Invasive Plants Distribution Modeling: A Tool for Tropical Biodiversity Conservation With Special Reference to Sri Lanka

The potential threats and habitat preferences of noxious plants in tropical countries are poorly known. Species distribution modeling (SDM) is a robust tool that can be used in conservation planning for early detection of invasion risks. However, the use of SDM for the strategic management of increasing risks of such plant invasions in Sri Lanka has not been undertaken due to several underlying reasons including the long-lasting data gap, technical, technological, and financial issues. In addition, the literature relevant to SDM applications in the country is substantially poor, scattered, and unpublished. Therefore, in this article, we explore SDM applications relevant to invasive plants in Sri Lanka with implications similar to other countries in the tropics. We examine the challenges and potentials for utilization of SDM technology in conservation planning in Sri Lanka and discuss data gap as a major obstacle. We also identify the potential SDM interventions relevant to invasive plants control and management in Sri Lanka and recommend conservation planners to prioritize them and apply for the strategic management of invasive plants in Sri Lanka. Finally, we suggest some recommendations to make an enabling environment in relevant institutions for the utilization of SDM technology in ecosystem management planning in Sri Lanka

Healthy landscapes: Managing agricultural landscapes in socio-ecologically sensitive areas to promote food security, well-being and ecosystem health

The Healthy Landscapes project aims to improve the nutrition, health and overall well-being of cascade landscape communities in Sri Lanka, while also strengthening the restoration and sustainable management of Village Tank Cascade Systems, for the enhanced provision of ecosystem services and protection of biodiversity

Land use-based participatory assessment of ecosystem services for ecological restoration in village tank cascade systems of Sri Lanka

Village Tank Cascade System (VTCS) landscapes in the dry zone of Sri Lanka provide multiple ecosystem services (ESs) and benefits to local communities, sustaining the productivity of their land use systems (LUSs). However, there is a lack of adequate scientific research on the ESs of LUSs, despite the recent land use changes that have greatly impacted the provisioning of ESs. Collection of baseline ESs data is a pre-requisite for decision making on ESs-based ecological restoration and management of the VTCS. Thus, this study aimed at assessing ESs of the Mahakanumulla VTCS (MVTCS) located in the Anuradhapura district of Sri Lanka by using a participatory approach involving the integration of local knowledge, expert judgements and LUSs attribute data to assess the ESs. The methodology was designed to integrate the biodiversity and land degradation status of LUSs in a way that is directly linked with the supply of ESs. The study identified twenty-four ESs of the MVTCS based on community perceptions. The identified ESs were assessed as a function of LUSs to develop an ecosystem service supply (ESS) and demand (ESD) matrix model. The results reveal that the current overall ESD for regulating and supporting ESs is higher than the ESS capacity of MVTCS. The assessment also revealed that land degradation and biodiversity deterioration reduce the capacity to provide ESs. Downstream LUSs of the meso-catchment were found to be more vulnerable to degradation and insufficient to provide ESs. Further, the study established that ESs in the MVTCS are generated through direct species-based and biophysical-based providers. In addition, it emerged that social and cultural engagements also played an important role in association with both providers to generate certain types of ESs. Therefore, it can be concluded that VTCS ecological restoration depends on the extent to which integrated effort addresses the levels of ecological complexity, as well as the social engagement of communities and stakeholders. The results of this study provide a scientific basis that can inform future land use decision making and practices that are applicable to successful ESs-based ecological restoration and management of the VTCSs in the dry zone of Sri Lanka

Neglected and Underutilized Fruit Species in Sri Lanka: Prioritisation and Understanding the Potential Distribution under Climate Change

Neglected and underutilized fruit species (NUFS) can make an important contribution to the economy, food security and nutrition requirement for Sri Lanka. Identifying suitable areas for cultivation of NUFS is of paramount importance to deal with impending climate change issues. Nevertheless, limited studies have been carried out to assess the impact of climate change on the potential distribution of NUFS. Therefore, we examined the potential range changes of NUFS in a tropical climate using a case study from Sri Lanka. We prioritized and modeled the potentially suitable areas for four NUFS, namely Aegle marmelos, Annona muricata, Limonia acidissima and Tamarindus indica under current and projected climates (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) for 2050 and 2070 using the maximum entropy (Maxent) species distribution modeling (SDM) approach. Potentially suitable areas for NUFS are predicted to decrease in the future under both scenarios. Out of the four NUFS, T. indica appears to be at the highest risk due to reduction in potential areas that are suitable for its growth under both emissions scenarios. The predicted suitable area reductions of this species for 2050 and 2070 are estimated as >75% compared to the current climate. A region of potentially higher climatic suitability was found around mid-county for multiple NUFS, which is also predicted to decrease under projected climate change. Further, the study identified high-potential agro-ecological regions (AERs) located in the mid-country’s wet and intermediate zones as the most suitable areas for promoting the cultivation of NUFS. The findings show the potential for incorporating predictive modeling into the management of NUFS under projected climate change. This study highlights the requirements of climate change adaptation strategies and focused research that can increase the resilience of NUFS to future changes in climate

Invasive Plant Species Establishment and Range Dynamics in Sri Lanka under Climate Change

Plant invasion has been widely recognized as an agent of global change that has the potential to have severe impacts under climate change. The challenges posed by invasive alien plant species (IAPS) on biodiversity and ecosystem stability is growing and not adequately studied, especially in developing countries. Defining climate suitability for multiple invasive plants establishment is important for early and strategic interventions to control and manage plant invasions. We modeled priority IAPS in Sri Lanka to identify the areas of greatest climatic suitability for their establishment and observed how these areas could be altered under projected climate change. We used Maximum Entropy method to model 14 nationally significant IAPS under representative concentration pathways 4.5 and 8.5 for 2050 and 2070. The combined climate suitability map produced by summing up climatic suitability of 14 IAPS was further classified into five classes in ArcMap as very high, high, moderate, low, and very low. South and west parts of Sri Lanka are projected to have potentially higher climatic suitability for a larger number of IAPS. We observed suitable area changes (gains and losses) in all five classes of which two were significant enough to make an overall negative impact i.e., (i) contraction of the very low class and (ii) expansion of the moderate class. Both these changes trigger the potential risk from IAPS in Sri Lanka in the future

Potential Risks of Plant Invasions in Protected Areas of Sri Lanka under Climate Change with Special Reference to Threatened Vertebrates

There is substantial global concern over the potential impacts of plant invasions on native biodiversity in protected areas (PAs). Protected areas in tropical island countries that host rich biodiversity face an imminent risk from the potential spread of invasive alien plant species. Thus, the aim of this study was to gain a general understanding of the potential risks of multiple plant invasions in PAs located in the tropical island of Sri Lanka under projected climate change. We conducted a further analysis of a multi-species climate suitability assessment, based on a previous study using the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) modeling approach, and tested how species invasion may change in protected areas under climate change. We evaluated how the climate suitability of 14 nationally recognized invasive alien plant species (IAPS) will vary within PAs and outside PAs by 2050 under two climate change scenarios, representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5. Our findings suggest that there will be increased risks from multiple IAPS inside PAs and outside PAs in Sri Lanka in the future; however, the potential risk is comparatively less in PAs. We provide an overview of the species richness of selected threatened vertebrate groups, which can be potentially impacted by IAPS in PAs. The findings of this study highlight important implications for the strategic management of plant invasions in PAs in order to safeguard native biodiversity, with special reference to vertebrates

Neglected and Underutilized Fruit Species in Sri Lanka: Prioritisation and Understanding the Potential Distribution under Climate Change

Neglected and underutilized fruit species (NUFS) can make an important contribution to the economy, food security and nutrition requirement for Sri Lanka. Identifying suitable areas for cultivation of NUFS is of paramount importance to deal with impending climate change issues. Nevertheless, limited studies have been carried out to assess the impact of climate change on the potential distribution of NUFS. Therefore, we examined the potential range changes of NUFS in a tropical climate using a case study from Sri Lanka. We prioritized and modeled the potentially suitable areas for four NUFS, namely Aegle marmelos, Annona muricata, Limonia acidissima and Tamarindus indica under current and projected climates (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) for 2050 and 2070 using the maximum entropy (Maxent) species distribution modeling (SDM) approach. Potentially suitable areas for NUFS are predicted to decrease in the future under both scenarios. Out of the four NUFS, T. indica appears to be at the highest risk due to reduction in potential areas that are suitable for its growth under both emissions scenarios. The predicted suitable area reductions of this species for 2050 and 2070 are estimated as >75% compared to the current climate. A region of potentially higher climatic suitability was found around mid-county for multiple NUFS, which is also predicted to decrease under projected climate change. Further, the study identified high-potential agro-ecological regions (AERs) located in the mid-country’s wet and intermediate zones as the most suitable areas for promoting the cultivation of NUFS. The findings show the potential for incorporating predictive modeling into the management of NUFS under projected climate change. This study highlights the requirements of climate change adaptation strategies and focused research that can increase the resilience of NUFS to future changes in climate

Long-Term Changes of Aquatic Invasive Plants and Implications for Future Distribution: A Case Study Using a Tank Cascade System in Sri Lanka

Climate variability can influence the dynamics of aquatic invasive alien plants (AIAPs) that exert tremendous pressure on aquatic systems, leading to loss of biodiversity, agricultural wealth, and ecosystem services. However, the magnitude of these impacts remains poorly known. The current study aims to analyse the long-term changes in the spatio-temporal distribution of AIAPs under the influence of climate variability in a heavily infested tank cascade system (TCS) in Sri Lanka. The changes in coverage of various features in the TCS were analysed using the supervised maximum likelihood classification of ten Landsat images over a 27-year period, from 1992 to 2019 using ENVI remote sensing software. The non-parametric Mann–Kendall trend test and Sen’s slope estimate were used to analyse the trend of annual rainfall and temperature. We observed a positive trend of temperature that was statistically significant (p value p values > 0.05) over the time period. Our results showed fluctuations in the distribution of AIAPs in the short term; however, the coverage of AIAPs showed an increasing trend in the study area over the longer term. Thus, this study suggests that the AIAPs are likely to increase under climate variability in the study area

Potential risks of Invasive Alien Plant Species on native plant biodiversity in Sri Lanka due to climate change

There have been few studies investigating the implications of the potential distribution of plant
 invasions on native biodiversity due to climate change. In this study, we used combined climatic
 suitability maps of 14 priority Invasive Alien Plant Species (IAPS) in Sri Lanka under the current
 climate and under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 climate scenarios
 for 2050 to examine the potential risks of plant invasions on native plant biodiversity. We used
 three types of layers defining plant biodiversity patterns for Sri Lanka; (i) nine zones of plant
 endemism (zones of high floristic richness and endemicity), (ii) eleven threatened endemic taxa
 and (iii) eight forest-related ecosystems. Our results reveal that the biodiversity-rich zones of
 endemism are at potentially high-risk under climate change. The potential risks on threatened
 endemic plants are likely to reduce slightly under an RCP 4.5 low-emissions scenario and be
 intensified under an RCP 8.5 high-emissions scenario. Forest-related ecosystems are vulnerable
 to IAPS to varying degrees; dry zone ecosystems are predicted to increase the risks of IAPS, while
 those in the wet zone are envisioned to decrease. Overall, our findings suggest that the potential
 risks of plant invasions on native plant biodiversity differ significantly under projected climate
 change. Greater understanding of the potential risks of IAPS at an early stage is important in
 prioritising future conservation measures for effective protection of native biodiversity

Impact of Climate Change on Paddy Farming in the Village Tank Cascade Systems of Sri Lanka

Consequences of global climate change are predicted to increase risks to crop production in the future. However, the possible broader impact of climate change on social-ecological systems still needs to be evaluated. Therefore, the present study focuses on one such globally important agricultural social-ecological system referred to as the Village Tank Cascade System (VTCS) in the dry zone of Sri Lanka. The VTCS has considerable potential to withstand seasonal climate variability mainly through continuous supply of water by the village tank storage throughout the year. The current study aimed to investigate trends of climate variability and possible impacts on paddy production in the North and North-central VTCS zone. Observed and projected rainfall and temperature data were analysed to evaluate the past variability trends (1970 to 2020) and model future (up to 2100) scenarios of climate variability and trends. Long-term observed rainfall and temperature data (1946 to 2020) were analysed to identify possible anomalies. The Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model has been used to predict the situation of future paddy farming (2050 and 2070) under two climate scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Six variables that would affect paddy growth and yield quality were used alongside the average monthly rainfall and temperature of two Global Climate Models (MIROC5 and MPI-ESM-LR). Climate suitability for two paddy cultivation seasons (Yala and Maha) were predicted for current and future climate scenarios. The findings revealed that observed and projected climate changes show considerable deviation of expected rainfall and temperature trends across the VTCS zone. Temperature exhibits warming of approximately 1.0 °C during the declared Global Warming Period (1970 to 2020) in the study area. In addition, there is a trend of significant warming by 0.02 °C/year, RCP4.5 and 0.03 °C/year, RCP8.5 from 1950 to 2100. Rainfall (1970–2020) shows high interannual variability but trends were not significant and less discernible. However, long-term projected rainfall data (1950–2100) analysis detected a significant (p = 0) upward trend (2.0 mm/year, RCP4.5 and 2.9 mm/year, RCP8.5), which is expected to continue up to the end of this century. Further, the study revealed some shifts in temperature towards higher values and positive anomalies in rainfall affecting seasonality and the likelihood of more extreme occurrences in the future, especially during the Maha cultivation season. The MaxEnt model predicts the following under future climate scenarios: (i) spatio-temporal shifts (conversions) in climate suitability for paddy farming in the VTCS zone; (ii) substantial low and moderate suitability areas that are currently suitable will remain unchanged; (iii) up to 96% of highly suitable and 38% of moderately suitable paddy growing areas in the VTCS zone will be at risk due to a decline in future climate suitability; and (iv) expansion of lower suitability areas by approximately 22% to 37%, due to conversion from moderate suitability areas. The study provides evidence that the continuous warming trend with increasing variability in rainfall and shifting seasonality could increase the vulnerability of future paddy farming in the VTCS. Thus, findings of this study will help planners to make more targeted solutions to improve adaptive capacity and regain the resilience to adjust the paddy farming pattern to deal with predicted climate variability and change