Cointegration and the demand for gasoline

Since the early 1970s there has been a worldwide upsurge in the price of energy and in particular of gasoline. Therefore, demand functions for energy and its components like gasoline have received much attention. However, since confidence in the estimated demand functions is important for use in policy and forecasting, following Amarawickrama and Hunt (2008), this paper estimates the demand for gasoline is estimated with 6 alternative time series techniques with data from Fiji. Estimates with these 6 alternative techniques are very close and thus increase our confidence in them. We found that gasoline demand is both price and income inelastic

Testing Permanent Income Hypothesis for Fiji

Hall $(1978)$ has stimulated considerable controversy and empirical work on testing the validity of the permanent income hypothesis $(PIH)$. Much of this work is on the developed countries. In the developing countries incomes show larger fluctuations and for the majority opportunities for inter-temporal substitution are limited. This paper uses the extended framework of Campbell and Mankiw (1989) and finds that current consumption is determined by current income for more than two thirds of the consumers in Fiji.Consumption function, Developing countries, Fiji, Permanent income hypothesis, Hall's random walk hypothesis, Campbell-Mankiw tests.

Investment Ratio and Growth

In growth and development policy investment ratio is an important policy instrument. However, there is no well defined framework to determine what should be the investment ratio for a given growth target. This paper explains the potential of Solow (1956) and Solow (1957) to explain the relationship between the target growth rate and investment ratio. Hypothetical data are used for illustration.Investment ratio, Growth targets, Growth accounting, Total Factor Productivity, Neo classical growth model.

The Relationship Between Growth and Investment

This paper utilizes the growth accounting framework to derive and analyze the relationship between the rate of growth of output and the ratio of investment to output. With plausible parametric assumptions this framework is used to examine the recent controversy in Fiji on investment and growth. Our results support the concerns of some USP economists that a 5% growth rate for Fiji needs significantly higher investment rates and institutional reforms.Investment ratio, Growth targets, Growth accounting, Total Factor Productivity.

The Nature of the ADAS Model Based on the ISLM Model

The aggregate demand and supply model (ADAS) is interpreted as a synthesis of the Keynesian and neoclassical models. It uses the ISLM model, without explaining its nature, to derive aggregate demand (AD). It is combined with an aggregate supply (AS) curve to explain price- inflation and output dynamics. This paper argues that neither the AD nor AS curve is conceptually the same as its microeconomic counterpart and ADAS is not a synthesis. In fact ADASimplies that discretionary policy is necessary and that price changes do not perform their traditional negative feedback function.eynesian and neo classical models, aggregate demand and supply, monetary policy rule, price adjustments, stabilization policy

Cointegration and the demand for gasoline

Since the early 1970s there has been a worldwide upsurge in the price of energy and in particular of gasoline. Therefore, demand functions for energy and its components like gasoline have received much attention. However, since confidence in the estimated demand functions is important for use in policy and forecasting, following Amarawickrama and Hunt (2008), this paper estimates the demand for gasoline is estimated with 6 alternative time series techniques with data from Fiji. Estimates with these 6 alternative techniques are very close and thus increase our confidence in them. We found that gasoline demand is both price and income inelastic.Gasoline Demand, Income and price elasticities, Cointegration

ARE US GASOLINE PRICE ADJUSTMENTS ASYMMETRIC?

We use the LSE-Hendry general to specific approach to analyse if US gasoline price adjustments are asymmetric with respect to changes in crude oil prices. Furthermore, we modify some weaknesses in the earlier works by Boreinstein, Cameron and Gilbert (1997) and Bachmeier and Griffin (2003) and shows that if the price adjustment equations are properly specified and estimated, alternative specifications and temporal aggregation of data do not affect the results. Monthly US data are used to show that alternative specifications give equally good results and there is no asymmetry in the US gasoline price adjustments.Asymmetric price adjustments, Market power, General to specific approach, Error correction models and Gasoline and crude oil prices

Time series estimates of the US new Keynesian Phillips curve with structural breaks

This paper uses recent US data to estimate the new Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) with three modifications. Firstly, the variables in the NKPC are found to be nonstationary. Therefore, it is estimated with the time series methods and the cointegrating equations are tested for structural breaks. Secondly, inflationary expectations are proxied with the survey data. Thirdly, unlike in the hybrid NKPC, the effects of the lagged inflation rates are introduced into the dynamic adjustment equations. This offers an opportunity to estimate these dynamic effects with a more general specification instead of the restricted partial adjustment mechanism underlying the hybrid NKPC. Our NKPC, with these changes, is consistent with its underlying micro foundations and forward looking expectations. The results of our NKPC can explain the dynamics of the US inflation rate as well as any other alternative model.US New Keynesian Phillips Curve, Forward looking expectations, Survey data, Wage share, Cointegration

Demand for Money in India: 1953-2003

The demand for money, especially in the developing countries, is an important relationship for formulating appropriate monetary policy and targeting monetary variables. In this paper we estimate the demand for narrow money in India and evaluate its robustness. It is found that there is a stable demand for money for almost half a century from 1953 to 2003. There is no evidence for any significant effects of the $1991$ financial reforms.Demand for money, Developing countries, Income and interest rate elasticities, Cointegration, Financial reforms.

Estimates of the long-run growth rate of Singapore with a CES production function

This paper estimates with the Bayesian methods a CES production function for Singapore for 1960-2009. It is found that the elasticity of substitution is 0.6, technical progress is labour augmenting and the steady state growth rate of Singapore is about 1.8%.Bayesian methods, CES production function and Technical progress