88 research outputs found

    Uncovering Yield Parity: A New Insight into the UIP Puzzle through the Stationarity of Long Maturity Forward Rates

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    Results and models of this paper are based on a strikingly new empirical observation: long maturity forward rates between bilateral currency pairs of the US, Germany, UK, and Switzerland are stationary. Based on this result, we suggest a new explanation for the UIP-puzzle maintaining rational expectations and risk neutrality. The model builds on the interaction of foreign exchange and fixed income markets. Ex ante short run and long run UIP and the EHTS is assumed. We show that ex post shocks to the term structure could explain the behavior of the nominal exchange rate including its volatility and the failure of ex post short UIP regressions. We present evidence on ex post validity of long run UIP and strikingly new evidence on the stationarity of the long forward exchange rates of major currencies. We set up, calibrate and simulate a stylized model that well captures the observed properties of spot exchange rates and UIP regressions of major currencies. We define the notion of yield parity and test its empirical performance for monthly series of major currencies with favorable resultsEHTS, forward discount bias, stationarity of long maturity forward rates, UIP, yield parity

    A kötvény- és devizapiacok kölcsönhatásának szerepe a rugalmas devizaárfolyamok alakulásának értelmezésében = The role of the interaction between foreign exchange and fixed income markets in understanding exchange rate behavior

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    Kutatásaink három főbb vonalon hoztak eredményeket: 1) A devizapiac és a hozamgörbe várakozási hipotéziseinek együttes feltevéséből kiinduló elméleti megközelítésünkben rámutattunk, hogy a kötvény- és devizapiacok sokkjai között szimultán összefüggés valósul meg. Szimulációs vizsgálataink szerint a hozamgörbe hosszú végének sokkjai a gyakorlatban megfigyelt jelenségekkel összhangban transzformálódhatnak a devizaárfolyamok mozgásaiba. 2) Elméleti megközelítésünkkel összefüggésben felfedeztünk egy eddig nem vizsgált empirikus tényt: a vezető devizák határidős devizaárfolyamainak perzisztenciája a lejárat növelésével csökken. Hosszú (5-10 éves) lejáratoknál a stacionaritás lehetőségét sem vetik el a formális tesztek. 3) A hosszú lejáratú határidős devizaárfolyamok stacionaritását vélelmező hibakorrekciós modellek lehetővé teszik az azonnali árfolyamok mintán kívüli előrejelzését: a) 20 éves mintán kívüli előrejelzési időszakot vizsgáltunk havi frekvencián; b) Az amerikai dollár 9 legfontosabb árfolyamát vizsgáltuk (a devizapiac 75%-a!); c) A mintán kívüli előrejelzések szignifikanciáját bootstrap-teszttel ellenőriztük; d) Valamennyi esetben szignifkánsan jobb mintán kívüli előrejelzést adtunk, mint a benchmark martingál hipotézis (véletlen bolyongás), ill. az alternatív modellek. e) Bár eredményeink a világgazdasági válság 2008 őszi kirobbanását követően minimálisan romlottak, alapvető következtetéseink továbbra sem módosultak. | Our research has reached delivered new findings in the following three main topics: 1) Our model combining the expectation hypotheses of the FOREX market and the term structure of interest rates has revealed the interconnection of shocks to FOREX and fixed income markets. We showed that shocks to the term structure could explain the behaviour of the nominal exchange rate including its volatility and the failure of regressions to provide evidence in favour of the hypothesis of short horizon uncovered interest rate parity. 2) In connection to our theoretical model, we have discovered a strikingly new empirical observation: long maturity (e.g. 5/10 years) forward rates between major currencies are less persistent than spot exchanges rate and even many of them are found to be stationary by a large number of unit root and stationarity tests. 3) Our error correction models assuming that long-maturity forward rates are stationary provide extraordinary forecasting results. These models outperform the random walk (and many alternative models) in out-of-sample forecasting at forecasting horizons mostly above one year, for US dollar exchange rates against nine industrial countries? currencies, using a 20-year long period (1990-2009) for evaluating out-of-sample forecasts. The improvement in forecast accuracy of our models is economically significant for most of the exchange rate series and statistically significant according to a bootstrap test

    Handling heteroskedasticity in labour demand functions of athletes

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    Based on previous research it can be stated that modelling sport economics related demand curves (e.g. demand for sport events and athletes) is different from other types of modelling. The difference lies in the fact that some parts of the demand curves are nearly horizontal in case of sport goods and nearly vertical in case of athletes, because the price of sport events is inflexible and at the same time, salaries of top athletes are extremely flexible. This study investigates parameter estimation methods appropriate for the relevant demand functions of sport economics. In this cases the generally used ordinary least squares estimator is less robust, so the weighted least squares estimators are able to handle heteroskedasticity. If the distribution of the variables is known, the Newey-West heteroscedasticity corrected estimates give even stronger results. The empirical study analyses footballer transfer fees in top European leagues and identifies a threshold at which the traditional supply-demand functions are not appropriate. According to the results, word class athletes, in a way, can be considered prestige goods for which demand may be irrational

    The role of ENT surgeons in snoring assessment : some prospective preliminary evidence

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    Objectives: To determine (i) the prevalence of unsuspected upper aerodigestive tract disease in snorers, (ii) the diagnostic yield of routine flexible endoscopy and (iii) the relationship between symptoms of upper aerodigestive tract disease and examination findings in snorers. Design: Prospective analytical cohort study. Setting: Snoring clinic in Secondary Care Otolaryngologycentre. Participants: Ninety-three patients referred with disruptive snoring.Main outcome measures: A structured history ofupper aerodigestive tract symptoms was obtained byclinic interview. All patients underwent detailed ENTexamination. Univariate analysis was undertaken on data collected. Results: The prevalence of oropharyngeal and laryngealpathology in the cohort was 3%. No unsuspected upper aerodigestive tract pathology was found on routineflexible endoscopy. A history of Hard Nasal Symptoms was an accurate predictor of underlying nasal pathology. Conclusion: The authors propose that the detailed examination of snorers by ENT specialists is unnecessary in the absence of Hard Nasal Symptoms, hoarseness orpain. We propose that a system of triage based on patient history could help identify the minority of snorers who require specialist assessment

    Összetett indexek készítése új módon: a szûk keresztmetszetekért történõ büntetés módszere

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    Az elmúlt évtizedben jelentõsen nõtt a komplex mutatók, indexek népszerûsége, amelyek alkalmasak arra, hogy az összetett kategóriákat, fogalmakat egy számba sûrítve jelenítsék meg. Ez a tanulmány egy olyan új, az indexkészítés területén eddig nem alkalmazott módszert mutat be, amely képes az indexet alkotó változók közötti keresztkapcsolatok számszerûsítésére is. A szûk keresztmetszetekért történõ büntetés (PFB) abból indul ki, hogy egy rendszer mûködését alapvetõen a leggyengébb láncszem, a legalacsonyabb változóérték határozza meg. A magasabb értékû változók teljesítményét a szûk keresztmetszetek csökkentik, azaz az egyes változók között csupán korlátozott helyettesíthetõség áll fenn. A gazdaságpolitikai következtetés nyilvánvaló: a rendszer teljesítményét leginkább a szûk keresztmetszetek javítása, felszámolása révén lehet elérni. A módszer használatát a Globális Versenyképességi Index 2008-2009-es kiadványa alapján mutattuk be egy logaritmikus büntetõfüggvény alkalmazásának a segítségével.Index numbers, economic development

    Dinamikus egyensúly korlátozott változók között

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    STEREOTACTIC BRAIN BIOPSY: A REVIEW OF 15 CASES WITH OUTCOMES

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    Objectives: Despite improvements in the imaging techniques which aid pre-operative diagnosis, starting specific treatment requires confirmation by histopathological examination (HPE). However dilemma arises in deep seated lesions, lesions in eloquent areas, and lesion in a patient with a poor performance score for palliation/adjuvant therapy. The aim of this study is to determine the diagnostic accuracy and benefits of stereotactic biopsy (STB) in cases of clinical dilemma plus its effect on post-operative stay, morbidity and mortality, and overall management of patients. Methods: In this study, a prospective analysis of 15 patients who underwent STB in our hospital from September 2019 to July 2020 was made. The histopathological data derived from the STB, its clinical benefits, and post-operative hospital stay were analyzed. Results: In terms of histopathology, glial tumor (66.7%) was the most common lesion. The success of obtaining positive STB samples in our study was 100%. Average post-operative stay was 3 days. The clinical benefits were immense as seen in the varied presentations and clinical dilemma with which the patients presented and a how a safely sourced tissue for histopathological diagnosis by STB greatly altered the treatment of the patient. Conclusion: STB is a multifaceted tool in clinical practice. It can be used in diagnostic and therapeutic situations. Furthermore, in recurrent high-grade cases, it aids in providing HPE diagnosis for a more logical adjuvant treatment than one that follows an assumed diagnosis based on image findings/undergo a high-risk interventional procedure to get a specimen. It is a relatively safe procedure

    CONSERVATIVE MANAGEMENT OF ACUTE LUMBAR DISC HERNIATION WITH ASSOCIATED RADICULOPATHY: A STUDY

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    Objective: Acute disc herniation (DH) is a common cause of low back pain (LBP). It ranks fifth in the category of diseases in terms of cost of hospital care. It has higher indirect costs due to absenteeism from work and disability than any other disease. The present study was performed to assess the clinical outcomes of non-surgically treated LBP patients after 6 months of follow-up. Methods: The present study was prospective study which was performed on 450 lumbar radicular patients visiting the neurosurgery outpatient department having clinical signs and symptoms of acute lumbar DH of less than 3 month duration. Their diagnosis was confirmed by magnetic resonance imaging. The patients were treated conservatively during 6 months. Pain and disability were assessed by visual analog scale (VAS) and Oswestry disability questionnaire, respectively. Results: About 135 (30%) female and 315 (70%) male participated in the study. During the follow-up period, 27 (06%) patients (21 male and 6 female) showed poor response to conservative treatment and motor weakness and underwent surgical intervention. A significant improvement in the VAS Score was seen after 6 months of conservative treatment than initial evaluation of patients (3.12±1.84, 7.1±1.43, p=0.00). Furthermore, significant improvement in disability score of patients was seen in follow-up period (25.82±16.92, 53.66±17.66; p=0.00). Conclusion: Results of our study showed that conservative treatment in patients of acute lumbar DH have significant improvement in pain relief and disability without any notable side effect
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