Soft systems methodology: a context within a 50-year retrospective of OR/MS

Soft systems methodology (SSM) has been used in the practice of operations research and management science OR/MS) since the early 1970s. In the 1990s, it emerged as a viable academic discipline. Unfortunately, its proponents consider SSM and traditional systems thinking to be mutually exclusive. Despite the differences claimed by SSM proponents between the two, they have been complementary. An extensive sampling of the OR/MS literature over its entire lifetime demonstrates the richness with which the non-SSM literature has been addressing the very same issues as does SSM

Euro stories: The Irish experience of currency change

This paper presents an overview of an interview study carried out in the Republic of Ireland approximately one year after the introduction of the euro in January 2002, and also compares the Irish experience to that of the other initial Eurozone countries. The new currency seems to have been rather more positively received in Ireland than elsewhere. Irish adults had a generally more positive attitude towards the new currency and seemed to have adapted to it rather well. Nevertheless, they shared some common experiences and problems with citizens of other countries, such as the perception that the introduction of the euro raised inflation more than it actually did, confusion of notes and coins, and the use of coping strategies involving price conversion to the former currency. The implications of the Irish experience for policy are discussed

Bayesian updating of atmospheric dispersion after a nuclear accident

We consider a Bayesian forecasting system to predict the dispersal of contamination on a large scale grid in the event of an accidental release of radioactivity. The statistical model is built on a physical model for atmospheric dispersion and transport called MATCH. Our spatiotemporal model is a dynamic linear model where the state parameters are the (essentially, deterministic) predictions of MATCH; the distributions of these are updated sequentially in the light of monitoring data. One of the distinguishing features of the model is that the number of these parameters is very large (typically several hundreds of thousands) and we discuss practical issues arising in its implementation as a realtime model. Our procedures have been checked against a variational approach which is used widely in the atmospheric sciences. The results of the model are applied to test data from a tracer experiment. Copyright 2004 Royal Statistical Society.