Scale Dependence of Overconfidence in Stock Market Volatility Forecasts

In this study, we analyze whether volatility forecasts (judgmental confidence intervals) are influenced by the specific elicitation mode (i.e. whether forecasters have to state future price levels or directly future returns as upper and lower bounds). We present questionnaire responses of about 250 students from two German universities. Participants were asked to state median forecasts as well as confidence intervals for seven stock market time series. Using a between subject design, one half of the subjects was asked to state future price levels, the other group was directly asked for returns. Consistent with prior research we find that subjects underestimate the volatility of stock returns, indicating overconfidence. As a new insight, we find that the strength of the overconfidence effect in stock market forecasts is highly significantly affected by the fact whether subjects provide price or return forecasts. Volatility estimates are lower (and the overconfidence bias is thus stronger) when subjects are asked for returns compared to price forecasts

The transfer of vaccine‐generated SARS‐CoV‐2 antibodies into infantile circulation via breastmilk

Synopsis The contents of this page will be used as part of issue TOC only. It will not be published as part of main article Vaccine-generated maternal anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgG antibodies are not transferred into infantile circulation via breastmilk

Comparison of four commercial SARS-CoV-2 IgG immuno-assays in RT-PCR negative patients with suspect CT findings

A subset of patients with Covid-19 presents with negative RT-PCR screening but suspect CT findings. Using four commercially available anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgG immuno-assays, we found this subset constituted 9.2% of all consecutively admitted outpatients with Covid-19 in our hospital. Clinical specificity for Covid-19 of some N protein-based immuno-assays was suboptimal, as positive results were observed in control patients with recent common human coronavirus, influenza B and adenovirus infections

A case of a surgical-site infection with Staphylococcus condimenti

Introduction Coagulase-negative staphylococci (CNS) are considered to have a medium or low pathogenic capacity when compared to S. aureus. Among the more harmless, CNS are those that are used in the food industry, represented by S. carnosus, whose genome has extensively been studied. Its genome was found to contain several genomic sequences that have a virulent function in the pathogenic S. aureus. Even though these genes are probably not virulent in S. carnosus, their presence might indicate a more virulent potential. We report the third clinical case associated with a surgical-site infection with S. condimenti, which belongs to these food industry related CNS. It corresponds to a blood stream infection, secondary to a surgical-site infection. Results Antibiotic susceptibility testing indicated a resistance to erythromycin and rifampicin, which was partly confirmed by the presence of a macrolide resistance gene by PCR screening for S. aureus virulence factors. Although no other putative virulence factors were detected, this organism managed to cause a severe post-operative wound infection. Conclusion This case shows that CNS that are currently used in the food industry may play a role in human infection. With technologies such as MALDI-TOF, pathogens that are regarded non-pathogenic could be identified more often. Therefore, the risk of different Staphylococcus strains used in the food industry must be better assessed