The observed number of cells with bacteria (blue) compared with 95% credibility intervals (red) predicted by Model 3 with respect to the virulent strain.

<p>The observed number of cells with bacteria (blue) compared with 95% credibility intervals (red) predicted by Model 3 with respect to the virulent strain.</p

The observed number of cells with bacteria (blue) compared with 95% credibility intervals (red) predicted by Model 11 with respect to the attenuated strain.

<p>The observed number of cells with bacteria (blue) compared with 95% credibility intervals (red) predicted by Model 11 with respect to the attenuated strain.</p

The observed number of cells with bacteria (blue) compared with 95% credibility intervals (red) predicted by Model 5 with respect to the virulent strain.

<p>The observed number of cells with bacteria (blue) compared with 95% credibility intervals (red) predicted by Model 5 with respect to the virulent strain.</p

Estimates of the marginal probability distributions and .

<p> is data from the virulent strain.</p

Median estimated for Models 1 to 6.

<p>The highest model evidence (bold) and second highest model evidence (italic) models are highlighted.</p

The observed number of cells with bacteria (blue) compared with 95% credibility intervals (red) predicted by Model 7 with respect to the attenuated strain.

<p>The observed number of cells with bacteria (blue) compared with 95% credibility intervals (red) predicted by Model 7 with respect to the attenuated strain.</p

Density scatter plot of the estimated joint probability distribution .

<p> is data from the virulent strain.</p

Estimates of the posterior model probabilities when using data from (A) the attenuated strain and (B) the virulent strain.

<p>Estimates of the posterior model probabilities when using data from (A) the attenuated strain and (B) the virulent strain.</p

Density scatter plot of the estimated joint probability distribution .

<p> is data from the attenuated strain.</p

Parameters used for the eight stochastic models based on (15) and (16).

<p>For each model, some of the parameters were set equal to constant values, which effectively removed the parameters from the model. The range of values considered were and .</p