Estimating uncertainty of alcohol-attributable fractions for infectious and chronic diseases

Background: Alcohol is a major risk factor for burden of disease and injuries globally. This paper presents a systematic method to compute the 95% confidence intervals of alcohol-attributable fractions (AAFs) with exposure and risk relations stemming from different sources.Methods: The computation was based on previous work done on modelling drinking prevalence using the gamma distribution and the inherent properties of this distribution. The Monte Carlo approach was applied to derive the variance for each AAF by generating random sets of all the parameters. A large number of random samples were thus created for each AAF to estimate variances. The derivation of the distributions of the different parameters is presented as well as sensitivity analyses which give an estimation of the number of samples required to determine the variance with predetermined precision, and to determine which parameter had the most impact on the variance of the AAFs.Results: The analysis of the five Asian regions showed that 150 000 samples gave a sufficiently accurate estimation of the 95% confidence intervals for each disease. The relative risk functions accounted for most of the variance in the majority of cases.Conclusions: Within reasonable computation time, the method yielded very accurate values for variances of AAFs

Coupled-Channels Approach for Dissipative Quantum Dynamics in Near-Barrier Collisions

A novel quantum dynamical model based on the dissipative quantum dynamics of open quantum systems is presented. It allows the treatment of both deep-inelastic processes and quantum tunneling (fusion) within a fully quantum mechanical coupled-channels approach. Model calculations show the transition from pure state (coherent) to mixed state (decoherent and dissipative) dynamics during a near-barrier nuclear collision. Energy dissipation, due to irreversible decay of giant-dipole excitations of the interacting nuclei, results in hindrance of quantum tunneling.Comment: 8 pages, 4 figures, Invited talk by A. Diaz-Torres at the FUSION08 Conference, Chicago, September 22-26, 2008, To appear in AIP Conference Proceeding

Determining the best population-level alcohol consumption model and its impact on estimates of alcohol-attributable harms

BACKGROUND: The goals of our study are to determine the most appropriate model for alcohol consumption as an exposure for burden of disease, to analyze the effect of the chosen alcohol consumption distribution on the estimation of the alcohol Population- Attributable Fractions (PAFs), and to characterize the chosen alcohol consumption distribution by exploring if there is a global relationship within the distribution. METHODS: To identify the best model, the Log-Normal, Gamma, and Weibull prevalence distributions were examined using data from 41 surveys from Gender, Alcohol and Culture: An International Study (GENACIS) and from the European Comparative Alcohol Study. To assess the effect of these distributions on the estimated alcohol PAFs, we calculated the alcohol PAF for diabetes, breast cancer, and pancreatitis using the three above-named distributions and using the more traditional approach based on categories. The relationship between the mean and the standard deviation from the Gamma distribution was estimated using data from 851 datasets for 66 countries from GENACIS and from the STEPwise approach to Surveillance from the World Health Organization. RESULTS: The Log-Normal distribution provided a poor fit for the survey data, with Gamma and Weibull distributions providing better fits. Additionally, our analyses showed that there were no marked differences for the alcohol PAF estimates based on the Gamma or Weibull distributions compared to PAFs based on categorical alcohol consumption estimates. The standard deviation of the alcohol distribution was highly dependent on the mean, with a unit increase in alcohol consumption associated with a unit increase in the mean of 1.258 (95% CI: 1.223 to 1.293) (R2 = 0.9207) for women and 1.171 (95% CI: 1.144 to 1.197) (R2 = 0. 9474) for men. CONCLUSIONS: Although the Gamma distribution and the Weibull distribution provided similar results, the Gamma distribution is recommended to model alcohol consumption from population surveys due to its fit, flexibility, and the ease with which it can be modified. The results showed that a large degree of variance of the standard deviation of the alcohol consumption Gamma distribution was explained by the mean alcohol consumption, allowing for alcohol consumption to be modeled through a Gamma distribution using only average consumption

Fusion-Fission of 16O+197Au at Sub-Barrier Energies

The recent discovery of heavy-ion fusion hindrance at far sub-barrier energies has focused much attention on both experimental and theoretical studies of this phenomenon. Most of the experimental evidence comes from medium-heavy systems such as Ni+Ni to Zr+Zr, for which the compound system decays primarily by charged-particle evaporation. In order to study heavier systems, it is, however, necessary to measure also the fraction of the decay that goes into fission fragments. In the present work we have, therefore, measured the fission cross section of 16O+197Au down to unprecedented far sub-barrier energies using a large position sensitive PPAC placed at backward angles. The preliminary cross sections will be discussed and compared to earlier studies at near-barrier energies. No conclusive evidence for sub-barrier hindrance was found, probably because the measurements were not extended to sufficiently low energies.Comment: Fusion06 - Intl. Conf. on Reaction Mechanisms and Nuclear Structure at the Coulomb Barrier, San Servolo, Venezia, Italy, March 19-223, 2006 5 pages, 4 figure

Upper Limit on the molecular resonance strengths in the 12{}^{12}C+12{}^{12}C fusion reaction

Carbon burning is a crucial process for a number of important astrophysical scenarios. The lowest measured energy is around E$_{\rm c.m.}$=2.1 MeV, only partially overlapping with the energy range of astrophysical interest. The currently adopted reaction rates are based on an extrapolation which is highly uncertain because of potential resonances existing in the unmeasured energy range and the complication of the effective nuclear potential. By comparing the cross sections of the three carbon isotope fusion reactions, ${}^{12}$C+${}^{12}$C, ${}^{12}$C+${}^{13}$C and ${}^{13}$C+${}^{13}$C, we have established an upper limit on the molecular resonance strengths in ${}^{12}$C+${}^{12}$C fusion reaction. The preliminary results are presented and the impact on nuclear astrophysics is discussed.Comment: 4 pages, 3 figures, FUSION11 conference proceedin

Combining best evidence: A novel method to calculate the alcohol-attributable fraction and its variance for injury mortality

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The alcohol-attributable fraction for injury mortality is defined as the proportion of fatal injury that would disappear if consumption went to zero. Estimating this fraction has previously been based on a simplistic view of drinking and associated risk. This paper develops a new way to calculate the alcohol-attributable fraction for injury based on different dimensions of drinking, mortality data, experimental data, survey research, new risk scenarios, and by incorporating different distributions of consumption within populations. For this analysis, the Canadian population in 2005 was used as the reference population.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Binge drinking and average daily consumption were modeled separately with respect to the calculation of the AAF. The acute consumption risk was calculated with a probability-based method that accounted for both the number of binge drinking occasions and the amount of alcohol consumed per occasion. The average daily consumption was computed based on the prevalence of daily drinking at various levels. These were both combined to get an overall estimate. 3 sensitivity analyses were performed using different alcohol consumption parameters to test the robustness of the model. Calculation of the variance to generate confidence limits around the point estimates was accomplished via Monte Carlo resampling methods on randomly generated AAFs that were based on the distribution and prevalence of drinking in the Canadian population.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Overall, the AAFs decrease with age and are significantly lower for women than men across all ages. As binge drinking increases, the injury mortality AAF also increases. Motor vehicle collisions show the largest relative increases in AAF as alcohol consumption is increased, with over a 100% increase in AAF from the lowest to highest consumption category. Among non-motor vehicle collisions, the largest change in total AAF occurred both for homicide and other intentional injuries at about a 15% increase in the AAF from the lowest to the highest binge consumption scenarios.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>This method combines the best available evidence to generate new alcohol-attributable fractions for alcohol-attributable injury mortality. Future research is needed to refine the risk function for non-motor vehicle injury types and to investigate potential interactions between binge drinking and average volume of alcohol consumption.</p

Unrecorded alcohol consumption in Russia: toxic denaturants and disinfectants pose additional risks

In 2005, 30% of all alcohol consumption in Russia was unrecorded. This paper describes the chemical composition of unrecorded and low cost alcohol, including a toxicological evaluation. Alcohol products (n=22) from both recorded and unrecorded sources were obtained from three Russian cities (Saratov, Lipetsk and Irkutsk) and were chemically analyzed. Unrecorded alcohols included homemade samogons, medicinal alcohols and surrogate alcohols. Analysis included alcoholic strength, levels of volatile compounds (methanol, acetaldehyde, higher alcohols), ethyl carbamate, diethyl phthalate (DEP) and polyhexamethyleneguanidine hydrochloride (PHMG). Single samples showed contamination with DEP (275–1269 mg/l) and PHMG (515 mg/l) above levels of toxicological concern. Our detailed chemical analysis of Russian alcohols showed that the composition of vodka, samogon and medicinal alcohols generally did not raise major public health concerns other than for ethanol. It was shown, however, that concentration levels of DEP and PHMG in some surrogate alcohols make these samples unfit for human consumption as even moderate drinking would exceed acceptable daily intakes