Quantifying the radiation belt seed population in the 17 March 2013 electron acceleration event

Abstract We present phase space density (PSD) observations using data from the Magnetic Electron Ion Spectrometer instrument on the Van Allen Probes for the 17 March 2013 electron acceleration event. We confirm previous results and quantify how PSD gradients depend on the first adiabatic invariant. We find a systematic difference between the lower-energy electrons (1-MeV with a source region within the radiation belts. Our observations show that the source process begins with enhancements to the 10s-100s-keV energy seed population, followed by enhancements to the \u3e1-MeV population and eventually leading to enhancements in the multi-MeV electron population these observations provide the clearest evidence to date of the timing and nature of the radial transport of a 100s keV electron seed population into the heart of the outer belt and subsequent local acceleration of those electrons to higher radiation belt energies. Key Points Quantification of phase space density gradients inside geostationary orbit Clear differences between the source of low energy and relativistic electrons Clear observations of how the acceleration process evolves in energy

James van Allen and his namesake NASA mission

Abstract In many ways, James A. Van Allen defined and “invented” modern space research. His example showed the way for government-university partners to pursue basic research that also served important national and international goals. He was a tireless advocate for space exploration and for the role of space science in the spectrum of national priorities

Empirical predictive models of daily relativistic electron flux at geostationary orbit: Multiple regression analysis

The daily maximum relativistic electron flux at geostationary orbit can be predicted well with a set of daily averaged predictor variables including previous day's flux, seed electron flux, solar wind velocity and number density, AE index, IMF Bz, Dst, and ULF and VLF wave power. As predictor variables are intercorrelated, we used multiple regression analyses to determine which are the most predictive of flux when other variables are controlled. Empirical models produced from regressions of flux on measured predictors from 1 day previous were reasonably effective at predicting novel observations. Adding previous flux to the parameter set improves the prediction of the peak of the increases but delays its anticipation of an event. Previous day's solar wind number density and velocity, AE index, and ULF wave activity are the most significant explanatory variables; however, the AE index, measuring substorm processes, shows a negative correlation with flux when other parameters are controlled. This may be due to the triggering of electromagnetic ion cyclotron waves by substorms that cause electron precipitation. VLF waves show lower, but significant, influence. The combined effect of ULF and VLF waves shows a synergistic interaction, where each increases the influence of the other on flux enhancement. Correlations between observations and predictions for this 1 day lag model ranged from 0.71 to 0.89 (average: 0.78). A path analysis of correlations between predictors suggests that solar wind and IMF parameters affect flux through intermediate processes such as ring current (Dst), AE, and wave activity

Quantifying the relative contributions of substorm injections and chorus waves to the rapid outward extension of electron radiation belt

Abstract We study the rapid outward extension of the electron radiation belt on a timescale of several hours during three events observed by Radiation Belt Storm Probes and Time History of Events and Macroscale Interactions during Substorms satellites and particularly quantify the contributions of substorm injections and chorus waves to the electron flux enhancement near the outer boundary of radiation belt. A comprehensive analysis including both observations and simulations is performed for the first event on 26 May 2013. The outer boundary of electron radiation belt moved from L = 5.5 to L \u3e 6.07 over about 6 h, with up to 4 orders of magnitude enhancement in the 30 keV to 5 MeV electron fluxes at L = 6. The observations show that the substorm injection can cause 100% and 20% of the total subrelativistic (∼0.1 MeV) and relativistic (2-5 MeV) electron flux enhancements within a few minutes. The data-driven simulation supports that the strong chorus waves can yield 60%-80% of the total energetic (0.2-5.0 MeV) electron flux enhancement within about 6 h. Some simple analyses are further given for the other two events on 2 and 29 June 2013, in which the contributions of substorm injections and chorus waves are shown to be qualitatively comparable to those for the first event. These results clearly illustrate the respective importance of substorm injections and chorus waves for the evolution of radiation belt electrons at different energies on a relatively short timescale. Key Points Rapid outward extension of electron radiation belt observed by RBSP and THEMIS A two-step scenario to explain the rapid flux enchantment Differentiating between contributions of substorm injections and chorus waves

An empirically observed pitch-angle diffusion eigenmode in the Earth\u27s electron belt near L* = 5.0

Abstract Using data from NASA\u27s Van Allen Probes, we have identified a synchronized exponential decay of electron flux in the outer zone, near L* = 5.0. Exponential decays strongly indicate the presence of a pure eigenmode of a diffusion operator acting in the synchronized dimension(s). The decay has a time scale of about 4 days with no dependence on pitch angle. While flux at nearby energies and L* is also decaying exponentially, the decay time varies in those dimensions. This suggests the primary decay mechanism is elastic pitch angle scattering, which itself depends on energy and L *. We invert the shape of the observed eigenmode to obtain an approximate shape of the pitch angle diffusion coefficient and show excellent agreement with diffusion by plasmaspheric hiss. Our results suggest that empirically derived eigenmodes provide a powerful diagnostic of the dynamic processes behind exponential decays

Application and testing of the L neural network with the self-consistent magnetic field model of RAM-SCB

Abstract We expanded our previous work on L neural networks that used empirical magnetic field models as the underlying models by applying and extending our technique to drift shells calculated from a physics-based magnetic field model. While empirical magnetic field models represent an average, statistical magnetospheric state, the RAM-SCB model, a first-principles magnetically self-consistent code, computes magnetic fields based on fundamental equations of plasma physics. Unlike the previous L neural networks that include McIlwain L and mirror point magnetic field as part of the inputs, the new L neural network only requires solar wind conditions and the Dst index, allowing for an easier preparation of input parameters. This new neural network is compared against those previously trained networks and validated by the tracing method in the International Radiation Belt Environment Modeling (IRBEM) library. The accuracy of all L neural networks with different underlying magnetic field models is evaluated by applying the electron phase space density (PSD)-matching technique derived from the Liouville\u27s theorem to the Van Allen Probes observations. Results indicate that the uncertainty in the predicted L is statistically (75%) below 0.7 with a median value mostly below 0.2 and the median absolute deviation around 0.15, regardless of the underlying magnetic field model. We found that such an uncertainty in the calculated L value can shift the peak location of electron phase space density (PSD) profile by 0.2 RE radially but with its shape nearly preserved. Key Points L* neural network based on RAM-SCB model is developed L* calculation accuracy is estimated by PSD matching using RBSP data L* uncertainty causes a radial shift in the electron phase space density profile

Analysis of the effectiveness of ground-based VLF wave observations for predicting or nowcasting relativistic electron flux at geostationary orbit

Post-storm relativistic electron flux enhancement at geosynchronous orbit has shown correlation with very low frequency (VLF) waves measured by satellite in situ. However, our previous study found little correlation between electron flux and VLF measured by a ground-based instrument at Halley, Antarctica. Here we explore several possible explanations for this low correlation. Using 220 storms (1992–2002), our previous work developed a predictive model of the post-storm flux at geosynchronous orbit based on explanatory variables measured a day or two before the flux increase. In a nowcast model, we use averages of variables from the time period when flux is rising during the recovery phase of geomagnetic storms, and limit the VLF (1.0 kHz) measure to the dawn period at Halley (9–12 UT). This improves the simple correlation of VLF wave intensity with flux, although the VLF effect in an overall multiple regression is still much less than that of other factors. When analyses are performed separately for season and IMF Bz orientation, VLF outweighs the influence of other factors only during winter months when IMF Bz is in an average northward orientation

Prediction of relativistic electron flux at geostationary orbit following storms: Multiple regression analysis

Many solar wind and magnetosphere parameters correlate with relativistic electron flux following storms. These include relativistic electron flux before the storm, seed electron flux, solar wind velocity and number density (and their variation), IMF Bz, AE and Kp indices, and ultra low frequency (ULF) and very low frequency (VLF) wave power. However, as all these variables are intercorrelated, we use multiple regression analyses to determine which are the most predictive of flux when other variables are controlled. Using 219 storms (1992-2002), we obtained hourly averaged electron fluxes for outer radiation belt relativistic electrons (>1.5 MeV) and seed electrons (100 keV) from LANL spacecraft (geosynchronous orbit). For each storm, we found the log10 maximum relativistic electron flux 48-120 hours after the end of the main phase of each storm. Each predictor variable was averaged over the 12 hours before the storm, main phase, and the 48 hours following minimum Dst. High levels of flux following storms are best modeled by a set of variables. In decreasing influence, ULF, seed electron flux, Vsw and its variation, and after-storm Bz were the most significant explanatory variables. Kp can be added to the model, but it adds no further explanatory power. Although we included ground-based VLF power from Halley, Antarctica, it shows little predictive ability. We produced predictive models using the coefficients from the regression models, and assessed their effectiveness in predicting novel observations. The correlation between observed values and those predicted by these empirical models ranged from .645 to .795

Oxygen ion dynamics in the Earth's ring current: Van Allen probes observations

Oxygen (O+) enhancements in the inner magnetosphere are often observed during geomagnetically active times, such as geomagnetic storms. In this study, we quantitatively examine the difference in ring current dynamics with and without a substantial O+ ion population based on almost 6 years of Van Allen Probes observations. Our results have not only confirmed previous finding of the role of O+ ions to the ring current but also found that abundant O+ ions are always present during large storms when sym-H < -60 nT without exception, whilst having the pressure ratio () between O+ and proton (H+) larger than 0.8 and occasionally even larger than 1 when L < 3. Simultaneously, the pressure anisotropy decreases with decreasing sym-H and increasing L shell. The pressure anisotropy decrease during the storm main phase is likely related to the pitch angle isotropization processes. In addition, we find that increases during the storm main phase and then decreases during the storm recovery phase, suggesting faster buildup and decay of O+ pressure compared to H+ ions, which are probably associated with some species dependent source and/or energization as well as loss processes in the inner magnetosphere.Accepted manuscrip

On the cause and extent of outer radiation belt losses during the 30 September 2012 dropout event

Abstract On 30 September 2012, a flux dropout occurred throughout Earth\u27s outer electron radiation belt during the main phase of a strong geomagnetic storm. Using eight spacecraft from NASA\u27s Time History of Events and Macroscale Interactions during Substorms (THEMIS) and Van Allen Probes missions and NOAA\u27s Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites constellation, we examined the full extent and timescales of the dropout based on particle energy, equatorial pitch angle, radial distance, and species. We calculated phase space densities of relativistic electrons, in adiabatic invariant coordinates, which revealed that loss processes during the dropout were \u3e 90% effective throughout the majority of the outer belt and the plasmapause played a key role in limiting the spatial extent of the dropout. THEMIS and the Van Allen Probes observed telltale signatures of loss due to magnetopause shadowing and subsequent outward radial transport, including similar loss of energetic ring current ions. However, Van Allen Probes observations suggest that another loss process played a role for multi-MeV electrons at lower L shells (L\u3c ∼4). Key Points Dropout events can encompass the entire outer radiation belt Dropouts can result in \u3e90% losses and be a hard reset on the system Loss at L \u3e ∼4 is dominated by MP shadowing and outward transport