CONVERGENCE, HARMONIZATION, AND COMPATIBILITY UNDER NAFTA: A 2003 STATUS REPORT

In the 2001 Workshop the authors developed and applied a taxonomy and framework for assessing the status of agricultural and food policies in each of the NAFTA countries (Knutson, Loyns and Ochoa, 2002). It divided the policies into the following areas: -Facilitate growth and progress. Regulation. Market intervention. For each area the paper identified the major points of conflict that existed in 2001 at the time the paper was written and the requirements for harmonization. The major areas of conflict included; -Facilitate growth and progress: particularly grades and standards in grains (US-CA) and beef (US-CA); trade policy in dairy (US-CA), sugar (US-MX), poultry (US-MX), and wheat (US-CA); infrastructure policies (border conflicts US-MX). Regulation: particularly plant and animal protection (US-MX), food safety (US-MX), pesticides (US-CA-MX). Market interventions: particularly disaster assistance (US-CA-MX), price supports and safety nets (US-CA-MX), and supply management and state trading. The purpose of this paper is to update that paper and to draw conclusions as to whether progress has been made since 2001 has been positive, negative, or neutral in each of these areas of conflict for policy/program convergence, harmonization, and compatibility. The 2001 policies, therefore, can be looked upon as a policy baseline point of reference for comparison in 2003. Many of the policy changes were embodied in the precipitated by the US 2002 farm bill. However, care was taken to review each of the policy/program areas covered in the 2001 taxonomy to identify changes in the level of conflict.International Relations/Trade,

Analysis of the Bayesian Cramer-Rao lower bound in astrometry: Studying the impact of prior information in the location of an object

Context. The best precision that can be achieved to estimate the location of a stellar-like object is a topic of permanent interest in the astrometric community. Aims. We analyse bounds for the best position estimation of a stellar-like object on a CCD detector array in a Bayesian setting where the position is unknown, but where we have access to a prior distribution. In contrast to a parametric setting where we estimate a parameter from observations, the Bayesian approach estimates a random object (i.e., the position is a random variable) from observations that are statistically dependent on the position. Methods. We characterize the Bayesian Cramer-Rao (CR) that bounds the minimum mean square error (MMSE) of the best estimator of the position of a point source on a linear CCD-like detector, as a function of the properties of detector, the source, and the background. Results. We quantify and analyse the increase in astrometric performance from the use of a prior distribution of the object position, which is not available in the classical parametric setting. This gain is shown to be significant for various observational regimes, in particular in the case of faint objects or when the observations are taken under poor conditions. Furthermore, we present numerical evidence that the MMSE estimator of this problem tightly achieves the Bayesian CR bound. This is a remarkable result, demonstrating that all the performance gains presented in our analysis can be achieved with the MMSE estimator. Conclusions The Bayesian CR bound can be used as a benchmark indicator of the expected maximum positional precision of a set of astrometric measurements in which prior information can be incorporated. This bound can be achieved through the conditional mean estimator, in contrast to the parametric case where no unbiased estimator precisely reaches the CR bound.Comment: 17 pages, 12 figures. Accepted for publication on Astronomy & Astrophysic

Performance analysis of the Least-Squares estimator in Astrometry

We characterize the performance of the widely-used least-squares estimator in astrometry in terms of a comparison with the Cramer-Rao lower variance bound. In this inference context the performance of the least-squares estimator does not offer a closed-form expression, but a new result is presented (Theorem 1) where both the bias and the mean-square-error of the least-squares estimator are bounded and approximated analytically, in the latter case in terms of a nominal value and an interval around it. From the predicted nominal value we analyze how efficient is the least-squares estimator in comparison with the minimum variance Cramer-Rao bound. Based on our results, we show that, for the high signal-to-noise ratio regime, the performance of the least-squares estimator is significantly poorer than the Cramer-Rao bound, and we characterize this gap analytically. On the positive side, we show that for the challenging low signal-to-noise regime (attributed to either a weak astronomical signal or a noise-dominated condition) the least-squares estimator is near optimal, as its performance asymptotically approaches the Cramer-Rao bound. However, we also demonstrate that, in general, there is no unbiased estimator for the astrometric position that can precisely reach the Cramer-Rao bound. We validate our theoretical analysis through simulated digital-detector observations under typical observing conditions. We show that the nominal value for the mean-square-error of the least-squares estimator (obtained from our theorem) can be used as a benchmark indicator of the expected statistical performance of the least-squares method under a wide range of conditions. Our results are valid for an idealized linear (one-dimensional) array detector where intra-pixel response changes are neglected, and where flat-fielding is achieved with very high accuracy.Comment: 35 pages, 8 figures. Accepted for publication by PAS

Are there hadronic bound states above the QCD transition temperature?

Recent lattice QCD calculations, at physical pion masses and small lattice spacings that approach the continuum limit, have revealed that non-diagonal quark correlators above the critical temperature are finite up to about 2 $T_c$. Since the transition from hadronic to free partonic degrees of freedom is merely an analytic cross-over, it is likely that, in the temperature regime between 1-2 $T_c$, quark and gluon quasiparticles and pre-hadronic bound states can coexist. The correlator values, in comparison to PNJL model calculations beyond mean-field, indicate that at least part of the mixed phase resides in color-neutral bound states. A similar effect was postulated for the in-medium fragmentation process, i.e. for partons which do not thermalize with the system and thus constitute the non-equilibrium component of the particle emission spectrum from a deconfined plasma phase. Here, for the first time we investigate the likelihood of forming bound states also in the equilibrated, parton dominated phase above $T_c$ which is described by lattice QCD.Comment: 15 pages, 4 Figure

Orbits for eighteen visual binaries and two double-line spectroscopic binaries observed with HRCAM on the CTIO SOAR 4m telescope, using a new Bayesian orbit code based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo

We present orbital elements and mass sums for eighteen visual binary stars of spectral types B to K (five of which are new orbits) with periods ranging from 20 to more than 500 yr. For two double-line spectroscopic binaries with no previous orbits, the individual component masses, using combined astrometric and radial velocity data, have a formal uncertainty of ~0.1 MSun. Adopting published photometry, and trigonometric parallaxes, plus our own measurements, we place these objects on an H-R diagram, and discuss their evolutionary status. These objects are part of a survey to characterize the binary population of stars in the Southern Hemisphere, using the SOAR 4m telescope+HRCAM at CTIO. Orbital elements are computed using a newly developed Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm that delivers maximum likelihood estimates of the parameters, as well as posterior probability density functions that allow us to evaluate the uncertainty of our derived parameters in a robust way. For spectroscopic binaries, using our approach, it is possible to derive a self-consistent parallax for the system from the combined astrometric plus radial velocity data ("orbital parallax"), which compares well with the trigonometric parallaxes. We also present a mathematical formalism that allows a dimensionality reduction of the feature space from seven to three search parameters (or from ten to seven dimensions - including parallax - in the case of spectroscopic binaries with astrometric data), which makes it possible to explore a smaller number of parameters in each case, improving the computational efficiency of our Markov Chain Monte Carlo code.Comment: 32 pages, 9 figures, 6 tables. Detailed Appendix with methodology. Accepted by The Astronomical Journa

Optimality of the Maximum Likelihood estimator in Astrometry

The problem of astrometry is revisited from the perspective of analyzing the attainability of well-known performance limits (the Cramer-Rao bound) for the estimation of the relative position of light-emitting (usually point-like) sources on a CCD-like detector using commonly adopted estimators such as the weighted least squares and the maximum likelihood. Novel technical results are presented to determine the performance of an estimator that corresponds to the solution of an optimization problem in the context of astrometry. Using these results we are able to place stringent bounds on the bias and the variance of the estimators in close form as a function of the data. We confirm these results through comparisons to numerical simulations under a broad range of realistic observing conditions. The maximum likelihood and the weighted least square estimators are analyzed. We confirm the sub-optimality of the weighted least squares scheme from medium to high signal-to-noise found in an earlier study for the (unweighted) least squares method. We find that the maximum likelihood estimator achieves optimal performance limits across a wide range of relevant observational conditions. Furthermore, from our results, we provide concrete insights for adopting an adaptive weighted least square estimator that can be regarded as a computationally efficient alternative to the optimal maximum likelihood solution. We provide, for the first time, close-form analytical expressions that bound the bias and the variance of the weighted least square and maximum likelihood implicit estimators for astrometry using a Poisson-driven detector. These expressions can be used to formally assess the precision attainable by these estimators in comparison with the minimum variance bound.Comment: 24 pages, 7 figures, 2 tables, 3 appendices. Accepted by Astronomy & Astrophysic

Herzberg Circuit and Berry's Phase in Chirality-based Coded Qubit in a Triangular Triple Quantum Dot

We present a theoretical proposal for the Herzberg circuit and controlled accumulation of Berry's phase in a chirality-based coded qubit in a triangular triple quantum dot molecule with one electron spin each. The qubit is encoded in the two degenerate states of a three spin complex with total spin $S=1/2$. Using a Hubbard and Heisenberg model the Herzberg circuit encircling the degeneracy point is realized by adiabatically tuning the successive on-site energies of quantum dots and tunnel couplings across a pair of neighbouring dots. It is explicitly shown that encircling the degeneracy point leads to the accumulation of the geometrical Berrys phase. We show that only triangular but not linear quantum dot molecule allows for the generation of Berry's phase and we discuss a protocol to detect this geometrical phase