On the Role of Sectoral and National Components in the Wage Bargaining Process

This paper provides an empirical analysis on the determination of wages at the sectoral level in main industrial economies. Nominal wages are bargained between labour unions and employers in imperfect competitive markets, where spillovers across sectors might occur. Using a principal component approach, sectoral wage growth rates are separated into common and idiosyncratic components. This defines the relative role of national and sector specific conditions in the wage determination process. The common component is highly relevant especially in continental Europe, and is more visible for manufacturing than for services sectors. It reflects national inflation and productivity growth, while labour market tightness is negligible. The weight of the macroeconomic environment has declined in recent years. Wage growth tends to be more in line with idiosyncratic conditions like sectoral productivity and prices, probably due to the ongoing globalization of markets.sectoral wages, wage spillovers, common factors

Panel Seasonal Unit Root Test With An Application for Unemployment Data

In this paper the seasonal unit root test of Hylleberg et al. (1990) is generalized to cover a heterogenous panel. The procedure follows the work of Im, Pesaran and Shin (2002). Test statistics are proposed and critical values are obtained by simulations. Moreover, the properties of the tests are analyzed for di®erent deterministic and dynamic specications. Evidence is presented that for a small time dimension the power is slow even for increasing cross section dimension. Therefore, it seems necessary to have a higher time dimension than cross section dimension. The new test is applied for unemployment behaviour in industrialized countries. In some cases seasonal unit roots are detected. However, the null hypotheses of panel seasonal unit roots are rejected. The null hypothesis of a unit root at the zero frequency is not rejected, thereby supporting the presence of hysteresis effects.panel seasonal unit root test, IPS-approach, unemployment data

Long-Run Links Among Money, Prices, and Output: World-Wide Evidence

Regarding inflation as being a monetary phenomenon in the long-run is a widely-held view in modern macro economics. We analyse this topic by means of a P-star model. Based on the quantity theory of money, this approach explains inflation via a supposed equilibrium price level (P-star), which itself depends on potential output and money. We investigate country-specific models for 110 economies, and also a pooled system thereof. We test for cointegration among money, prices, and real output. Moreover, parameter restrictions for the long-run relationships implied by the monetary theory are tested. Country specific P-star variables are constructed and the cointegration property between prices and the P-star variable is analysed. Along these lines, we find that actual prices and their P-star counterparts are cointegrated at the pooled level and thus demonstrate the importance of money for the development of prices. -- Die Aussage, dass Inflation langfristig ein monetäres Phänomen ist, ist eine grundlegende Erkenntnis der Makroökonomie. Dieser Sachverhalt wird in dieser Arbeit im Rahmen eines P-Stern-Modells analysiert. Ausgehend von der Quantitätstheorie des Geldes erklärt der P-Stern-Ansatz die Inflationsrate mit Hilfe eines berechneten Gleichgewichtspreisniveaus (P-Stern), das vom Produktionspotential und von einer Geldmenge abhängt. Wir untersuchen länderspezifische Modelle für 110 Volkswirtschaften und ein aus den Gleichungen bestehendes gepooltes System. Es wird auf Kointegration zwischen einer Geldmenge, einem Preisniveau und dem realen Output testet. Weiterhin werden die Parameterrestriktionen, die sich durch die monet¨are Theorie ergeben, für die langfristige Beziehung überprüft. Zusätzlich werden nationale P-Stern- Variablen konstruiert und es wird auf Kointegration zwischen diesen und den Preisen getestet. Im empirischen Teil finden wir, wenn die Variablen gepoolt werden, dass die aktuellen Preisniveaus mit den dazugehörenden P-Stern-Variablen kointegriert sind. Dies verdeutlicht die Wichtigkeit des Geldes für die Entwicklung der Preise.Quantity theory of money,Panel cointegration analysis,Wild bootstrap inference

Hysteresis and Persistence in the Course of Unemployment: The EU and US Experience

We investigate hysteresis and persistence behaviour in the course of unemployment in EU countries and US states by means of first and second generation panel unit root tests. While the former tests assume independent cross sections, the latter control for dependencies. The first generation tests indicate, that unemployment is persistent, but nevertheless stationary. Second generation tests reveal mixed results, but the evidence for stationarity is much stronger for the US. Hysteresis in EU unemployment is attributed to the idiosyncratic, but not to the common component. In contrast, idiosyncratic components are stationary in the US. If hysteresis behaviour is also relevant here, it is more likely to arise in the common component. These findings might reflect a lower degree of migration of the unemployed in the EU from starving into prosperous regions, possibly because of language barriers or national labour market regulationsUnemployment persistence, hysteresis, panel unit roots

Modelling the Fisher hypothesis: World wide evidence

In this paper we follow an empirical approach to examine the implications of the Fisher hypothesis, namely cointegration linking interest rates and inflation, and stationarity of the real interest rate implying in turn homogeneity of the potential equilibrium relation. The considered sample is an unbalanced panel and comprises monthly time series data from more than 100 economies covering at most a period of about 45 years. In total more than 31000 observations enter our empirical analysis. From cross sectional error correction and dynamic OLS regressions we find that the presumed dynamic relation is hardly homogeneous over the cross section. Therefore, building on cross sectional parameter homogeneity nonstationary panel data models are provided merely as a complement to cross section specific analyses. Apart from standard between regressions we exploit the cross section dimension to infer on parameter homogeneity over particular economic states. For this purpose we rely on semiparametric implementations of so-called functional coefficient models. The latter are suitable to relate key model parameters on economic states, as e.g. periods of higher vs. lower inflation or inflation risk. From the latter approach we find that time or state invariance of key model parameters is not supported empirically. Moreover the evidence in favor of cointegration is weak over periods of high inflation. The Fisher coefficient turns out to be remarkably stable and is, over most considered states, significantly less than unity. --Fisher hypothesis,Panel cointegration analysis,Functional coefficient models

How to treat benchmark revisions? The case of German production and orders statistics

Elements of an econometric examination of benchmark revisions in real-time data are suggested. Structural break tests may be applied to detect heterogeneities within vintages. Systems cointegration tests are helpful to reveal inconsistencies across vintages. Differencing and rebasing, often used to adjust for benchmark revisions, are generally not sufficient to ensure consistent real-time macroeconomic data. Vintage transformation functions estimated by cointegrating regressions are more flexible. Inappropriate conversion may cause observed revision statistics to be affected by nuisance parameters. In German industrial production and orders statistics, remaining revisions are generally biased and serially correlated. --real-time data,benchmark revisions,industrial production,orders

Analysing Divisia Aggregates for the Euro Area

In this paper, different Divisia monetary aggregates for the euro area are constructed over the period from 1980 to 2000. Theoretically, one main difference of these aggregates is their reaction to exchange-rate variations. Empirically, the aggregates are compared with respect to three issues. First, the demand for the Divisia aggregates is evaluated using the cointegrated VEC model and single-equation techniques, where stable demand functions are estimated. Second, the information content of these aggregates as regards future output is investigated. Evidence is presented that one of the Divisia aggregates has most information content from a forward-looking perspective. Third, using the P-star framework, the importance of money for future price movements is examined. Adapting an in-sample analysis, Divisia aggregates are important for HICP development and to some extent for GDP deflator movement. The out-ofsample forecasting exercise presents, on the one hand, evidence that simple-sum M3 includes more information for the HICP, whereas one of the Divisia aggregates helps to predict the future GDP deflator. On the other hand conspicuous control errors exist. In sum, the paper supports the view that money should have an important role in the conduct of monetary policy in the euro area. -- In dieser Studie werden verschiedene Divisia-Aggregate für das Eurowährungsgebiet für den Zeitraum von 1980 bis 2000 berechnet. Ein wichtiger theoretischer Unterschied dieser Aggregate ist ihre Reaktion auf Wechselkursänderungen. Empirisch werden die Aggregate mit dem Summenaggregat M3 in Bezug auf drei Fragestellungen verglichen. Erstens werden Geldnachfragefunktionen von Divisia-Aggregaten mit Hilfe von kointegrierten VEC-Modellen und von Einzelgleichungsansätzen geschätzt. Es zeigt sich, dass stabile Gleichungen bestimmt werden. Zweitens wird der Informationsgehalt der Aggregate bez¨uglich der zukünftigen Outputentwicklung untersucht. Hierbei stellt sich heraus, dass eines der Divisia-Aggregate mehr Informationsgehalt als die anderen Aggregate besitzt. Drittens wird die Bedeutung des Geldes für die zukünftige Preisentwicklung analysiert. Bei der ex post-Analyse wird deutlich, dass Divisia-Aggregate die Entwicklung des Harmonisierten-Verbraucher-Preisindexes (HICP) und in geringerem Umfang die Entwicklung des BIP-Deflators beeinflussen. Die ex ante-Analyse verdeutlicht einerseits, dass das einfache Summenaggregate M3 mehr Informationsgehalt für die Entwicklung des HICP als die anderen Aggregate enthält, während eines der Divisia- Aggregate hilft die Vorausschätzung des zukünftigen DIP-Deflators zu verbessern. Andererseits gibt es erhebliche Kontrollfehler. Zusammenfassend unterstützt die Studie die Auffassung, dass die Geldmenge eine wichtige Rolle bei der Durchführung der Geldpolitik im Eurowährungsraum haben sollte.Divisia monetary aggregate,Money demand,Controllability,IS-curves,P-Star

Forecasting real GDP: what role for narrow money?

JEL Classification: E41, E52, E58business cycle, forecast comparison, Money, VAR models

Asset price misalignments and the role of money and credit

This paper contributes to the literature on the properties of money and credit indicators for detecting asset price misalignments. After a review of the evidence in the literature on this issue, the paper discusses the approaches that can be considered to detect asset price busts. Considering a sample of 17 OECD industrialised countries and the euro area over the period 1969 Q1 – 2008 Q3, we construct an asset price composite indicator which incorporates developments in both the stock price and house price markets and propose a criterion to identify the periods characterised by asset price busts, which has been applied in the currency crisis literature. The empirical analysis is based on a pooled probit-type approach with several macroeconomic monetary, financial and real variables. According to statistical tests, credit aggregates (either in terms of annual changes or growth gap), changes in nominal long-term interest rates and investment-to-GDP ratio combined with either house prices or stock prices dynamics turn out to be the best indicators which help to forecast asset price busts up to 8 quarters ahead. JEL Classification: E37, E44, E51asset price busts, asset prices, credit aggregates, financial crisis, House prices, monetary aggregates, probit models, stock prices

Long-run money demand in the new EU Member States with exchange rate effects

Generally speaking, money demand models represent a natural benchmark against which monetary developments can be assessed. In particular, the existence of a well-specified and stable relationship between money and prices can be perceived as a prerequisite for the use of monetary aggregates in the conduct of monetary policy. In this study a money demand analysis in the new Member States of the European Union (EU) is conducted using panel cointegration methods. A well-behaved long run money demand relationship can be identified only if the exchange rate as part of the opportunity cost is included. In the long-run cointegrating vector the income elasticity exceeds unity. Moreover, over the whole sample period the exchange rates vis-à-vis the US dollar turn out to be significant and a more appropriate variable in the money demand than the euro exchange rate. The present analysis is of importance for the new EU Member States as they are expected to join in the future years the euro area, where money is deemed to be highly relevant - within the two-pillar monetary strategy of the European Central Bank (ECB) - in order to detect risks to price stability over the medium term. JEL Classification: C23, E41, E52exchange rate, Money demand, new EU member states, Panel Cointegration