Development of a Prediction Model for COVID-19 Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome in Patients With Rheumatic Diseases: Results From the Global Rheumatology Alliance Registry

OBJECTIVE: Some patients with rheumatic diseases might be at higher risk for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). We aimed to develop a prediction model for COVID-19 ARDS in this population and to create a simple risk score calculator for use in clinical settings. METHODS: Data were derived from the COVID-19 Global Rheumatology Alliance Registry from March 24, 2020, to May 12, 2021. Seven machine learning classifiers were trained on ARDS outcomes using 83 variables obtained at COVID-19 diagnosis. Predictive performance was assessed in a US test set and was validated in patients from four countries with independent registries using area under the curve (AUC), accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity. A simple risk score calculator was developed using a regression model incorporating the most influential predictors from the best performing classifier. RESULTS: The study included 8633 patients from 74 countries, of whom 523 (6%) had ARDS. Gradient boosting had the highest mean AUC (0.78; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.67-0.88) and was considered the top performing classifier. Ten predictors were identified as key risk factors and were included in a regression model. The regression model that predicted ARDS with 71% (95% CI: 61%-83%) sensitivity in the test set, and with sensitivities ranging from 61% to 80% in countries with independent registries, was used to develop the risk score calculator. CONCLUSION: We were able to predict ARDS with good sensitivity using information readily available at COVID-19 diagnosis. The proposed risk score calculator has the potential to guide risk stratification for treatments, such as monoclonal antibodies, that have potential to reduce COVID-19 disease progression

Associations of baseline use of biologic or targeted synthetic DMARDs with COVID-19 severity in rheumatoid arthritis: Results from the COVID-19 Global Rheumatology Alliance physician registry.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate baseline use of biologic or targeted synthetic (b/ts) disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs (DMARDs) and COVID-19 outcomes in rheumatoid arthritis (RA). METHODS: We analysed the COVID-19 Global Rheumatology Alliance physician registry (from 24 March 2020 to 12 April 2021). We investigated b/tsDMARD use for RA at the clinical onset of COVID-19 (baseline): abatacept (ABA), rituximab (RTX), Janus kinase inhibitors (JAKi), interleukin 6 inhibitors (IL-6i) or tumour necrosis factor inhibitors (TNFi, reference group). The ordinal COVID-19 severity outcome was (1) no hospitalisation, (2) hospitalisation without oxygen, (3) hospitalisation with oxygen/ventilation or (4) death. We used ordinal logistic regression to estimate the OR (odds of being one level higher on the ordinal outcome) for each drug class compared with TNFi, adjusting for potential baseline confounders. RESULTS: Of 2869 people with RA (mean age 56.7 years, 80.8% female) on b/tsDMARD at the onset of COVID-19, there were 237 on ABA, 364 on RTX, 317 on IL-6i, 563 on JAKi and 1388 on TNFi. Overall, 613 (21%) were hospitalised and 157 (5.5%) died. RTX (OR 4.15, 95% CI 3.16 to 5.44) and JAKi (OR 2.06, 95% CI 1.60 to 2.65) were each associated with worse COVID-19 severity compared with TNFi. There were no associations between ABA or IL6i and COVID-19 severity. CONCLUSIONS: People with RA treated with RTX or JAKi had worse COVID-19 severity than those on TNFi. The strong association of RTX and JAKi use with poor COVID-19 outcomes highlights prioritisation of risk mitigation strategies for these people

Enteropathic arthritis in Brazil: data from the Brazilian registry of spondyloarthritis

Inflammatory bowel diseases (Crohn's disease and ulcerative rectocolitis) have extraintestinal manifestations 25% of the patients, with the most common one being the enteropathic arthritis. Methods: Prospective, observational, multicenter study with patients from 29 reference centers participating in the Brazilian Registry of Spondyloarthritis (RBE), which incorporates the RESPONDIA (Ibero-American Registry of Spondyloarthritis) group. Demographic and clinical data were collected from 1472 patients and standardized questionnaires for the assessment of axial mobility, quality of life, enthesitic involvement, disease activity and functional capacity were applied. Laboratory and radiographic examinations were performed. The aim of this study is to compare the clinical, epidemiological, genetic, imaging, treatment and prognosis characteristics of patients with enteropathic arthritis with other types of spondyloarthritis in a large Brazilian cohort. Results: A total of 3.2% of patients were classified as having enteroarthritis, 2.5% had spondylitis and 0.7%, arthritis (peripheral predominance). The subgroup of individuals with enteroarthritis had a higher prevalence in women (P < 0.001), lower incidence of inflammatory axial pain (P < 0.001) and enthesitis (P = 0.004). HLA-B27 was less frequent in the group with enteroarthritis (P = 0.001), even when considering only those with the pure axial form. There was a lower prevalence of radiographic sacroiliitis (P = 0.009) and lower radiographic score (BASRI) (P = 0.006) when compared to patients with other types of spondyloarthritis. They also used more corticosteroids (P < 0.001) and sulfasalazine (P < 0.001) and less nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (P < 0.001) and methotrexate (P = 0.001). Conclusion: There were differences between patients with enteroarthritis and other types of spondyloarthritis, especially higher prevalence of females, lower frequency of HLA-B27, associated with less severe axial involvement. (C) 2013 Elsevier Editora Ltda. All rights reserved.536452459Wyeth/Pfizer BrazilFederico Foundatio