Spatial and temporal analysis of haemorrhagic septicaemia outbreaks in India over three decades (1987–2016)

Haemorrhagic septicaemia (HS) is an economically important disease affecting cattle and buffaloes and the livelihoods of small-holder farmers that depend upon them. The disease is caused by Gram-negative bacterium, Pasteurella multocida, and is considered to be endemic in many states of India with more than 25,000 outbreaks in the past three decades. Currently, there is no national policy for control of HS in India. In this study, we analysed thirty year (1987–2016) monthly data on HS outbreaks using different statistical and mathematical methods to identify spatial variability and temporal patterns (seasonality, periodicity). There was zonal variation in the trend and seasonality of HS outbreaks. Overall, South zone reported maximum proportion of the outbreaks (70.2%), followed by East zone (7.2%), Central zone (6.4%), North zone (5.6%), West zone (5.5%) and North-East zone (4.9%). Annual state level analysis indicated that the reporting of HS outbreaks started at different years independently and there was no apparent transmission between the states. The results of the current study are useful for the policy makers to design national control programme on HS in India and implement state specific strategies. Further, our study and strategies could aid in implementation of similar approaches in HS endemic tropical countries around the world

Development of recombinant sialidase (NanH) protein-based Indirect-ELISA for epidemiological survey of anti-Pasteurella multocida antibodies in bovines

697-704Haemorrhagic septicaemia (HS) is a highly contagious and fatal disease of cattle and buffaloes and causes major economic losses to farmers. Though indirect hemagglutination (IHA) test has been used to detect a specific antibody against P. multocida, it has low specificity for sero-diagnosis of HS. Therefore, development of a rapid, highly sensitive and specific serological test is a prerequisite for detection of antibodies against HS. In this context, we explored an in-house ELISA method using recombinant antigens for detection of antibodies against P. multocida in bovines. nanH gene from P. multocida B:2 strain P52 was cloned and the recombinant mature protein with a C- and N-terminal truncation was produced as a fusion protein (∼63 kDa) in Escherichia coli. The immunogenic potential of purified rNanH-Tr was assessed by the Western blot method using specific anti-rNanH-Tr antibody responses in sera collected from immunized rabbits. An indirect-ELISA based on rNanH-Tr was developed and optimized. Furthermore, the rNanH-Tr ELISA was applied to screen bovine serum samples (n=250). The receiver operating characteristic curve analysis for the detection of anti P. multocida specific antibodies indicated a diagnostic sensitivity of 86.2 (CI 73.26-96.80%) and specificity of 80.0 (63.06- 91.56%). No cross reactivity was noted with antibodies against other bovine diseases (e.g., foot-and-mouth disease and brucellosis). Screening of random bovine serum samples showed a 22% sero-positivity for anti P. multocida specific antibodies

Quantifying the influence of climate, host and change in land-use patterns on occurrence of Crimean Congo Hemorrhagic Fever (CCHF) and development of spatial risk map for India

Crimean Congo Hemorrhagic Fever (CCHF), is an emerging zoonosis globally and in India. The present study focused on identifying the risk factors for occurrence of CCHF in the Indian state of Gujarat and development of risk map for India. The past CCHF outbreaks in India were collated for the analyses. Influence of land use change and climatic factors in determining the occurrence of CCHF in Gujarat was assessed using Bayesian spatial models. Change in maximum temperature in affected districts was analysed to identify the significant change points over 110 years. Risk map was developed for Gujarat using Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART) model with remotely sensed environmental variables and host (livestock and human) factors. We found the change in land use patterns and maximum temperature in affected districts to be contributing to the occurrence of CCHF in Gujarat. Spatial risk map developed using CCHF occurrence data for Gujarat identified density of buffalo, minimum land surface temperature and elevation as risk determinants. Further, spatial risk map for the occurrence of CCHF in India was developed using selected variables. Overall, we found that combination of factors such as change in land-use patterns, maximum temperature, buffalo density, day time minimum land surface temperature and elevation led to the emergence and further spread of the disease in India. Mitigation measures for CCHF in India could be designed considering disease epidemiology and initiation of surveillance strategies based on the risk map developed in this study