International financial integration and real exchange rate long-run dynamics in emerging countries: Some panel evidence

The aim of this paper is to provide new empirical evidence on the impact of international financial integration on the long-run Real Exchange Rate (RER) in 39 developing countries belonging to three different geographical regions (Latin America, Asia and MENA). It covers the period 1979-2004, and carries out “second-generation” tests for non-stationary panels. Several factors, including international financial integration, are shown to drive the long-run RER in emerging countries. It is found that the new financial environment characterised by international financial integration leads to a depreciation of the RER in the long run. Further, RER misalignments take the form of an under-valuation in most MENA countries and an over-valuation in most Latin American and Asian countries

Sources of real exchange rate volatility and international financial integration: A dynamic GMM panel data approach

The aim of this paper is to provide some new empirical evidence on the determinants of volatility of real exchange rates in emerging countries, focusing on the role of international financial integration in particular. A reduced-form model is estimated using the GMM method for dynamic panels over the period 1979-2004 for a sample of 39 developing countries grouped into three regions (Latin America, Asia and MENA). Our findings suggest that different types of shocks (external, real and monetary) can account for volatility of real exchange rates in emerging economies, with international financial integration being a major driving force. Therefore, financial liberalisation and integration should be pursued only gradually in emerging countries

The impact of association agreements on trade flows and the trade balance: Evidence from the CEEC-4

In this paper we focus on the trade balance effects of free trade agreements between the EU-15 and the CEEC-4 countries using a dynamic panel data approach. Our theoretical framework is the gravity model, and the econometric method used to analyse the effect of the agreement variable is the system generalized method of moments (GMM). Our estimation results indicate a positive and significant impact of FTAs on trade flows. However, exports and imports are affected in different ways, leading to some disparity in trade flow performance between countries. Therefore, there is an asymmetric impact on the trade balance, the agreement variable resulting in a trade balance deficit in the CEEC-4

Determinants of pollution abatement and control expenditure: Evidence from Romania

The aim of the present study is to shed some light on the factors affecting Pollution Abatement and Control Expenditure (PACE) in the context of a transition economy such as Romania, in contrast to the existing literature which mostly focuses on developed economies. Specifically, we use survey data of the Romanian National Institute of Statistics and estimate Multilevel Regression Model (MRM) to investigate the determinants of environmental behaviour at plant level. Our results reveal some important differences vis-à-vis the developed countries, such as a less significant role for collective action and environmental taxes, which suggests some possible policy changes to achieve better environmental outcomes

On the trade balance effects of free trade agreements between the EU-15 and the CEEC-4 countries

The expansion of regionalism has spawned an extensive theoretical literature analysing the effects of Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) on trade flows. In this paper we focus on FTAs (also called European agreements) between the European Union (EU-15) and the Central and Eastern European countries (CEEC-4, i.e. Bulgaria, Hungary, Poland and Romania) and model their effects on trade flows by treating the agreement variable as endogenous. Our theoretical framework is the gravity model, and the econometric method used to isolate and eliminate the potential endogeneity bias of the agreement variable is the fixed effect vector decomposition (FEVD) technique. Our estimation results indicate a positive and significant impact of FTAs on trade flows. However, exports and imports are affected differently, leading to some disparity in trade flow performance between countries. Therefore, there is an asymmetric impact on the trade balance, the agreement variable resulting in a trade balance deficit in the CEEC

Trade specialisation, and economic convergence: Evidence from two eastern european countries

This paper analyses trade specialisation dynamics in two Eastern European countries (Romania and Bulgaria – EEC-2) vis-à-vis the core EU member states (EU-15) over the period 1990-2006. Specifically, we focus on whether there is a shift towards intra-industry trade leading to economic convergence and technological catch-up. We use recently developed static (FEM, REM and FEVD) and dynamic (GMM) panel data methods which take into account possible heterogeneity. Our empirical results indicate that intra-industry trade has indeed increased, but it is of the vertical rather than the horizontal type, resulting in complementary rather than competitive production patterns

Financial development and economic growth: Evidence from ten new EU members

This paper reviews the main features of the banking and financial sector in ten new EU members, and then examines the relationship between financial development and economic growth in these countries by estimating a dynamic panel model over the period 1994-2007. The evidence suggests that the stock and credit markets are still underdeveloped in these economies, and that their contribution to economic growth is limited owing to a lack of financial depth. By contrast, a more efficient banking sector is found to have accelerated growth. Furthermore, Granger causality test indicate that causality runs from financial development to economic growth, but not in the opposite direction

Environmental regulation and competitiveness: Evidence from Romania

According to the pollution haven hypotheses differences in environmental regulation affect trade flows and plant location. Specifically, environmental stringency should decrease exports and increase imports of “dirty” goods. This paper estimates a gravity model to establish whether the implementation of more stringent regulations in Romania has indeed affected its competitiveness and decreased exports towards its European trading partners. Our findings do not provide empirical support to the pollution haven hypothesis, i.e. environmental stringency is not found to affect significantly total trade, or its components (pollution intensive trade and pollution intensive trade related to non-resource-based trade)

Energy Consumption and Economic Growth Revisited in African Countries

The aim of this paper is to provide new empirical evidence on the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth for 21 African countries over the period from 1970 to 2006, using recently developed panel cointegration and causality tests. The countries are divided into two groups: net energy importers and net energy exporters. It is found that there exists a long-run equilibrium relationship between energy consumption, real GDP, prices, labor and capital for each group of countries as well as for the whole set of countries. This result is robust to possible cross-country dependence and still holds when allowing for multiple endogenous structural breaks, which can differ among countries. Furthermore, we find that decreasing energy consumption decreases growth and vice versa, and that increasing energy consumption increases growth, and vice versa, and that this applies for both energy exporters and importers. Finally, there is a marked difference in the cointegration relationship when country groups are considered.Africa, energy consumption, economic growth, panel cointegration, panel causality

Immigration, unemployment and GDP in the host country: Bootstrap panel Granger causality analysis on OECD countries

This paper examines the causality relationship between immigration, unemployment and economic growth of the host country. We employ the panel Granger causality testing approach of Konya (2006) that is based on SUR systems and Wald tests with country specific bootstrap critical values. This approach allows to test for Granger-causality on each individual panel member separately by taking into account the contemporaneous correlation across countries. Using annual data over the 1980-2005 period for 22 OECD countries, we find that, only in Portugal, unemployment negatively causes immigration, while in any country, immigration does not cause unemployment. On the other hand, our results show that, in four countries (France, Iceland, Norway and the United Kingdom), growth positively causes immigration, whereas in any country, immigration does not cause growth