Neutrophil lymphocyte ratio in outcome prediction after emergency abdominal surgery in the elderly

AbstractIntroductionAccurate prediction of outcome after emergency surgery in elderly patients may assist decision-making. Many scoring systems require post-operative data (e.g. P-POSSUM) whilst others have failed to gain widespread use. Recent reports suggest that C-reactive protein (CRP) and the neutrophil lymphocyte (N/L ratio) ratio may predict surgical outcome.MethodsA retrospective review of all patients aged 80 years or over undergoing emergency abdominal surgery over a 22 month period was conducted. Outcome and clinical data were collected. Univariate, multivariate and recursive analyses were performed for outcome at 30 days, 6 months and 12 months. Findings were validated in a second independent dataset.Results88 patients were included in the test dataset, median age 84 years. 30-day mortality was 31%, 6-month mortality 43% and 12-month mortality 50%. Univariate analysis identified N/L ratio, CRP, midline laparotomy, and surgical risk score to predict outcome at each time point. Recursive analysis showed, N/L ratio ≥22 best predicted 30-day outcome (p=0.0018). Multivariate analysis identified N/L ratio to be an independent predictor of 30-day outcome (p=0.004) yet CRP did not predict outcome at any time point. An independent dataset (n=84) confirmed N/L ratio to be a prognostic factor at 30 days (p=0.001), 6 months (p<0.001) and 12 months (p=0.001).ConclusionN/L ratio is an easily calculable pre-operative measure that may have utility in the prediction of outcome after emergency abdominal surgery in the elderly. Further work to validate this measure in a larger, prospective setting and determine the underlying mechanisms that mediate outcome are necessary

Postoperative complications after pancreatoduodenectomy for malignancy: results from the Recurrence After Whipple’s (RAW) study

Background Pancreatoduodenectomy (PD) is associated with significant postoperative morbidity. Surgeons should have a sound understanding of the potential complications for consenting and benchmarking purposes. Furthermore, preoperative identification of high-risk patients can guide patient selection and potentially allow for targeted prehabilitation and/or individualized treatment regimens. Using a large multicentre cohort, this study aimed to calculate the incidence of all PD complications and identify risk factors. Method Data were extracted from the Recurrence After Whipple’s (RAW) study, a retrospective cohort study of PD outcomes (29 centres from 8 countries, 2012–2015). The incidence and severity of all complications was recorded and potential risk factors for morbidity, major morbidity (Clavien–Dindo grade > IIIa), postoperative pancreatic fistula (POPF), post-pancreatectomy haemorrhage (PPH) and 90-day mortality were investigated. Results Among the 1348 included patients, overall morbidity, major morbidity, POPF, PPH and perioperative death affected 53 per cent (n = 720), 17 per cent (n = 228), 8 per cent (n = 108), 6 per cent (n = 84) and 4 per cent (n = 53), respectively. Following multivariable tests, a high BMI (P = 0.007), an ASA grade > II (P II patients were at increased risk of major morbidity (P < 0.0001), and a raised BMI correlated with a greater risk of POPF (P = 0.001). Conclusion In this multicentre study of PD outcomes, an ASA grade > II was a risk factor for major morbidity and a high BMI was a risk factor for POPF. Patients who are preoperatively identified to be high risk may benefit from targeted prehabilitation or individualized treatment regimens