Leading economic indexes for New York State and New Jersey

The authors develop indexes of leading economic indicators for New York State and New Jersey over the 1972-99 period. They find that the leading indexes convey useful information about the future course of economic activity in both states. The authors then construct separate indexes to forecast recessions and expansions in each state. The movements of the recession and expansion indexes are found to display a close relationship with the behavior of the leading indexes. Accordingly, the recession and expansion indexes allow the authors to extend the informational content of the leading indexes by estimating the probability of an upcoming cyclical change in state economic activity within the next nine months.Economic indicators ; New York (State) ; New Jersey ; Index numbers (Economics) ; Economic conditions - United States ; Federal Reserve District, 2nd

Tracking productivity in real time

Because volatile short-term movements in productivity growth obscure the underlying trend, shifts in this trend may go unrecognized for years - a lag that can lead to policy mistakes and hence economic instability. This study develops a model for tracking productivity that brings in additional variables to help reveal the trend. The model's success is evident in its ability to detect changes in trend productivity within a year or two of their occurrence. Currently, the model indicates that the underlying trend remains strong despite recent weak productivity data.Industrial productivity - Measurement ; Economic policy ; Econometric models

Which fundamental constants for cosmic microwave background and baryon-acoustic oscillation?

International audienceWe use the three-scale framework of Hu et al. to show how the cosmic microwave background (CMB) anisotropy spectrum depends on the fundamental constants. As expected, the spectrum depends only on dimensionless combinations of the constants, and we emphasize the points that make this generally true for cosmological observables. Our analysis suggests that the CMB spectrum shape is mostly determined by α2me/mp and by mp/mχ, the proton-CDM-particle mass ratio. The distance to the last-scattering surface depends on Gmpmχ/ ħc, so published CMB observational limits on time variations of the constants implicitly assume the time independence of this quantity, as well as a flat-ΛCDM cosmological model. On the other hand, low-redshift baryon-acoustic oscillation, H0, and baryon-mass-fraction measurements can be combined with the shape of the CMB spectrum to give information that is largely independent of these assumptions. In particular, we show that the pre-recombination values of Gm2χ/ħc, mp/mχ, and α2me/mp are equal to their present values at a precision of ~15%

Two new indexes offer a broad view of economic activity in the New York - New Jersey region

The authors develop two coincident indexes that provide a comprehensive measure of economic activity in New Jersey, New York State, and New York City.Federal Reserve District, 2nd ; Economic conditions - United States ; New York (N.Y.) ; New York (State) ; New Jersey ; Index numbers (Economics)

Friedmann-free limits on spatial curvature

We discuss limits on cosmological spatial curvature that can be derived without imposing the geometry-density relation required by the Friedmann equation. In particular, studies of the expansion history using stellar evolution in passive galaxies imply a curvature radius greater than the Hubble distance.Comment: 2 pages, zero figures, accepted by A&

The Bright Ages Survey. II. Evolution of Luminosity, Dust Extinction, and Star Formation from z = 0.5 to z = 2.5

The Bright Ages Survey is a K-band-selected redshift survey over six separate fields with UBVRIzJHK imaging covering a total of 75.6 arcmin(2) and reaching K = 20-20.5. Two fields have deep HST imaging, while all are centered on possible overdensities in the z similar to 2 range. Here we report photometric redshifts and spectroscopy for this sample, which has been described in Paper I. We find 18 galaxies with spectroscopic redshifts of z > 1:5. The derived rest-frame R-band luminosity functions show strong evolution out to z = 2. The luminosity function at z = 2 shows more bright galaxies than at any other epoch, even the extrapolated z = 3 luminosity function from Shapley et al. However, the R-band integrated luminosity density remains roughly constant from to z = 0:5 to z = 2. Evolved galaxies (E, S0, Sa) show a decreasing contribution to the total R-band luminosity density with redshift. The dust extinction in our K-selected sample is moderately larger [median z = 2 E(B - V) 0:30] than that found in Lyman break galaxies, although not enough to make a significant impact on the total light or star formation found at high redshift. We measure the extinction-corrected star formation rate density at z 2, finding ρ_(SFR)(z = 1.5-2.5)= 0.093 M_⊙ yr^(-1) Mpc^(-3), consistent with a relatively flat instantaneous star formation rate from z = 1-4

Cold emulsion polyvinyl bindability criteria

The purpose of this study is to evaluate new types of materials and technologies in the fast-changing bindery industry. An optimum binding method (OBM) is being determined by using different brands of cold emulsion polyvinyl acetate, different adhesive, binding methods, spine preparation, and papers. Testing is performed with a combination of materials and technologies to determine the actual binding strength and performance of adhesives. Results of the tests were analyzed statistically by Analysis of Variance (ANOVA), graphing, percent of change and ranking of values to find the optimum. The results of this study show some relationships of the factors, adhesives, binding styles, paper, and grain direction of paper when tested for pounds of pull using various types of tests; pagepull, cornerpull, subwaypull, pagepull after Universal Book Tester (UBT), and pagepull after tumble. The spine preparation was shown to be the most critical factor for the strength of the book. Other critical factors for strength were the kind and grain direction of the paper. The OBM was found using the perfo adhesive binding method, adhesive B, and uncoated paper with the grain direction short. There were no 8, 16 or 32 page signatures used for the testing. Only 4 page signatures were used