The role of GEOSS in monitoring ecosystems and their services

Global declines in biodiversity and ecosystem services have triggered national and international agreements to halt and reverse these trends (e.g. the Convention on Biological Diversity's target of achieving a significant reduction in the current rate of biodiversity loss by 2010). These agreements have highlighted the need for monitoring systems which accurately describe the conditions and trends of biodiversity and ecosystem services, as well as the drivers of change. GEOSS aims to contribute to these needs in the ecosystems and biodiversity benefit areas. We demonstrate the benefits of GEOSS in the monitoring and assessment of biodiversity and ecosystem services using a case study from a semi-arid biodiversity hotspot in South Africa. Using data poor (non-GEOSS) and data rich (GEOSS) scenarios we highlight the substantial differences found in biodiversity and ecosystem service condition. We link these findings to the need for careful and well informed management of ecosystems in semi-arid regions. We conclude with a summary of the costs and benefits of improved data

Conserving pattern and process in the Southern Ocean: designing a Marine Protected Area for the Prince Edward Islands

South Africa is currently proclaiming a Marine Protected Area (MPA) in the Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) of its sub-Antarctic Prince Edward Islands. The objectives of the MPA are to: 1) contribute to a national and global representative system of MPAs, 2) serve as a scientific reference point to inform future management, 3) contribute to the recovery of the Patagonian toothfish (Dissostichus eleginoides), and 4) reduce the bird bycatch of the toothfish fishery, particularly of albatrosses and petrels. This study employs systematic conservation planning methods to delineate a MPA within the EEZ that will conserve biodiversity patterns and processes within sensible management boundaries, while minimizing conflict with the legal toothfish fishery. After collating all available distributional data on species, benthic habitats and ecosystem processes, we used C-Plan software to delineate a MPA with three management zones: four IUCN Category Ia reserves (13% of EEZ); two Conservation Zones (21% of EEZ); and three Category IV reserves (remainder of EEZ). Compromises between conservation target achievement and the area required by the MPA are apparent in the final reserve design. The proposed MPA boundaries are expected to change over time as new data become available and as impacts of climate change become more evident

Estimation of wind storm impacts over Western Germany under future climate conditions using a statistical-dynamical downscaling approach

A statistical–dynamical regionalization approach is developed to assess possible changes in wind storm impacts. The method is applied to North Rhine-Westphalia (Western Germany) using the FOOT3DK mesoscale model for dynamical downscaling and ECHAM5/OM1 global circulation model climate projections. The method first classifies typical weather developments within the reanalysis period using K-means cluster algorithm. Most historical wind storms are associated with four weather developments (primary storm-clusters). Mesoscale simulations are performed for representative elements for all clusters to derive regional wind climatology. Additionally, 28 historical storms affecting Western Germany are simulated. Empirical functions are estimated to relate wind gust fields and insured losses. Transient ECHAM5/OM1 simulations show an enhanced frequency of primary storm-clusters and storms for 2060–2100 compared to 1960–2000. Accordingly, wind gusts increase over Western Germany, reaching locally +5% for 98th wind gust percentiles (A2-scenario). Consequently, storm losses are expected to increase substantially (+8% for A1B-scenario, +19% for A2-scenario). Regional patterns show larger changes over north-eastern parts of North Rhine-Westphalia than for western parts. For storms with return periods above 20 yr, loss expectations for Germany may increase by a factor of 2. These results document the method's functionality to assess future changes in loss potentials in regional terms

Evaluation of moisture sources for the Central European summer flood of May/June 2013 based on regional climate model simulations

Heavy precipitation affected Central Europe in May/June 2013, triggering damaging floods both on the Danube and the Elbe rivers. Based on a modelling approach with COSMO-CLM, moisture fluxes, backward trajectories, cyclone tracks and precipitation fields are evaluated for the relevant time period 30 May–2 June 2013. We identify potential moisture sources and quantify their contribution to the flood event focusing on the Danube basin through sensitivity experiments: Control simulations are performed with undisturbed ERA-Interim boundary conditions, while multiple sensitivity experiments are driven with modified evaporation characteristics over selected marine and land areas. Two relevant cyclones are identified both in reanalysis and in our simulations, which moved counter-clockwise in a retrograde path from Southeastern Europe over Eastern Europe towards the northern slopes of the Alps. The control simulations represent the synoptic evolution of the event reasonably well. The evolution of the precipitation event in the control simulations shows some differences in terms of its spatial and temporal characteristics compared to observations. The main precipitation event can be separated into two phases concerning the moisture sources. Our modelling results provide evidence that the two main sources contributing to the event were the continental evapotranspiration (moisture recycling; both phases) and the North Atlantic Ocean (first phase only). The Mediterranean Sea played only a minor role as a moisture source. This study confirms the importance of continental moisture recycling for heavy precipitation events over Central Europe during the summer half year

Decadal predictability of regional scale wind speed and wind energy potentials over Central Europe

Decadal predictions on timescales from one year to one decade are gaining importance since this time frame falls within the planning horizon of politics, economy and society. The present study examines the decadal predictability of regional wind speed and wind energy potentials in three generations of the MiKlip (‘Mittelfristige Klimaprognosen’) decadal prediction system. The system is based on the global Max-Planck-Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM), and the three generations differ primarily in the ocean initialisation. Ensembles of uninitialised historical and yearly initialised hindcast experiments are used to assess the forecast skill for 10 m wind speeds and wind energy output (Eout) over Central Europe with lead times from one year to one decade. With this aim, a statistical-dynamical downscaling (SDD) approach is used for the regionalisation. Its added value is evaluated by comparison of skill scores for MPI-ESM large-scale wind speeds and SDD-simulated regional wind speeds. All three MPI-ESM ensemble generations show some forecast skill for annual mean wind speed and Eout over Central Europe on yearly and multi-yearly time scales. This forecast skill is mostly limited to the first years after initialisation. Differences between the three ensemble generations are generally small. The regionalisation preserves and sometimes increases the forecast skills of the global runs but results depend on lead time and ensemble generation. Moreover, regionalisation often improves the ensemble spread. Seasonal Eout skills are generally lower than for annual means. Skill scores are lowest during summer and persist longest in autumn. A large-scale westerly weather type with strong pressure gradients over Central Europe is identified as potential source of the skill for wind energy potentials, showing a similar forecast skill and a high correlation with Eout anomalies. These results are promising towards the establishment of a decadal prediction system for wind energy applications over Central Europe

Developing ecosystem service indicators: experiences and lessons learned from sub-global assessments and other initiatives

People depend upon ecosystems to supply a range of services necessary for their survival and well-being. Ecosystem service indicators are critical for knowing whether or not these essential services are being maintained and used in a sustainable manner, thus enabling policy makers to identify the policies and other interventions needed to better manage them. As a result, ecosystem service indicators are of increasing interest and importance to governmental and inter-governmental processes, including amongst others the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) and the Aichi Targets contained within its strategic plan for 2011-2020, as well as the emerging Intergovernmental Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES). Despite this growing demand, assessing ecosystem service status and trends and developing robust indicators is o!en hindered by a lack of information and data, resulting in few available indicators. In response, the United Nations Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre (UNEP-WCMC), together with a wide range of international partners and supported by the Swedish International Biodiversity Programme (SwedBio)*, undertook a project to take stock of the key lessons that have been learnt in developing and using ecosystem service indicators in a range of assessment contexts. The project examined the methodologies, metrics and data sources employed in delivering ecosystem service indicators, so as to inform future indicator development. This report presents the principal results of this project

Conserving pattern and process in the Southern Ocean: designing a Marine Protected Area for the Prince Edward Islands

South Africa is currently proclaiming a Marine Protected Area (MPA) in the Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) of its sub-Antarctic Prince Edward Islands. The objectives of the MPA are to: 1) contribute to a national and global representative system of MPAs, 2) serve as a scientific reference point to inform future management, 3) contribute to the recovery of the Patagonian toothfish (Dissostichus eleginoides), and 4) reduce the bird bycatch of the toothfish fishery, particularly of albatrosses and petrels. This study employs systematic conservation planning methods to delineate a MPA within the EEZ that will conserve biodiversity patterns and processes within sensible management boundaries, while minimizing conflict with the legal toothfish fishery. After collating all available distributional data on species, benthic habitats and ecosystem processes, we used C-Plan software to delineate a MPA with three management zones: four IUCN Category Ia reserves (13% of EEZ); two Conservation Zones (21% of EEZ); and three Category IV reserves (remainder of EEZ). Compromises between conservation target achievement and the area required by the MPA are apparent in the final reserve design. The proposed MPA boundaries are expected to change over time as new data become available and as impacts of climate change become more evident

Heat and moisture budgets from airborne measurements and high-resolution model simulations

High-resolution simulations with a mesoscale model are performed to estimate heat and moisture budgets of a well-mixed boundary layer. The model budgets are validated against energy budgets obtained from airborne measurements over heterogeneous terrain in Western Germany. Time rate of change, vertical divergence, and horizontal advection for an atmospheric column of air are estimated. Results show that the time trend of specific humidity exhibits some deficiencies, while the potential temperature trend is matched accurately. Furthermore, the simulated turbulent surface fluxes of sensible and latent heat are comparable to the measured fluxes, leading to similar values of the vertical divergence. The analysis of different horizontal model resolutions exhibits improved surface fluxes with increased resolution, a fact attributed to a reduced aggregation effect. Scale-interaction effects could be identified: while time trends and advection are strongly influenced by mesoscale forcing, the turbulent surface fluxes are mainly controlled by microscale processes