Canby School District: Enrollment Forecast Update 2012-13 to 2021-22

The Population Research Center (PRC) has prepared district‐wide and individual school Enrollment Forecasts for the Canby School District (CSD) annually for the past six years. This study includes forecasts of district‐wide enrollment for the 10 years from 2012‐13 to 2021‐22 and forecasts for individual schools for the five years from 2012‐13 to 2016‐17. The 10 year horizon of the district‐wide forecast enhances opportunities for school districts to coordinate long range planning with city and county comprehensive plans, which may extend for 20 or more years. Overall K‐12 enrollment is forecast to increase by 364 students (8 percent) in the next 10 years. K‐12 enrollment loss of three students (0.1 percent) is forecast for 2012‐13 and only moderate growth, averaging 0.8 percent, is forecast for the remaining nine years of the forecast. K‐6 enrollments begin to grow gradually after 2012‐13, but grades 7‐8 enrollments remain flat or decline until 2017‐18, begin to grow in between 2017‐18 and 2019‐20, and decline slightly in the last two years of the forecast horizon. High school enrollment changes very little throughout the 10 year forecast period

Eagle Point School District Enrollment Forecasts 2014-15 to 2023-24

This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center. The study includes analyses of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the Eagle Point School District (EPSD) in recent years, forecasts of district‐wide enrollment by grade level and total enrollment of individual schools for the 2014‐ 15 to 2023‐24 school years

David Douglas School District Enrollment Forecasts 2014-15 to 2033-34

This report presents the results of a demographic study conducted by the Portland State University Population Research Center (PRC) for the David Douglas School District (DDSD). The study includes analysis of population, housing and enrollment trends affecting the District in recent years, estimates of the impacts of housing development on DDSD enrollment, and forecasts of district‐wide and individual school enrollments for the 2014‐15 to 2033‐34 school years

MCTS/EA hybrid GVGAI players and game difficulty estimation

© 2016 IEEE. In the General Video Game Playing competitions of the last years, Monte-Carlo tree search as well as Evolutionary Algorithm based controllers have been successful. However, both approaches have certain weaknesses, suggesting that certain hybrids could outperform both. We envision and experimentally compare several types of hybrids of two basic approaches, as well as some possible extensions. In order to achieve a better understanding of the games in the competition and the strength and weaknesses of different controllers, we also propose and apply a novel game difficulty estimation scheme based on several observable game characteristics

Coordinated Population Forecast for Malheur County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2019-2069

Different parts of the County experience different growth patterns. Local trends within UGBs and the area outside them collectively influence population growth rates for the County as a whole. UGBs in Malheur County include Adrian, Jordan Valley, Nyssa, Ontario, and Vale. Malheur County’s total population declined slightly in the 2000s; however, some of its sub-areas experienced minor population growth during this period. The population growth that did occur in Malheur County in the 2000s was largely the result of natural increase (more deaths than births). An aging population not only led to an increase in deaths but also resulted in a smaller proportion of women in their childbearing years. This, along with more women having fewer children and having them at older ages has led to births stagnating in recent years. A larger number of births relative to deaths caused a natural increase) in every year from 2001 to 2017, though natural increase waned throughout this period, resulting in minimal population change. Total population in Malheur County as a whole, as well as within its sub-areas, will likely decrease at a similar pace in the near-term (2019 to 2044) compared to the long-term. Population decline is a product of net out-migration outpacing natural increase. Malheur County’s total population is forecast to decline by 655 people over the next 25 years (2019-2044) and by roughly 1,620 people over the entire 50-year period (2019-2069)

Coordinated Population Forecast for Union County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2019-2069

Different parts of the County experience different growth patterns. Local trends within UGBs and the area outside them collectively influence population growth rates for the County as a whole. UGBs in Union County include Cove, Elgin, Imbler, Island City, La Grande, North Powder, Summerville, and the city of Union. Union County’s total population grew steadily in the 2000s; however, some of its smaller sub-areas experienced faster population growth during this period. Summerville, for example, posted the highest average annual growth rates at 1.4 percent during the 2000 to 2010 period. The population growth in the 2000s was the result of both net in-migration and natural increase. An aging population not only led to a slight increase in deaths but also resulted in a smaller proportion of women in their childbearing years. This, along with more women having fewer children and having them at older ages has led to births stagnating in recent years. Still, a larger number of births relative to deaths caused a natural increase (more births than deaths) in every year from 2001 to 2017. A waning natural increase combined with sporadic net in-migration has led to slow population growth in the 2000s. Total population in Union County as a whole, as well as within its sub-areas, will likely increase at a quicker pace in the near-term (2019 to 2044) compared to the long-term. Slower growth is largely driven by a growing natural decrease that cuts into net in-migration throughout the forecast period. Union County’s total population is forecast to grow by roughly 1,300 people over the next 25 years (2019-2044) and by roughly 2,270 over the entire 50-year period (2019-2069)

Coordinated Population Forecast for Wheeler County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2019-2069

Different parts of the County experience different growth patterns. Local trends within UGBs and the area outside them collectively influence population growth rates for the County as a whole. UGBs in Wheeler County include Fossil, Mitchell, and Spray. Wheeler County’s total population had minimal decline in the 2000s. However, some of its sub-areas did experience population growth during this period. Spray, for example, grew 1.6 percent on average annually during the 2000 to 2010 period. The population decline in the 2000s stemmed from consistent natural decrease and stretches of net out-migration. An aging population not only led to an increase in deaths but also resulted in a smaller proportion of women in their childbearing years. This, along with more women having fewer children and having them at older ages has led to births stagnating in recent years. A larger number of deaths relative to births caused a natural decrease (more deaths than births) most years from 2001 to 2017, resulting in minimal population change. Total population in Wheeler County will likely continue to decline but at a progressively slower pace throughout the forecast period. Population decline is largely driven by an aging population and natural decrease outpacing net in-migration. Wheeler County’s total population is forecast to decline by roughly 125 people over the next 25 years (2019-2044) and by 200 over the entire 50-year period (2019-2069)

Coordinated Population Forecast for Grant County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2019-2069

Different parts of the County experience different growth patterns. Local trends within UGBs and the area outside them collectively influence population growth rates for the County as a whole. Grant County’s sub-areas include Canyon City, Dayville, Granite, John Day, Long Creek, Monument, Mount Vernon, Prairie City, and Seneca. Grant County’s total population declined slightly in the 2000s; however, some of its sub-areas experienced faster population growth during this period. Canyon City, Dayville, and Granite, for example, posted positive average annual growth rates during the 2000 to 2010 period. The sporadic population growth that did occur in Grant County in the 2000s was largely the result of net in-migration. An aging population not only led to an increase in deaths but also resulted in a smaller proportion of women in their childbearing years. This, along with more women having fewer children and having them at older ages has led to births stagnating in recent years. A larger number of deaths relative to births caused a natural decrease (more deaths than births) in every year from 2001 to 2017, resulting in steady population decline. Total population in Grant County as a whole, as well as within its sub-areas, will likely decrease at a slightly faster pace in the near-term (2019 to 2044) than the long-term (2044-2069). Population decline is largely driven by an aging population and natural decrease outpacing net in-migration. Grant County’s total population is forecast to decline by roughly 605 people over the next 25 years (2019-2044) and by more than 1,030 over the entire 50-year period (2019-2069)

Coordinated Population Forecast for Lane County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2019-2069

Different parts of the County experience different growth patterns. Local trends within UGBs and the area outside them collectively influence population growth rates for the County as a whole. UGBs in Lane County include Cottage Grove, Eugene, Florence, Springfield, Coburg, Creswell, Dunes City, Junction City, Lowell, Oakridge, Veneta, and Westfir. Lane County’s total population had minimal growth in the 2000s. However, population growth occurred at different rates across the County as some of the sub-areas experienced faster growth while others declined in population during this period. The population growth that did occur in Lane County in the 2000s was largely the result of net in-migration. An aging population not only led to an increase in deaths but also resulted in a smaller proportion of women in their childbearing years. This, along with more women having fewer children and having them at older ages led to stagnating birth rates and a natural decrease (more deaths than births) in 2017 for the first time since the turn of the century. Though net in-migration has fluctuated with business cycles, it has been high in recent years (2013-17), leading to strong population growth. Total population in Lane County as a whole, as well as within its sub-areas, will likely continue to grow at a similar rate as it has between 2010 and 2019. The County population growth is entirely driven by net in-migration as an aging population and stagnating birth rates are likely to lead to greater rates of natural decrease. Lane County’s total population is forecast to grow by roughly 55,000 people over the next 25 years (2019-2044) and by nearly 110,000 over the entire 50-year period (2019-2069)

Coordinated Population Forecast for Baker County, its Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB), and Area Outside UGBs 2019-2069

Different parts of the County experience different growth patterns. Local trends within UGBs and the area outside them collectively influence population growth rates for the County as a whole. UGBs in Baker County include Baker City, Greenhorn, Haines, Halfway, Huntington, Richland, Sumpter, and Unity. Baker County’s total population declined slightly in the 2000s; however, some of its sub-areas experienced faster population decline during this period, while others experienced growth. Richland, for example, posted the highest average annual growth rate at 2 percent during the 2000 to 2010 period, while Unity posted the lowest average annual growth rate of -5.9 percent. The population growth that did occur in Baker County in the 2000s was largely the result of net in-migration. An aging population not only led to an increase in deaths but also resulted in a smaller proportion of women in their childbearing years. This, along with more women having fewer children and having them at older ages has led to births stagnating in recent years. A larger number of deaths relative to births caused a natural decrease (more deaths than births) in every year from 2001 to 2017, resulting in minimal population change. Total population in Baker County as a whole, as well as within its sub-areas, will likely decrease at a slightly quicker pace in the near-term (2019 to 2044) compared to the long-term (Figure 1). Population decline is largely driven by an aging population and natural decrease outpacing net in-migration. Baker County’s total population is forecast to decline by roughly 700 people over the next 25 years (2019-2044) and by 1,160 over the entire 50-year period (2019-2069)