Assessing old-age long-term care using the concepts of healthy life expectancy and care duration: the new parameter "Long-Term Care-Free Life-Expectancy (LTCF)"

Achieving old ages is also connected with prevalence of illness and long-term care. With the introduction of the statutory long-term care insurance in 1996 and the long-term care statistics in 1999 research data of about 2.3 million people receiving long-term care benefits is available. Average life expectancy can be qualitatively divided into lifetime spent in good health and lifetime spent in long-term care dependence (average care duration). In Germany women’s and men’s average care duration amount 3.6 years respectively 2.1 years.Germany, ageing, laboratories, life expectancy

Month of birth influences survival up to age 105+: first results from the age validation study of German semi-supercentenarians

Using data from Germany, we examine if month of birth influences survival up to age 105. Since age reporting at the highest ages is notoriously unreliable we draw on age-validated information from a huge age validation project of 1487 alleged German semi-supercentenarians aged 105+. We use month of birth as an exogenous indicator for seasonal changes in the environment around the time of birth. We find that the seasonal distribution of birth dates changes with age. For 925 age-validated semi-supercentenarians the seasonality is more pronounced than at the time of their births (1880-1900). Among the December-born the relative risk of survival from birth to age 105+ is 16 per cent higher than the average, among the June-born, 23 per cent lower. The month-of-birth pattern in the survival risks of the German semi-supercentenarians resembles closely the month-of-birth pattern in remaining life expectancy at age 50 in Denmark.

Lifetime earnings and life expectancy

We estimate remaining life expectancy at age 65 using a very large sample of male German pensioners. Our analysis is entirely nonparametric. Furthermore, the data enable us to compare life expectancy in eastern and western Germany conditional on a measure of socio-economic status. Our findings show a lower bound of almost fifty percent (six years) on the difference in remaining life expectancy between the lowest and the highest socio-economic group considered. Within groups, we find similar values for East and West. Our analysis contributes to the literature in several aspects. First, Germany is clearly underrepresented in differential mortality studies. Second, we are able to use a novel measure of lifetime earnings as a proxy for socio-economic status that remains valid for retired people. Third, the comparison of eastern and western Germany may provide some interesting insights for transformation countries.Germany, life expectancy, pensioners, socio-economic differentials

Fertility and mortality data for Germany: recent progress and future challenges

"In recent years, considerable progress has been made in improving the data infrastructure for fertility and morality researchers in Germany. Several large scale data sets have been made available through the research data centers: the microcensuses of the 1970s and 1980s, the censuses of the GDR and FRG, the microcensus panel, data from the pension registers, individual level data from the vital statistics, and the central foreigner registers have become available for scientific usage. Vital statistics have been reformed, and the micro-census now includes information on number of children ever born. Despite these improvements, there are still some “weak spots” in Germany’s data infrastructure. Germany is lacking official counts of reconstituted families. We know little about the mortality risks of immigrants. In addition, the data infrastructure for studying the socio-economic differences in mortality risks could be improved, thus enabling Germany to catch up with international developments in this area. This paper concludes by making some suggestions for improving the data available." [author's abstract

Official population statistics and the Human Mortality Database estimates of populations aged 80+ in Germany and nine other European countries

A systematic comparison of the Human Mortality Database and official estimates of populations aged 80+ is presented. We consider statistical series for East and West Germany and also for Denmark, England and Wales, France, Finland, Hungary, the Netherlands, Russia, Sweden, and Switzerland. The Human Mortality Database (HMD, www.mortality.org) methodology relies on the methods of extinct and almost extinct generations. HMD estimates are precise if the quality of death data is high and the migration among the elderly is negligible. The comparisons between the HMD and the official populations are not fully appropriate for the 1990s since the HMD calculations are related to official population estimates. A significant overestimation of the male population aged 80+ and especially 90+ between the censuses of 1970 and 1987 was found in West Germany. The relative surplus of men aged 90+ increased from 5 to 20 percent, which expressed in absolute numbers indicates an increase from 2 to 10 thousand. In 1971-1987 the official death rates have fallen dramatically to implausibly low values. In 1987-88 death rates based on the official populations suddenly jumped to the HMD death rates due to the census re-estimation. In the 1990s an accelerated decrease in male death rates has resumed. Among other countries, the relative and absolute deviations from the HMD estimates were especially high in Russia, Hungary, and England and Wales. Regression analysis reveals common factors of the relative deviation from the HMD populations. The deviation tends to decrease with time, increase with age, be higher during inter-census periods than in census years, and to decrease after the introduction of population registers.age/aging, elderly, population estimates, quality of statistics, statistics

The register-based census in Germany: historical context and relevance for population research

"In 2011, Germany carried out its first census after a 20-year break. In light of the United Nations' recommendations that countries initiate a population census at least every 10 years, the census was long overdue. Moreover, demographers had for some time been demanding a new enumeration that would enable them to place the calculation of demographic indicators on a reliable basis. With the 2011 census, Germany not only met the demand for a current population census, but also broke new ground by using a register-based approach. Unlike the Scandinavian countries, which have a long tradition of performing register-based data analyses, the linking of administrative data in Germany is restricted by the country’s legal framework. Thus, the 2011 census was an ambitious project. After contextualising the 2011 census historically, we discuss in this contribution the census’ relevance for generating central demographic data. Specifically, we compare the updated population estimates of the 1987 census to the results of the 2011 census in order to identify possible systematic sources of error that distort demographic indicators and analyses." (author's abstract). Documentation: s. http://dx.doi.org/10.12765/CPoS-2016-07e

Lifetime earnings and life expectancy

We estimate remaining life expectancy at age 65 using a very large sample of male German pensioners. Our analysis is entirely nonparametric. Furthermore, the data enable us to compare life expectancy in eastern and western Germany conditional on a measure of socio-economic status. Our findings show a lower bound of almost fifty percent (six years) on the difference in remaining life expectancy between the lowest and the highest socio-economic group considered. Within groups, we find similar values for East and West. Our analysis contributes to the literature in several aspects. First, Germany is clearly underrepresented in differential mortality studies. Second, we are able to use a novel measure of lifetime earnings as a proxy for socio-economic status that remains valid for retired people. Third, the comparison of eastern and western Germany may provide some interesting insights for transformation countries

Social Differences in Infant Mortality in 19th Century Rostock. A Demographic Analysis Based on Church Records

Der Originalbeitrag in deutscher Sprache ist verfügbar unter: Bd. 40 (2015): Ausgewählte deutsche Beiträge.  The article examines the historical development of infant mortality in the Hanseatic city of Rostock, with a special focus on the question of how socio-economic factors influenced infant mortality in the early 19th century. Compared with the rest of Germany, the city exhibited an exceedingly low infant mortality level, in particular in the first third of the century. Our analyses show that the occupation of the father had a significant influence on the survival probability of a child in the first year of life in the early 19th century. Newborn children of fathers in lower ranked occupations exhibited a greater mortality risk in the first year of life than the offspring of fathers with occupations of higher status. The analyses are based on the registries of burials and baptisms of St. James’s Church (Jakobikirche) in Rostock, which are largely preserved and much of which has been digitalised. Based on these individual data, this is the first event history analysis model conducted in the context of infant mortality in a German city in the 19th century. This article is also the first to reveal Rostock infant mortality rates for the entire 19th century according to sex, thus closing two research gaps.The article examines the historical development of infant mortality in the Hanseatic city of Rostock, with a special focus on the question of how socio-economic factors influenced infant mortality in the early 19th century. Compared with the rest of Germany, the city exhibited an exceedingly low infant mortality level, in particular in the first third of the century. Our analyses show that the occupation of the father had a significant influence on the survival probability of a child in the first year of life in the early 19th century. Newborn children of fathers in lower ranked occupations exhibited a greater mortality risk in the first year of life than the offspring of fathers with occupations of higher status. The analyses are based on the registries of burials and baptisms of St. James’s Church (Jakobikirche) in Rostock, which are largely preserved and much of which has been digitalised. Based on these individual data, this is the first event history analysis model conducted in the context of infant mortality in a German city in the 19th century. This article is also the first to reveal Rostock infant mortality rates for the entire 19th century according to sex, thus closing two research gaps