La prévision de la faillite fondée sur l'analyse financière de l'entreprise : un état des lieux

International audienceMany studies of business failure prediction have been carried out in the last thirty years or so. Prediction is based on an economic and financial analysis of failing and non-failing firms with the aim of determining the variables, mainly of an accounting nature, that best distinguish the two categories. The purpose of this review is to assess the relative effectiveness of the different classification methods employed. To that end we identify the common elements while highlighting the different ways in which they are applied empirically. We describe the principle of the available techniques and compare their performance, focusing non-exhaustively on both the founding studies and on more recent research.La prédiction de la faillite des entreprises fait l'objet de nombreux travaux empiriques, depuis une trentaine d'années. Elle se fonde sur l'analyse économique et financière d'entreprises défaillantes et d'entreprises non défaillantes, afin de déterminer les variables, principalement comptables, qui distinguent au mieux les deux catégories de firmes. Nous proposons un état des lieux afin de rendre compte de l'efficacité relative des différentes méthodes de classification utilisées. Dans ce but, nous exposons la démarche commune tout en mettant en évidence les différentes modalités d' application empirique. Nous présentons le principe des techniques disponibles et une comparaison de leur performance, en mettant l'accent, de manière non exhaustive, à la fois sur les études fondatrices et sur les études les plus récente

Soutien financier ou mise en faillite de l'entreprise ? Comprendre la décision de la banque

International audienceBanks have to choose between debt re-negotiation and liquidation of their financially distressed corporate debtors. We review different models to identify key determinants of their choice. The literature on the resolution of financial distress shows that the banks' decision is based on the financial and economic characteristics of the distressed firms. If information is asymmetric, incentive considerations induce banks to be severe. However, if banks own (or are supposed to own) information that other stakeholders do not have, banks may help their debtors in an opportunistic way.Afin de comprendre pour-quoi une banque décide la mise en faillite ou au contraire le soutien de son client en défaut de paiement, nous proposons une relecture de mo-dèles issus de champs théoriques dis-tincts. La littérature consacrée à la ré-solution des crises financières montre que la décision de la banque dépend des potentialités de redressement de la firme. Mais la théorie des contrats prouve la nécessité pour la banque d'une attitude stricte pour limiter l'aléa moral. La théorie bancaire montre que si la banque dispose d'un avantage informationnel par rapport aux tiers, elle peut adopter un com-portement laxiste voire opportuniste

Multiple Banking Relationships: Do SMEs Mistrust Their Banks?

This article focuses on the use of multiple banking relationships by SMEs, a key issue given their strong dependence on bank financing in a context of increasing financial constraints and higher risk of credit rationing since the crisis. We investigate whether the use of multiple banking relationships is explained by firms’ characteristics or by the quality of the banking relationship. We exploit the results of an original survey conducted on a sample of French SMEs in December 2012. According to the traditional theoretical framework of multiple banking, we find that older, bigger, and betterperforming firms are more likely to access multiple banking relationships. We further find that innovative firms are more likely to engage in multiple banking relationships. We also highlight the explanatory power of an alternative model based on the quality of banking relationship: when the manager trusts its main bank, or when he is closer to his loan officer, the firm will be less likely to engage in multiple banking relationships

La structure des crédits syndiqués comme défense contre les problèmes informationnels : une analyse empirique sur le marché français

International audienceThis article shows that, in a loan syndicate, the leading bank determines the syndicate's structure and the contract design to protect participant banks from the risks of asym-metric information. Consequently, firms are not charged a higher spread for lack of transparency. We provide empirical evidence on spreads of syndicated loans in the French market , from 2004 to 2006. Syndicate structure and loan characteristics are shown to depend on the presence of asymmetric information, whereas the spread is essentially explained by default risk, syndicate structure and loan characteristics.Cet article montre que la banque chef de file structure le syn-dicat et le prêt de manière à limiter les incidences négatives des problè-mes informationnels pour les ban-ques, permettant aux firmes les plus opaques de ne pas subir un spread trop élevé. Nous estimons les déter-minants du spread des prêts syndi-qués sur le marché français, de 2004 à 2006. Nous vérifions que les asy-métries d'information déterminent la structure du syndicat et les caractéris-tiques du prêt, alors que le spread est surtout influencé par le risque de défaut de l'emprunteur, par la structure du syndicat et par les caractéristiques du prêt

Les exigences de transparence des accords de Bâle: Aubaine ou fardeau pour les pays en développement ?

Nous analysons l’impact que les exigences de transparence inscrites dans les accords de Bâle ont sur le profit des banques. Leur mise en application au sein des pays en développement fait débat, car les effets attendus sont ambigus. Ainsi, une transparence accrue, impliquant une augmentation des coûts associés - en particulier les coûts opérationnels - pourrait réduire les profits bancaires, même si le niveau des capitaux requis peut diminuer. Le cadre institutionnel joue alors un rôle primordial

La structure des crédits syndiqués comme défense contre les problèmes informationnels - Une analyse empirique sur le marché français

(VF)Cet article montre que la banque chef de file structure le syndicat et le prêt de manière à limiter les incidences négatives des problèmes informationnels pour les banques, permettant aux firmes les plus opaques de ne pas subir un spread trop élevé. Nous estimons les déterminants du spread des prêts syndiqués sur le marché français, de 2004 à 2006. Nous vérifions que les asymétries d’information déterminent la structure du syndicat et les caractéristiques du prêt, alors que le spread est surtout influencé par le risque de défaut de l’emprunteur, par la structure du syndicat et par les caractéristiques du prêt.(VA)This article shows that, in a loan syndicate, the leading bank determines the syndicate’s structure and the contract design to protect participant banks from the risks of asymmetric information. Consequently, firms are not charged a higher spread for lack of transparency. We provide empirical evidence on spreads of syndicated loans in the French market, from 2004 to 2006. Syndicate structure and loan characteristics are shown to depend on the presence of asymmetric information, whereas the spread is essentially explained by default risk, syndicate structure and loan characteristics.prêts syndiqués;transparence;asymétrie d’information;financement bancaire;syndicated loans;disclosure;asymmetric information;banking relationship.

Banking Relationships and Syndicated Loans during the 2008 Financial Crisis

International audienceThe research shows that banking relationships are important to lending. However, few studies focus on the banking relationships in syndicated loans, although these loans have became a major source of financing. The last financial crisis clearly shows the impacts of credit rationing and tightening credit conditions, even in the syndicated loans market. We investigate whether banking relationships help firms to benefit from better terms for syndicated loans in a chaotic financial environment. Using a sample of syndicated loans arranged from 2003 to 2008 in North America and Europe, we find that firms with a previously developed relationship with a lead bank obtained a lower spread and a longer maturity during the financial crisis but did not benefit from larger loan facilities

Does a banking relationship help a firm on the syndicated loans market in a time of financial crisis?

The volume of credit granted in the form of syndicated loans saw a marked downturn in 2008. This article seeks to understand how certain firms were nonetheless able to benefit from larger facilities or a lower interest rate than others. Using a sample of syndicated loans issued in 2008 in North America and Europe, and records of syndicated loans since 2003, we show that firms that had developed a relationship with an investment bank obtained a lower spread, but did not benefit from greater loan facilities or longer maturities

Disclosure, banks CDS spreads and the European sovereign crisis

We investigate the impact of banks disclosure on the evolution of their CDS spreads during the European sovereign crisis. The disclosure of information helps investors in building expectations; disclosure may participate into the reduction of the information risk premium and may lead to a decrease of CDS spreads. We analyze the CDS spreads changes following the announcement of sovereign credit rating downgrades. We consider 16 dates in the period 2011-2013 and, for each one, we assess the cumulative abnormal CDS spread change (CASC). We build two disclosure indexes: one general and one specifically dedicated to sovereign exposure. We show that the bank exposure to sovereign risk has a positive impact on the CASC. Disclosure about sovereign exposure has a negative impact on CASC showing that information reduce risk premiums. However, the global disclosure increases the CASC; investors may disapprove the disclosure of too much abundant and broad information

Investigation of corrosion behaviour of carbon steel in simulated soil solution from anodic component of polarisation curve

Abstract: Marine structures and buried pipelines are constantly exposed to extreme conditions with elements such as temperature variation, soil ion content, dissolved metals, etc posing a continuous threat on the integrity and lifespan of the structures. Quantification of these elements has been limited to studying only a few of the parameters, with the resulting corrosion behaviour not fully understood. The purpose of this study was to investigate the corrosion behaviour of carbon steel in simulated soil solution using the anodic component attained from modelled polarisation curves. The behaviour of the metal/electrolyte interface was studied using non-invasive in-situ electrochemical techniques at OCP. A combination of voltammetry, electrochemical impedance spectroscopy with X-ray diffraction analysis of the mineral layer were utilised. The expression for the anodic component of the current as a function of potential was attained from log|ja| vs. potential plots. Mathematical modelling of the experimental polarisation curves was done using OriginPro Data Analysis & Graphing Software. Results showed that at OCP, lepidocrocite, carbonated green rust, calcite and aragonite were found as the corrosion process involved anodic and cathodic zones. Voltammetry around OCP (VAOCP) and linear polarisation resistance (LPR) showed the necessity for corrosion protection as the adopted electrochemical system resulted in a progressively corrosive environment. Kinetics and mechanism of the anodic and cathodic process indicated corrosion processes similar to aerated soil conditions