Investors Facing Risk: Loss Aversion and Wealth Allocation Between Risky and Risk-Free Assets

This paper studies the impact of loss aversion on decisions regarding the allocation of wealth between risky and risk-free assets. We use a Value-at-Risk portfolio model with endogenous desired risk levels that are individually determined in an extended prospect theory framework. This framework allows for the distinction between gains and losses with respect to a subjective reference point as in the original prospect theory, but also for the influence of past performance on the current perception of the risky portfolio value. We show how the portfolio evaluation frequency impacts investor decisions and attitudes when facing financial losses and analyze the role of past gains and losses in the current wealth allocation. The perceived portfolio value exhibits distinct evolutions in two frequency segments delimitated by what we consider to be the optimal evaluation horizon of one year. Our empirical results suggest that previous research relying on VaR underestimates the aversion of real individual investors to financial losses.prospect theory, loss aversion, capital allocation, Value-at-Risk, portfolio evaluation

Investors Facing Risk II: Loss Aversion and Wealth Allocation When Utility Is Derived From Consumption and Narrowly Framed Financial Investments

This paper studies the attitude of non-professional investors towards financial losses and their decisions concerning wealth allocation among consumption, risky, and risk-free financial assets. We employ a two-dimensional utility setting in which both consumption and financial wealth fluctuations generate utility. The perception of financial wealth is modelled in an extended prospect-theory framework that accounts for both the distinction between gains and losses with respect to a subjective reference point and the impact of past performance on the current perception of the risky portfolio value. The decision problem is addressed in two distinct equilibrium settings in the aggregate market with a representative investor, namely with expected and non-expected utility. Empirical estimations performed on the basis of real market data and for various parameter configurations show that both settings similarly describe the attitude towards financial losses. Yet, the recommendations regarding wealth allocation are different. Maximizing expected utility results on average in low total-wealth percentages dedicated to consumption, but supports myopic loss aversion. Non-expected utility yields more reasonable assignments to consumption but also a high preference for risky assets. In this latter setting, myopic loss aversion holds solely when financial wealth fluctuations are viewed as the main utility source and in very soft form.prospect theory, Value-at-Risk, loss aversion, expected utility, non-expected utility

Relative power and efficiency as a main determinant of banks? profitability in Latin America

Despite the financial sector liberalization and openness that started in the earlier 90's and significant macroeconomic development as well as increasing inflow of capital toward the region, there is not any evidence of the reduction of interest rates as well as banks' profits in Latin America. In this paper we develop a model to estimate the determinants of Latin American banks' profitability and, try to understand the reasons why banks are reluctant to decrease their interest rate spreads even when change in competitiveness in the financial system is improving. By using Data Envelopment Analysis to better exploit the information of several variables at the same time and, by employing a sample of 200 Banks located in Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Costa Rica, Ecuador, El Salvador, Mexico, Nicaragua, Paraguay, Peru, Uruguay and Venezuela; we find that banks' profits grew consistently above the normal levels of profits adjusted by risk. Our results show that banks in Latin America have been profiting from their oligopolistic position in detriment of their clients in particular and of their whole economy in general

Investors Facing Risk: Loss Aversion and Wealth Allocation Between Risky and Risk-Free Assets

This paper studies the impact of loss aversion on decisions regarding the allocation of wealth between risky and risk-free assets. We use a Value-at-Risk portfolio model with endogenous desired risk levels that are individually determined in an extended prospect theory framework. This framework allows for the distinction between gains and losses with respect to a subjective reference point as in the original prospect theory, but also for the influence of past performance on the current perception of the risky portfolio value. We show how the portfolio evaluation frequency impacts investor decisions and attitudes when facing financial losses and analyze the role of past gains and losses in the current wealth allocation. The perceived portfolio value exhibits distinct evolutions in two frequency segments delimitated by what we consider to be the optimal evaluation horizon of one year. Our empirical results suggest that previous research relying on VaR underestimates the aversion of real individual investors to financial losses

Investors Facing Risk II: Loss Aversion and Wealth Allocation When Utility Is Derived From Consumption and Narrowly Framed Financial Investments

This paper studies the attitude of non-professional investors towards financial losses and their decisions concerning wealth allocation among consumption, risky, and risk-free financial assets. We employ a two-dimensional utility setting in which both consumption and financial wealth fluctuations generate utility. The perception of financial wealth is modelled in an extended prospect-theory framework that accounts for both the distinction between gains and losses with respect to a subjective reference point and the impact of past performance on the current perception of the risky portfolio value. The decision problem is addressed in two distinct equilibrium settings in the aggregate market with a representative investor, namely with expected and non-expected utility. Empirical estimations performed on the basis of real market data and for various parameter configurations show that both settings similarly describe the attitude towards financial losses. Yet, the recommendations regarding wealth allocation are different. Maximizing expected utility results on average in low total-wealth percentages dedicated to consumption, but supports myopic loss aversion. Non-expected utility yields more reasonable assignments to consumption but also a high preference for risky assets. In this latter setting, myopic loss aversion holds solely when financial wealth fluctuations are viewed as the main utility source and in very soft form

Investors Facing Risk II: Loss Aversion and Wealth Allocation When Utility Is Derived From Consumption and Narrowly Framed Financial Investments

This paper studies the attitude of non-professional investors towards financial losses and their decisions concerning wealth allocation among consumption, risky, and risk-free financial assets. We employ a two-dimensional utility setting in which both consumption and financial wealth fluctuations generate utility. The perception of financial wealth is modelled in an extended prospect-theory framework that accounts for both the distinction between gains and losses with respect to a subjective reference point and the impact of past performance on the current perception of the risky portfolio value. The decision problem is addressed in two distinct equilibrium settings in the aggregate market with a representative investor, namely with expected and non-expected utility. Empirical estimations performed on the basis of real market data and for various parameter configurations show that both settings similarly describe the attitude towards financial losses. Yet, the recommendations regarding wealth allocation are different. Maximizing expected utility results on average in low total-wealth percentages dedicated to consumption, but supports myopic loss aversion. Non-expected utility yields more reasonable assignments to consumption but also a high preference for risky assets. In this latter setting, myopic loss aversion holds solely when financial wealth fluctuations are viewed as the main utility source and in very soft form

Investors Facing Risk: Loss Aversion and Wealth Allocation Between Risky and Risk-Free Assets

This paper studies the impact of loss aversion on decisions regarding the allocation of wealth between risky and risk-free assets. We use a Value-at-Risk portfolio model with endogenous desired risk levels that are individually determined in an extended prospect theory framework. This framework allows for the distinction between gains and losses with respect to a subjective reference point as in the original prospect theory, but also for the influence of past performance on the current perception of the risky portfolio value. We show how the portfolio evaluation frequency impacts investor decisions and attitudes when facing financial losses and analyze the role of past gains and losses in the current wealth allocation. The perceived portfolio value exhibits distinct evolutions in two frequency segments delimitated by what we consider to be the optimal evaluation horizon of one year. Our empirical results suggest that previous research relying on VaR underestimates the aversion of real individual investors to financial losses

Improved Baseline Sales

This paper develops a more accurate and robust baseline sales (sales in the absence of price promotion) using Dynamic Linear Models and a Multiple Structural Change Model (DLM/MSCM). We first discuss the value of utilizing aggregated (chain-level) vs. disaggregated (store-level) point-of-sale (POS) data to estimate baseline sales and measure promotional effectiveness. We then discuss the practical advantage of the DLM/MSCM modeling approach using aggregated data, and we propose two tests to determine the superiority of a particular baseline estimate: the minimization of weekly sales volatility and the existence of no correlation with promotional activities in these estimates. Finally, we test this baseline against the industry standard ones on the two measures of performance. Our tests find the DLM/MSCM baseline sales to be superior to the existing log-linear models by reducing the weekly baseline sales volatility by over 80% and by being uncorrelated to promotional activities.Dynamic linear Models, Multiple Structural Change Model, Consumer Packaged Goods, Marketing, Sales, Promotions. Baseline Sales.

Relative power and efficiency as a main determinant of banks' profitability in Latin America

Despite the financial sector liberalization and openness that started in the earlier 90's and significant macroeconomic development as well as increasing inflow of capital toward the region, there is not any evidence of the reduction of interest rates as well as banks' profits in Latin America. In this paper we develop a model to estimate the determinants of Latin American banks' profitability and, try to understand the reasons why banks are reluctant to decrease their interest rate spreads even when change in competitiveness in the financial system is improving. By using Data Envelopment Analysis to better exploit the information of several variables at the same time and, by employing a sample of 200 Banks located in Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Costa Rica, Ecuador, El Salvador, Mexico, Nicaragua, Paraguay, Peru, Uruguay and Venezuela; we find that banks' profits grew consistently above the normal levels of profits adjusted by risk. Our results show that banks in Latin America have been profiting from their oligopolistic position in detriment of their clients in particular and of their whole economy in general