Revealing Historic Invasion Patterns and Potential Invasion Sites for Two Non-Native Plant Species

The historical spatio-temporal distribution of invasive species is rarely documented, hampering efforts to understand invasion dynamics, especially at regional scales. Reconstructing historical invasions through use of herbarium records combined with spatial trend analysis and modeling can elucidate spreading patterns and identify susceptible habitats before invasion occurs. Two perennial species were chosen to contrast historic and potential phytogeographies: Japanese knotweed (Polygonum cuspidatum), introduced intentionally across the US; and mugwort (Artemisia vulgaris), introduced largely accidentally to coastal areas. Spatial analysis revealed that early in the invasion, both species have a stochastic distribution across the contiguous US, but east of the 90th meridian, which approximates the Mississippi River, quickly spread to adjacent counties in subsequent decades. In contrast, in locations west of the 90th meridian, many populations never spread outside the founding county, probably a result of encountering unfavorable environmental conditions. Regression analysis using variables categorized as environmental or anthropogenic accounted for 24% (Japanese knotweed) and 30% (mugwort) of the variation in the current distribution of each species. Results show very few counties with high habitat suitability (≥80%) remain un-invaded (5 for Japanese knotweed and 6 for mugwort), suggesting these perennials are reaching the limits of large-scale expansion. Despite differences in initial introduction loci and pathways, Japanese knotweed and mugwort demonstrate similar historic patterns of spread and show declining rates of regional expansion. Invasion mitigation efforts should be concentrated on areas identified as highly susceptible that border invaded regions, as both species demonstrate secondary expansion from introduction loci

Motoneuron membrane potentials follow a time inhomogeneous jump diffusion process

Stochastic leaky integrate-and-fire models are popular due to their simplicity and statistical tractability. They have been widely applied to gain understanding of the underlying mechanisms for spike timing in neurons, and have served as building blocks for more elaborate models. Especially the Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process is popular to describe the stochastic fluctuations in the membrane potential of a neuron, but also other models like the square-root model or models with a non-linear drift are sometimes applied. Data that can be described by such models have to be stationary and thus, the simple models can only be applied over short time windows. However, experimental data show varying time constants, state dependent noise, a graded firing threshold and time-inhomogeneous input. In the present study we build a jump diffusion model that incorporates these features, and introduce a firing mechanism with a state dependent intensity. In addition, we suggest statistical methods to estimate all unknown quantities and apply these to analyze turtle motoneuron membrane potentials. Finally, simulated and real data are compared and discussed. We find that a square-root diffusion describes the data much better than an Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process with constant diffusion coefficient. Further, the membrane time constant decreases with increasing depolarization, as expected from the increase in synaptic conductance. The network activity, which the neuron is exposed to, can be reasonably estimated to be a threshold version of the nerve output from the network. Moreover, the spiking characteristics are well described by a Poisson spike train with an intensity depending exponentially on the membrane potential

Competitive Interactions between Invasive Nile Tilapia and Native Fish: The Potential for Altered Trophic Exchange and Modification of Food Webs

Recent studies have highlighted both the positive and negative impacts of species invasions. Most of these studies have been conducted on either immobile invasive plants or sessile fauna found at the base of food webs. Fewer studies have examined the impacts of vagile invasive consumers on native competitors. This is an issue of some importance given the controlling influence that consumers have on lower order plants and animals. Here, we present results of laboratory experiments designed to assess the impacts of unintended aquaculture releases of the Nile tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus), in estuaries of the Gulf of Mexico, on the functionally similar redspotted sunfish (Lepomis miniatus). Laboratory choice tests showed that tilapia prefer the same structured habitat that native sunfish prefer. In subsequent interspecific competition experiments, agonistic tilapia displaced sunfish from their preferred structured habitats. When a piscivore (largemouth bass) was present in the tank with both species, the survival of sunfish decreased. Based on these findings, if left unchecked, we predict that the proliferation of tilapia (and perhaps other aggressive aquaculture fishes) will have important detrimental effects on the structure of native food webs in shallow, structured coastal habitats. While it is likely that the impacts of higher trophic level invasive competitors will vary among species, these results show that consequences of unintended releases of invasive higher order consumers can be important