Expectational Bottlenecks and the Emerging of New Organizational Forms

In this article we discuss the dynamics of organizational change when agents have heterogeneous initial conjectures and do learn. In this framework, conjectural equilibrium is defined as a steady state of the learning process, and all the adjustment occurs in disequilibrium. We discuss the properties of the system under different “rationality” assumptions, and using well-known learning algorithms. We prove analytically that multiplicity of equilibria, and failure of good organizational routines, cannot be ruled out: better, they are fairly probable. Stability is a crucial matter: it is shown to depend on initial conjectures. Finally, learning does not necessarily select the best.

Quality Risk Aversion, Conjectures, and New Product Diffusion

In this paper we provide a generalization of the standard models of the diffusion of a new product. Consumers are heterogeneous and risk averse, and the firm is uncertain about the demand curve: both learn from past observations. The attitude towards risk has important effects with regard to the diffusion pattern. In our model, downward-biased signals to consumers can prevent the success of the product, even if its objective quality is high: a “lock-in” result. We show in addition that the standard logistic pattern can be derived from the model. Finally, we discuss the asymptotic behavior of the learning dynamics, with regard to the multiplicity and the stability of equilibria, and to their welfare properties.Heterogeneity, Multiple equilibria, Lock-in, Product diffusion, Risk aversion.

The impact of technology and structural change on export performance on nine developing coutries

This paper explores the relationship between techonological activity and export performance between 1985 and 1998 for nine large developing countries and twenty-five primary and secondary sectors. We use a structural decomposition analysis to show that developing countries tend to concentrate their innovative activities in industries which are technologically stagnant at the world level throughout the period considered. These international trends partly offset generalized national improvements in terms of patent shares. The same occurs for world export shares although countries display a greater adaptation to world demand. The econometric analysis shows that technological activity generates export gains, in high technology sectors if a country expands its innovative activities in industries with increasing levels of technological opportunities; in medium technology moving out of low opportunity sectors; in low technology if it is specialized, in the initial year, in sectors with a large world share growth. We also show that in high tech industries export performance is affected by the technical skills at the initial year; in medium and low tech sectors by the growth rates of, respectively, R&D and foreign direct investments. Country and sectoral specifities affect the relationship between technology and market shares dynamics, and structural changes in terms of innovative activity are a major channel through which tecnological capabilities are translated into export performance.innovation, technical change, exports, development

Monitoring economic partnership agreements: inputs to the negotiations and beyond

"The upcoming Economic Partnership Agreements (EPAs) between the European Union and African, Caribbean and Pacific (ACP) countries and regions are extremely challenging. Conceived as a follow-up to the non-reciprocal trade preferences granted to the ACP since 1975, the aim of the EPAs is sustainable development and poverty reduction through the establishment of a Free Trade Area. Many challenges and opportunities arise from this ambitious trade and development partnership between some of the world's poorest and richest countries. Throughout the negotiations, several stakeholders have expressed concerns about the possible negative effects in ACP countries that risk jeopardizing the developmental impacts of EPAs. The ambition, as well as the uncertainties around EPAs make a results-oriented monitoring of the agreements imperative. This study, commissioned by the German Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development, addresses the possible goals of EPA monitoring, drawing conclusions on what broad areas need to be monitored, which principles should be followed and which stakeholders involved. The study then outlines the challenges involved in implementing a results-oriented monitoring system: which steps need to be taken, how best to derive indicators, which characteristics the latter should have and how they may be identified. The study also presents a number of recommendations on how to ensure that monitoring is given due consideration in the EPA legal texts." (author's abstract

Priorities for Africa's food and nutrition security post-covid-19. A contribution from the Task Force Rural Africa (TFRA) to the AU-EU Summit, October 2020

A deep sense of concern about the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the lives and livelihoods of Africa’s people has inspired the writing of this contribution. As members of the Task Force Rural Africa (TFRA), we produced a report in March 2019 on what we thought was needed to transform Africa’s agriculture and rural economy. Less than one year later, COVID-19 struck Africa and the rest of the world with devastating effect. Another important change since March 2019 has been the shift on climate policy, represented by the EU Commission proposal in December 2019 of the European Green Deal (EGD). This ambitious vision, aimed at making Europe the first climate-neutral continent by 2050, will have implications for Africa – Europe relations. The combination of COVID-19’s impact on Africa and the EU’s climate policy change has led us to re-examine the analysis and the recommendations in our original report. We have drawn one central conclusion from our work: that food and nutrition security has become of such fundamental political, economic and social importance that it must be at the centre of all future policy and planning. We have built our report on this conclusion and produced a set of short and long-term recommendations we believe are relevant to the new world shaped by the COVID-19 pandemic. We hope our contribution may help in the preparation of the AU-EU Summit in October 2020. The Summit will seek to agree the long-term basis for partnership between Africa and the EU. It will meet at a crucially important time, shortly before the US Presidential election, when the world will be looking to see how Africa and Europe, separately and in partnership, can contribute to an effective multilateral response to global challenges and the current COVID-19 crisis. We wish the leaders well in their efforts

Expectational Bottlenecks and the Emerging of New Organizational Forms

In this article we discuss the dynamics of organizational change when agents have heterogeneous initial conjectures and do learn. In this framework, conjectural equilibrium is defined as a steady state of the learning process, and all the adjustment occurs in disequilibrium. We discuss the properties of the system under different “rationality” assumptions, and using well-known learning algorithms. We prove analytically that multiplicity of equilibria, and failure of good organizational routines, cannot be ruled out: better, they are fairly probable. Stability is a crucial matter: it is shown to depend on initial conjectures. Finally, learning does not necessarily select the best