Long Run Policy Analysis and Long Run Growth

The wide cross-country disparity in rates of economic growth is the most puzzling feature of the development process. This paper describes a class of models in which this type of heterogeneity in growth experiences can arise as a result of cross-country differences in government policy. These differences in policy regimes can also create incentives for labor migration from slow growing to fast growing countries. In the class of models that we study growth is endogenous but the technology exhibits constant returns to scale and there is a steady state path that accords with Kaldor's stylized facts of economic development. The key to making growth endogenous in the absence of increasing returns is the presence of a "core" of capital goods that can be produced without the direct or indirect contribution of factors that cannot be accumulated, such as land.

Transitional Dynamics and Economic Growth in the Neoclassical Model

An understanding of the qualitative nature of the transitional dynamics of the neociassical model - the process of convergence from an initial capital stock to a steady state growth path - is a key part of the shared knowledge of most economists. It forms the basis, for example, of the widespread interest in hypotheses about convergence of levels of national economic activity. Based on several quantitative experiments undertaken in the 1960s with fixed savings rates versions of the neoclassical model, many economists further believe that the transition process can be lengthy, potentially rationalizing differences in growth rates across countries that are sustained for decades. In this paper, we undertake a systematic quantitative investigation of transitional dynamics within the most widely employed versions of the neoclassical model with interteorally optimizing households. Lengthy transitional episodes arise only if there is very low intertemporal substitution. But, more important, we find that the simplest neoclassical model inevitably generates a central implication that is traced to the production technology. Whenever we try to use it to explain major growth episodes, the model produces a rate of return that is counterfactually high in the early stages of development. For example, in seeking to account for U.S-Japan differences in post war growth as a consequence of differences in end-of-war capital, we find that the immediate postwar rate of return in Japan would have had to exceed 500% per annum. Frequently employed variants of the basic neoclassical model - those that introduce adjustment costs, separate production and consumption sectors, and international capital mobility - can potentially sweep this marginal product implication under the rug. However, such alterations necessarily cause major discrepancies to arise in other areas. With investment adjustment costs, for example, the implications resurface in counterfactual variations in Tobin's Q. We interpret our results as illustrating two important principles. First, systematic quantitative investigation of familiar models can provide surprising new insights into their practical operation. Second, explanation of sustained cross country differences in growth rates will require departure from the familiar neoclassical environment.

Impact of Inter-Country Distances on International Tourism

Tourism is a worldwide practice with international tourism revenues increasing from US\$495 billion in 2000 to US\$1340 billion in 2017. Its relevance to the economy of many countries is obvious. Even though the World Airline Network (WAN) is global and has a peculiar construction, the International Tourism Network (ITN) is very similar to a random network and barely global in its reach. To understand the impact of global distances on local flows, we map the flow of tourists around the world onto a complex network and study its topological and dynamical balance. We find that although the WAN serves as infrastructural support for the ITN, the flow of tourism does not correlate strongly with the extent of flight connections worldwide. Instead, unidirectional flows appear locally forming communities that shed light on global travelling behaviour inasmuch as there is only a 15% probability of finding bidirectional tourism between a pair of countries. We conjecture that this is a consequence of one-way cyclic tourism by analyzing the triangles that are formed by the network of flows in the ITN. Finally, we find that most tourists travel to neighbouring countries and mainly cover larger distances when there is a direct flight, irrespective of the time it takes

On the Fiscal Implications of Twin Crises

This paper explores the implications of different strategies for financng the fiscal costs of twin crises for inflation and depreciation rates. We use a first-generation type model of speculative attacks which has four key features: (i) the crisis is triggered by prospective deficits; (ii) there exists outstanding non-indexed government debt issued prior to the crisis; (iii) a portion of the government's liabilities are not indexed to inflation; (iv) there are nontradeable goods and costs of distributing tradeable goods, so that the purchasing power parity does not hold. We show that the model can account for the high rates of devaluation and the moderate rates of inflation often observed in the wake of currency crises. We use our model and the data to interpret the recent currency crises in mexico and Korea. Our analysis suggests that the Mexican government is likely to pay for the bulk of the fiscal costs of its crisis through seignorage revenues. in contrast, the Korean government is likely to rely more on a combination of implicit and explicit fiscal reforms.Currency crisis, banking crisis, speculative attacks, seignorage, fiscal reform bailouts

On the Fundamentals of Self-Fulfilling Speculative Attacks

This paper proposes a theory of twin banking-currency crises in which both fundamentals and self-fulfilling beliefs play crucial roles. Fundamentals determine whether crises will occur. Self-fulfilling beliefs determine when they occur. The fundamental that causes twin crises' is government guarantees to domestic banks' foreign creditors. When these guarantees are in place twin crises inevitably occur, but their timing is a multiple equilibrium phenomenon that depends on agents' beliefs. So while self-fulfilling beliefs have an important role to play, twin crises do not happen just anywhere. They happen in countries where there are fundamental problems - problems such as guarantees to the financial sector.

Equilibrium Unemployment

A search-theoretic model of equilibrium unemployment is constructed and shown to be consistent with the key regularities of the labor market and business cycle. The two distinguishing features of the model are: (i) the decision to accept or reject jobs is modeled explicitly, and (ii) markets are incomplete. The model is well suited to address a number of interesting policy questions. Two such applications are provided: the impact of unemployment insurance, and the welfare costs of business cycles.Search; Incomplete Markets; Business Cycles; Unemployment Insurance; Welfare Costs of Business Cycles.

Why Are Rates of Inflation So Low After Large Devaluations?

This paper studies the behavior of inflation after nine large post-1990 contractionary devaluations. A salient feature of the data is that inflation is low relative to the rate of devaluation. We argue that the distribution costs and substitution away from imports to lower quality local goods can account quantitatively for the post-devaluation behavior of prices.inflation, devaluation, exchange rates

Distribution Costs and Real Exchange Rate Dynamics During Exchange-Rate-Based-Stabilizations

This paper studies the role played by the distribution sector in shaping the behavior of the real exchange rate during exchange-rate-based-stabilizations. We use data for the U.S. and Argentina to document the importance of distribution margins in retail prices and disaggregated price data to study price dynamics in the aftermath of Argentina's 1991 Convertibility plan. Distribution services require local labor and land so they drive a natural wedge between retail prices in different countries. We study in detail the impact of introducing a distribution sector in an otherwise standard model of exchange-rate-based-stabilizations. We show that this simple extension improves dramatically the ability of the model to rationalize observed real exchange rate dynamics.

Fibrations of genus two on complex surfaces

We consider fibrations of genus 2 over complex surfaces. The purpose of this paper is primarily to provide a geometric description of the possible structures of the fibration on a neighborhood of a singular fiber. In particular it is shown that the "geometric data" of the singular fiber determines the fibration on its neighborhood up to a transversely holomorphic $C^{\infty}$-diffeomorphism. The method employed is quite flexible and it applies to good extent to fibrations of arbitrary genus.Comment: This is the final version, June 201