Modelling project feasibility robustness by use of scenarios

Key words: Evaluation, Scenario, Uncertainty, Multi-Modal Abstract: This paper presents the application of a new scenario based analysis technique which has been developed for transport infrastructure planning. The approach aims at dealing with uncertainty in the planning environment in a more systematic way than is usually the case when applying scenario analysis. Specifically, the developed scenario approach secures a consistent inclusion of actual scenario elements in the quantitative impact modelling and facilitates a transparent project feasibility robustness analysis. The approach has been implemented in a SCENARIO MANAGER as part of an infrastructure planning decision support system which comprises GIS-related impact models embedded in a tool-box applicable to multi-modal transport investment analysis. Following a brief introduction, the next section of the paper outlines a conceptual scenario model which categorises project uncertainties into three main groups: Objective, adaptive and subjective uncertainty. This model illustrates the correlation between the scenario definition and the uncertainty in the planning environment. This scenario approach distinguishes itself from usual single dominant issue scenarios or prognoses as it is based on thematic scenario writing. In the case presented, four scenarios are introduced which have been developed in a recent Danish scenario study: (I) the market-oriented society, (II) the locally-oriented society, (III) the supra-national society and (IV) the technological society. Each scenario is then analysed as concerns its impact on a set of relevant project evaluation criteria. The criteria used stem from the on-going EUNET project funded by the European Commission DGVII, within the Strategic Transport part of the Fourth Framework Programme. Section three of the paper demonstrates the application of the systematic scenario analysis technique by means of a case study. The case concerns multi-modal evaluation of the Harbour Tunnel under the Copenhagen harbour. One-third of central Copenhagen is divided from the rest by the harbour. Presently, the harbour has four road bridge crossings and one rail bridge crossing. The investment in question concerns a fifth road tunnel at the entrance of the harbour, which aims at forming a complete high standard road systems around Copenhagen while at the same time reducing the environmental impacts to the medieval town centre. Four different solutions to the inclusion of the new Harbour Tunnel in the road network are examined. The concept of scenario profiling is introduced, which in an operational manner examines the project robustness related to each of the four project alternatives. The scenario profile gives a comprehensive description of the scenario implications for the socio-economic feasibility of each project alternative. Through a systematic, scenario based set of weights, the overall project robustness is determined. The final section five presents conclusions and recommendations. It is stated that the scenario approach presented is a valuable aid in assisting decision making on transport investment planning. The area for future research into the further integration of model uncertainty with scenario based robustness evaluations, is outlined.

Provisions for old age. Income provisions and retirement

Research on the income situation of today’s and future retirees requires often record based data. Because of their accuracy in the life-course infomation they can also, if they are linked to survey data, make interviews shorter and less demanding for the interviewed persons. Process produced data from the pension fund are already available for these research topics. The data include details about the employment career and other life-course events as far as they are considered in the pensions’ calculation. Nevertheless, additional sources are needed if research projects address the income situation more in detail, in particular the question of poverty or high income in old age. The pension reforms of the past decade have strengthened the second and third pillar in the importance, thereby increasing their importance of occupational pensions and private savings for future old age income. There exist already some detailed and inclusive data for research on old age income and retirement collected for government reports, but not all this data is yet available for scientific research. Furthermore should the exchange of data between social securitiy and/or tax institutions more often be combined with the collection of statistical data in order to improve the possibility of record-to-record linkage.Retirement, old age provisions, public pension fund, process produced data, data linkage

3D-Drucken: Anmerkungen zum momentanen Hype

Der Hype um 3D-Drucken hat mittlerweile den Höhepunkt erreicht: Deutliche Kostensenkungen bei 3D-Druckern, breitere Möglichkeiten des Materialeinsatzes und das Auslaufen kritischer Patente haben die Dynamik in diesem Feld beschleunigt. Industrielles 3D-Drucken hat sich in den letzten beiden Dekaden kontinuierlich weiter entwickelt, bisher aber eher Randbereiche der industriellen Produktion geändert. Individuelles 3D Drucken befindet sich noch in der Anfangsphase und ist eng mit der Do-It-Yourself-Bewegung und mit Crowd-basierten Communities verbunden. Anspruchsvolle Anwendungen außerhalb der Industrie finden sich vor allem in Fablabs, die sich als Orte produzierenden Experimentierens, technischen Lernens und kollektiver Produktion in kreativen Branchen positionieren. Es entspricht dem Hype, dass die Erwartungen sehr weit reichen und von einer neuen urbanen Industrie über eine Transformation industrieller Produktion bis hin zur "Demokratisierung" des Kapitalismus reichen

Auf dem Weg zur integrierten Wirtschaftsförderung: Neue Themen und Herausforderungen

Wirtschaftsförderung hat sich in den vergangenen Jahren erheblich ausdifferenziert. Eine integrierte Wirtschaftsförderung kann nur als Lernprozess erfolgen, der offen für neue Themen und Instrumente ist und einen gemeinsamen strategischen Rahmen bietet. Die Sicherung und Weiterentwicklung des Fachkräftebedarfs wird bei einer Weiterentwicklung der Wirtschaftsförderung eine zentrale Rolle spielen. Dabei geht es nicht allein darum, eine Knappheitssituation zu überwinden, sondern um die langfristige Sicherung der regionalen Wissensbasis. Ein strategischer Fokus auf Kompetenz und Fachkräfte beinhaltet auch die Qualität der Arbeitsplätze, die regionale Lebensqualität und die regionale Wissensteilung

Technologie- und Innovationspolitik: Auf der Suche nach neuen Strategien

In den letzten Dekaden hat sich ein Modell der Technologie- und Innovationspolitik durchgesetzt, das auf vernetzte Projekte, Zusammenarbeit von Unternehmen, Wirtschaft und Staat (Triple Helix), auf wissenschaftliches Wissen und technische Innovationen setzt. Dieses Modell wird seit einigen Jahren durch neue Entwicklungen herausgefordert: Technologische Innovationen werden immer mehr in Zusammenhang mit sozialen Innovationen thematisiert und damit verschiebt sich auch der Fokus auf Technologie- und Innovationspolitik von der vorwettbewerblichen Phase hin zur Entwicklung von Leitmärkten. Die neuen Entwicklungen sind auf der Agenda, aber die Konsequenzen für neue Strategien und Instrumente der Technologie- und Innovationspolitik sind noch nicht entwickelt. Es gibt Beispiele, die den Ausgangspunkt für eine Weiterentwicklung der Technologie- und Innovationspolitik bilden können und dazu beitragen, dass dieses Politikfeld selbst zum Ort von Innovationen wird

Clusterpolitik, intelligente Spezialisierung, soziale Innovationen - neue Impulse in der Innovationspolitik

Clusterpolitik ist die zentrale strukturpolitische Innovation der letzten 20 Jahre und mittlerweile tief im europäischen Mehrebenensystem verankert. Wie sich wirtschaftliche Strukturen verändern, muss sich auch Strukturpolitik ändern. Neue Strategien wie intelligente Spezialisierung und soziale Innovationen liefern Impulse, um Strukturpolitik weiter zu entwickeln. Gefragt ist ein umfassendes Innovationskonzept, dass auch den gesellschaftlichen Problemen Rechnung trägt. Hierbei geht es nicht um eine völlige Neuausrichtung, sondern um einen Lern- und Reflexionsprozess mit dem Ziel der Weiterentwicklung

Fully Convolutional Neural Networks for Dynamic Object Detection in Grid Maps

Grid maps are widely used in robotics to represent obstacles in the environment and differentiating dynamic objects from static infrastructure is essential for many practical applications. In this work, we present a methods that uses a deep convolutional neural network (CNN) to infer whether grid cells are covering a moving object or not. Compared to tracking approaches, that use e.g. a particle filter to estimate grid cell velocities and then make a decision for individual grid cells based on this estimate, our approach uses the entire grid map as input image for a CNN that inspects a larger area around each cell and thus takes the structural appearance in the grid map into account to make a decision. Compared to our reference method, our concept yields a performance increase from 83.9% to 97.2%. A runtime optimized version of our approach yields similar improvements with an execution time of just 10 milliseconds.Comment: This is a shorter version of the masters thesis of Florian Piewak and it was accapted at IV 201

Integrated Product Policy and Environmental Product Innovations: An Empirical Analysis

The European Commission has recently stepped up its promotion of the ?Integrated Product Policy?. The objective of the IPP is to support the realisation of environmental product innovations and thus to achieve a broad reduction of all environmental impacts throughout a product?s life cycle. Based on a unique company level data set for the German manufacturing sector, this paper empirically examines the relationship between environmental organisational measures regarded as IPP measures by the European Commission and environmental product innovations. According to the econometric analysis, the certification of environmental management systems has a significantly positive effect on environmental product innovations. Waste disposal measures or product take-back systems appear to be an even more important driver of environmental product innovations. The econometric analysis also shows that other factors that have been suggested in the literature, such as environmental policy, technology push and market pull, as well as other specific company characteristics have a significantly positive influence on environmental product innovations. According to the descriptive analysis of environmental product innovators, economic aspects (i.e. higher prices) rather than soft factors appear to be the major obstacles to the commercial exploitation of environmental products and thus also to environmental product innovations. --Integrated Product Policy,Product Innovation,Environmental Innovation,Innovation Management,Technological Innovation,Discrete Choice Models