor role in resolving civil disputes today than at any other point in American history. If the civil jury is to serve as a locus of democratic power and as an emboldening civic experience for those who serve, it too must be renewed. To this end, this Article offers six research-based recommendations, informed by the distinctive approach that jurors bring to decision-making as well as the sociopolitical benefits that undergird the institution. Adopting these strategies can help reintroduce democracy into the civil justice system, and in doing so, can help direct America back toward the nation’s democratic aspirations

The Effect of the Pendency of Claims for Compensation Upon Behavior Indicative of Pain

Recent theories endeavoring to explain manifestations of pain in humans have increasingly recognized the effect of sociological and psychological processes on pain.This article reports findings made in a research project based on the hypothesis that the pendency of a claim for compensation has the effect of causing greater, more intense, and more persistent pain than would otherwise be experienced if persons had not sought compensation. The study assumed that pain can most accurately be measured by observing behavior indicative of pain and focused on data reflecting such behavior. The lawyer-author of this article thought the study might demonstrate that current compensation practices are a significant cause of pain behavior, and anticipated that such a finding could lead to revision of claims procedures or even changes in methods of compensation. The project revealed, however, no significant effects of either litigation or representation by attorneys upon the pain behavior of persons having workmen\u27s compensation claims with the Department of Labor and Industries of the State of Washington