Bayesian mapping of pulmonary tuberculosis in Antananarivo, Madagascar

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Tuberculosis (TB), an infectious disease caused by the <it>Mycobacterium tuberculosis </it>is endemic in Madagascar. The capital, Antananarivo is the most seriously affected area. TB had a non-random spatial distribution in this setting, with clustering in the poorer areas. The aim of this study was to explore this pattern further by a Bayesian approach, and to measure the associations between the spatial variation of TB risk and national control program indicators for all neighbourhoods.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Combination of a Bayesian approach and a generalized linear mixed model (GLMM) was developed to produce smooth risk maps of TB and to model relationships between TB new cases and national TB control program indicators. The TB new cases were collected from records of the 16 Tuberculosis Diagnostic and Treatment Centres (DTC) of the city from 2004 to 2006. And five TB indicators were considered in the analysis: number of cases undergoing retreatment, number of patients with treatment failure and those suffering relapse after the completion of treatment, number of households with more than one case, number of patients lost to follow-up, and proximity to a DTC.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>In Antananarivo, 43.23% of the neighbourhoods had a standardized incidence ratio (SIR) above 1, of which 19.28% with a TB risk significantly higher than the average. Identified high TB risk areas were clustered and the distribution of TB was found to be associated mainly with the number of patients lost to follow-up (SIR: 1.10, CI 95%: 1.02-1.19) and the number of households with more than one case (SIR: 1.13, CI 95%: 1.03-1.24).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The spatial pattern of TB in Antananarivo and the contribution of national control program indicators to this pattern highlight the importance of the data recorded in the TB registry and the use of spatial approaches for assessing the epidemiological situation for TB. Including these variables into the model increases the reproducibility, as these data are already available for individual DTCs. These findings may also be useful for guiding decisions related to disease control strategies.</p

Geographical and environmental approaches to urban malaria in Antananarivo (Madagascar)

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Previous studies, conducted in the urban of Antananarivo, showed low rate of confirmed malaria cases. We used a geographical and environmental approach to investigate the contribution of environmental factors to urban malaria in Antananarivo.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Remote sensing data were used to locate rice fields, which were considered to be the principal mosquito breeding sites. We carried out supervised classification by the maximum likelihood method. Entomological study allowed vector species determination from collected larval and adult mosquitoes. Mosquito infectivity was studied, to assess the risk of transmission, and the type of mosquito breeding site was determined. Epidemiological data were collected from November 2006 to December 2007, from public health centres, to determine malaria incidence. Polymerase chain reaction was carried out on dried blood spots from patients, to detect cases of malaria. Rapid diagnostic tests were used to confirm malaria cases among febrile school children in a school survey.</p> <p>A geographical information system was constructed for data integration. Altitude, temperature, rainfall, population density and rice field surface area were analysed and the effects of these factors on the occurrence of confirmed malaria cases were studied.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Polymerase chain reaction confirmed malaria in 5.1% of the presumed cases. Entomological studies showed <it>An. arabiensis </it>as potential vector. Rice fields remained to be the principal breeding sites. Travel report was considered as related to the occurrence of <it>P. falciparum </it>malaria cases.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Geographical and environmental factors did not show direct relationship with malaria incidence but they seem ensuring suitability of vector development. Absence of relationship may be due to a lack of statistical power. Despite the presence of <it>An. arabiensis</it>, scarce parasitic reservoir and rapid access to health care do not constitute optimal conditions to a threatening malaria transmission. However, imported malaria case is suggestive to sustain the pocket transmission in Antananarivo.</p

An open-label, randomized, non-inferiority trial of the efficacy and safety of ciprofloxacin versus streptomycin + ciprofloxacin in the treatment of bubonic plague (IMASOY): study protocol for a randomized control trial

Background Bubonic plague is the primary manifestation of infection with Yersinia pestis, accounting for 90% of all plague cases and with 75% of global cases reported in Madagascar. All drugs in use for treating plague are registered based on experimental data and anecdotal evidence, and no regimen currently recommended is supported by a randomized clinical trial. The IMASOY trial intends to fill this knowledge gap by comparing two 10-day regimens included in the national guidelines in Madagascar. The primary objective of the trial is to test the hypothesis that ciprofloxacin monotherapy is non-inferior to streptomycin followed by ciprofloxacin for the treatment of bubonic plague, thus avoiding the need for injectable, potentially toxic, aminoglycosides. Methods A two-arm parallel-group randomized control trial will be conducted across peripheral health centres in Madagascar in five districts. Males and non-pregnant females of all ages with suspected bubonic or pneumonic plague will be recruited over the course of three plague ‘seasons’. The primary endpoint of the trial is to assess the proportion of patients with bubonic plague who have a therapeutic response to treatment (defined as alive, resolution of fever, 25% reduction in the size of measurable buboes, has not received an alternative treatment and no clinical decision to continue antibiotics) as assessed on day 11. Discussion If successful, the trial has the potential to inform the standard of care guidelines not just in Madagascar but in other countries afflicted by plague. The trial is currently ongoing and expected to complete recruitment in 2022. Trial registration ClinicalTrials.gov NCT04110340. Registered on 1 October 2019</p