Forecasting volcanic ash dispersal and coeval resuspension during the April-May 2015 Calbuco eruption

Atmospheric dispersion of volcanic ash from explosive eruptions or from subsequent fallout deposit resuspension causes a range of impacts and disruptions on human activities and ecosystems. The April-May 2015 Calbuco eruption in Chile involved eruption and resuspension activities. We overview the chronology, effects, and products resulting from these events, in order to validate an operational forecast strategy for tephra dispersal. The modelling strategy builds on coupling the meteorological Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF/ARW) model with the FALL3D dispersal model for eruptive and resuspension processes. The eruption modelling considers two distinct particle granulometries, a preliminary first guess distribution used operationally when no field data was available yet, and a refined distribution based on field measurements. Volcanological inputs were inferred from eruption reports and results from an Argentina-Chilean ash sample data network, which performed in-situ sampling during the eruption. In order to validate the modelling strategy, results were compared with satellite retrievals and ground deposit measurements. Results indicate that the WRF-FALL3D modelling system can provide reasonable forecasts in both eruption and resuspension modes, particularly when the adjusted granulometry is considered. The study also highlights the importance of having dedicated datasets of active volcanoes furnishing first-guess model inputs during the early stages of an eruption.Fil: Reckziegel, Florencia Mabel. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Salta. Instituto de Investigaciones en Energía no Convencional. Universidad Nacional de Salta. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas. Departamento de Física. Instituto de Investigaciones en Energía no Convencional; ArgentinaFil: Bustos, Emilce. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Salta. Instituto de Investigaciones en Energía no Convencional. Universidad Nacional de Salta. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas. Departamento de Física. Instituto de Investigaciones en Energía no Convencional; ArgentinaFil: Leonardo, Mingari. Ministerio de Defensa. Secretaria de Planeamiento. Servicio Meteorológico Nacional; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; ArgentinaFil: Baez, Walter Ariel. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Salta. Instituto de Investigaciones en Energía no Convencional. Universidad Nacional de Salta. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas. Departamento de Física. Instituto de Investigaciones en Energía no Convencional; ArgentinaFil: Villarosa, Gustavo. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Patagonia Norte. Instituto de Investigaciones en Biodiversidad y Medioambiente. Universidad Nacional del Comahue. Centro Regional Universidad Bariloche. Instituto de Investigaciones en Biodiversidad y Medioambiente; ArgentinaFil: Folch Duran, Arnau. Barcelona Supercomputing Center - Centro Nacional de Supercomputacion; EspañaFil: Collini, E.. Ministerio de Defensa. Secretaria de Planeamiento. Servicio Meteorológico Nacional; Argentina. Ministerio de Defensa. Armada Argentina. Servicio de Hidrografía Naval; ArgentinaFil: Viramonte, Jose German. Universidad Nacional de Salta; ArgentinaFil: Romero, J.. Centro de Investigación y Difusión de Volcanes de Chile; Chile. Universidad de Atacama; ChileFil: Osores, María Soledad. Comision Nacional de Actividades Espaciales; Argentina. Ministerio de Defensa. Secretaria de Planeamiento. Servicio Meteorológico Nacional; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentin

ATLAS-1.0: Atmospheric Lagrangian dispersion model for tephra transport and deposition

ATLAS-1.0 (ATmospheric LAgrangian diSpersion) is a new atmospheric dispersion and sedimentation Lagrangian model tailored to volcanic tephra/ash. The model solves the Advection–Diffusion–Sedimentation equation across multiple scales (from regional to global) and can be driven off-line by different numerical weather prediction models in combination. For example, meteorological data from the mesoscale Weather Research Forecast (WRF) model can be combined with data from the Global Forecast System (GFS) so that ATLAS automatically selects the highest resolution data available in any part of the computational domain. ATLAS can be used in forward mode to forecast ash dispersal from a volcano (or from extended sources) or in backward mode to integrate trajectories backwards in time and constrain unknown source term characteristics. Multiple source terms can be defined, e.g. to simulate several eruption phases with different granulometric characteristics on a single model execution. We validate the implementation of the model using the 2011 Cordón Caulle and the 2015 Calbuco eruptions and compare the results with previous simulations performed with the FALL3D model. The code has been designed from scratch to facilitate future parallelization, inclusion of ash resuspension schemes, and ensemble-based probabilistic forecast assimilating data from satellite retrievals.Fil: Reckziegel, Florencia Mabel. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Salta. Instituto de Investigaciones en Energía no Convencional. Universidad Nacional de Salta. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas. Departamento de Física. Instituto de Investigaciones en Energía no Convencional; ArgentinaFil: Folch Duran, Arnau. Barcelona Supercomputing Center; EspañaFil: Viramonte, Jose German. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Salta. Instituto de Investigaciones en Energía no Convencional. Universidad Nacional de Salta. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas. Departamento de Física. Instituto de Investigaciones en Energía no Convencional; Argentin

Repeated extraction of aphyric melts in a rhyolitic system revealed by zircon age and composition: The Ramadas Volcanic Centre (Puna plateau), NW Argentina

Rhyolitic volcanism can provide important information about the mechanisms by which highly-evolved crystal-poor melts can be extracted from silicic crystal-mush reservoirs. In the Altiplano-Puna plateau (Central Andes), rhyolites are volumetrically less abundant than the high-volume, crystal-rich intermediate products emitted during the ignimbritic flare-up (ca. 10–1 Ma), and their geological and temporal relation with the widespread, upper crustal, dacitic mush systems is not well constrained. We studied the isotopic (U–Pb ages), trace (U, Th, Hf, Y, Ti, P) and rare earth element compositions of zircon contained in the rhyolitic products of the Ramadas Volcanic Centre (late Miocene), which erupted extremely-aphyric, garnet-bearing tubular pumice during a single Plinian event (Corte Blanco Tuff; northern Puna plateau). Results reveal a complex pre-eruptive magmatic history characterized by variable crystallization conditions existing at different times within an upper-crustal crystal-mush reservoir. The unmixing model applied to magmatic zircon sharing textural and geochemical features (oscillatory texture, Th/U = 0.2–0.6; Eu/Eu* = 0.1–0.7) indicates the existence of at least two mush-related crystallization events, which are separated by a protracted hiatus (ca. 2 Ma), and are supported by independent isotopic ages. An episode of zircon crystallization (average disequilibrium-corrected 206Pb/238U age of 9.06 ± 0.19 Ma) coincides with the ages determined for accessory phases associated with garnet in pumice samples (9.163 ± 0.037 Ma, U–Pb age determination on zircon; 8.70 ± 0.23 Ma, U-Th-Pb age determination on monazite). A further zircon crystallization event is recorded at ca. 6.64 ± 0.12 Ma, which is concordant with published radiometric ages dating the eruption at 6.3 ± 0.3 Ma (average 40Ar/39Ar age of glass shards from distal locations) and at 6.63 ± 0.28 Ma (fission track age of proximal obsidian). The existence of a late-stage to hydrothermal crystallization event is evident from another zircon population with low Th/U ratios (< 0.1) and a 206Pb/238U age of 6.514 ± 0.058 Ma, which crystallized in cold and highly-evolved parts of the reservoir resulting in negative Eu/Eu* and Ti depletion in zircon before these crystals were recycled into the erupting magma. The extreme aphyric character of the rhyolitic products and the nearly-complete lack of phenocrysts and glomerocrysts despite their evolved composition indicate that the Plinian eruption was preceded by effective extraction of crystal-poor melts from the mush zone, during which only micrometric antecrystic minerals (≤ 200 μm) were incorporated. Gas filter-pressing, combined with a compressional local stress field, likely contributed to melt-crystal separation, which was favoured by high volatile contents (H2Omelt 3–5 wt%) and shallow emplacement levels (< 10 km). Finally, the distribution of the U-Pb ages of zircon antecrysts suggests a correlation between the evolution of the Ramadas magmatic system and the fluctuating pattern characterizing the Altiplano-Puna Volcanic Complex flare-up activity, highlighting a possible geological and temporal connection between rhyolitic volcanism and the widespread dacitic mush systems in this sector of the Puna plateau.Fil: Bardelli, Lorenzo. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Salta. Instituto de Bio y Geociencias del NOA. Universidad Nacional de Salta. Facultad de Ciencias Naturales. Museo de Ciencias Naturales. Instituto de Bio y Geociencias del NOA; ArgentinaFil: Becchio, Raul Alberto. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Salta. Instituto de Bio y Geociencias del NOA. Universidad Nacional de Salta. Facultad de Ciencias Naturales. Museo de Ciencias Naturales. Instituto de Bio y Geociencias del NOA; ArgentinaFil: Ortiz Yañez, Agustín. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Salta. Instituto de Bio y Geociencias del NOA. Universidad Nacional de Salta. Facultad de Ciencias Naturales. Museo de Ciencias Naturales. Instituto de Bio y Geociencias del NOA; ArgentinaFil: Schmitt, Axel. Ruprecht Karls Universitat Heidelberg. Institut Fur Geowissenschaften.; AlemaniaFil: Pereira, R.. Universidad Nacional de Salta. Facultad de Cs.naturales. Cátedra de Petrología Geonorte; ArgentinaFil: Baez, Walter Ariel. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Salta. Instituto de Bio y Geociencias del NOA. Universidad Nacional de Salta. Facultad de Ciencias Naturales. Museo de Ciencias Naturales. Instituto de Bio y Geociencias del NOA; ArgentinaFil: Reckziegel, Florencia Mabel. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Salta. Instituto de Bio y Geociencias del NOA. Universidad Nacional de Salta. Facultad de Ciencias Naturales. Museo de Ciencias Naturales. Instituto de Bio y Geociencias del NOA; ArgentinaFil: Viramonte, Jose German. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Salta. Instituto de Bio y Geociencias del NOA. Universidad Nacional de Salta. Facultad de Ciencias Naturales. Museo de Ciencias Naturales. Instituto de Bio y Geociencias del NOA; ArgentinaFil: Giordano, Guido. Università Roma Tre Iii. Dipartimento Di Scienze.; Itali

Eruptive style and flow dynamics of the pyroclastic density currents related to the Holocene Cerro Blanco eruption (Southern Puna plateau, Argentina)

The Pleistocene-Holocene Cerro Blanco Volcanic Complex (CBVC), one of the youngest caldera complexes in the Southern Central Andes, is the source of possibly one of largest Holocene eruptions on Earth, the 4.2 ka, Cerro Blanco eruption. This caldera forming eruption is the younger of two major explosive events from the CBVC. Previous work has estimated the range from VEI 6 to 7, yet to date there is no detailed study of the stratigraphy and volcanology of the proximal deposits and dynamics of the Cerro Blanco eruption. Here we present the first detailed analysis of the eruptive products of the Holocene Cerro Blanco eruption that reveal the eruptive sequence highlighting the flow dynamics of the related pyroclastic density currents (PDCs). The PDCs were mainly inertia-dominated, however, channelization of parental PDCs into deep valleys resulted in the flow transformation to forced convection-dominated flows. In addition, topographic constriction in valleys enhanced the sedimentation rate producing regressive bed forms and ultimately the avulsion of the main path of the PDCs resulting in flooding of secondary valleys. A model is presented whereby simultaneous convective and collapsing eruptive column dynamics were established and sustained throughout the eruption. Towards its end, instabilities of the column occurred in response to the climax of a protracted incremental caldera collapse. This eruptive sequence is similar to those observed in well-documented small collapse calderas. An important unresolved issue for the CB eruption is it volume. The currently estimated volume of 83 km3 (DRE) by Fernando-Turiel et al. (2019) is inconsistent with the size of the Cerro Blanco caldera and to date the over thickening of the distal ash by local rework is poor assessed. Further work is needed to fully evaluate this mismatch and accurately estimate the volume of this important Holocene eruption.Fil: Baez, Walter Ariel. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Salta. Instituto de Bio y Geociencias del NOA. Universidad Nacional de Salta. Facultad de Ciencias Naturales. Museo de Ciencias Naturales. Instituto de Bio y Geociencias del NOA; ArgentinaFil: Bustos, Emilce. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Salta. Instituto de Bio y Geociencias del NOA. Universidad Nacional de Salta. Facultad de Ciencias Naturales. Museo de Ciencias Naturales. Instituto de Bio y Geociencias del NOA; ArgentinaFil: Chiodi, Agostina Laura. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Salta. Instituto de Bio y Geociencias del NOA. Universidad Nacional de Salta. Facultad de Ciencias Naturales. Museo de Ciencias Naturales. Instituto de Bio y Geociencias del NOA; ArgentinaFil: Reckziegel, Florencia Mabel. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Salta. Instituto de Bio y Geociencias del NOA. Universidad Nacional de Salta. Facultad de Ciencias Naturales. Museo de Ciencias Naturales. Instituto de Bio y Geociencias del NOA; ArgentinaFil: Arnosio, José Marcelo. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Salta. Instituto de Bio y Geociencias del NOA. Universidad Nacional de Salta. Facultad de Ciencias Naturales. Museo de Ciencias Naturales. Instituto de Bio y Geociencias del NOA; ArgentinaFil: de Silva, Shanaka. State University of Oregon; Estados UnidosFil: Giordano, Guido. Università Roma Tre III; ItaliaFil: Viramonte, Jose German. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Salta. Instituto de Bio y Geociencias del NOA. Universidad Nacional de Salta. Facultad de Ciencias Naturales. Museo de Ciencias Naturales. Instituto de Bio y Geociencias del NOA; ArgentinaFil: Sampietro Vattuone, Maria Marta. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet NOA Sur. Fundación Miguel Lillo. Laboratorio de Geoarqueología. Universidad Nacional de Tucumán. Facultad de Ciencias Naturales e Instituto Miguel Lillo. Laboratorio de Geoarqueología; ArgentinaFil: Peña Monné, Jose Luis. Universidad de Zaragoza; Españ