LONGRUN TRENDS IN NEW ZEALAND INDUSTRY ASSISTANCE

New Zealand has had a complex process of adjusting commercial policy since the economic reforms began in 1984. This paper reports on the results of a research project to estimate the trends in industry assistance over this period and the variance of assistance within 2- digit industry groupings.commercial policy, industry assistance, tariffs, New Zealand

Scoping the History of Economics in New Zealand

Environmental Economics and Policy, Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies,

Business failure and change: an Australian perspective

„h Contrary to common perceptions, most Australian businesses survive for a considerable time ¡V for example, around two¡Vthirds of businesses are still operating after five years and almost one¡Vhalf are still operating after ten years. „h Around 7.5 per cent of businesses exit each year ¡V cessations account for around 80 per cent of exits (changes in ownership account for the remainder) ¡V but most exits are not firm failures. „h Each year, cessations account for, at most, between 9¡V10 per cent of total job losses and 3¡V4 per cent of GDP ¡V however, in net terms, these impacts are outweighed by the corresponding gains from new business start¡Vups. „h Less than 0.5 per cent of businesses exit each year due to ¡¥catastrophic¡¦ failure (bankruptcy or liquidation). The failure rate has fallen significantly in the past decade ¡V the estimated failure rate was 3.6 failures per 1000 enterprises in 1999-00, one¡Vthird of the rate in 1991-92 ¡V the decline is attributable to fewer company liquidations, rather than any fall off in unincorporated business bankruptcies.business failure - small business - business exits - business survival - insolvency - liquidation - bankcruptcy

Farmlands Grain (N.Z.) Society Ltd : a marketing audit, 1980-84

On July 31, 1985, Farmlands Grain New Zealand Society Ltd engaged the Agricultural Economics Research Unit at Lincoln College to conduct an audit of the marketing and administrative performance of the Society for the four pool years, 1981-85 inclusive. The AERU was given full access to all records of the Society. Given the growth of the Society, a number of its operational systems are continuing to evolve rapidly. Some suggestions made in this report are already being adopted. Other suggestions and criticisms need to be viewed in the context of this rapidly evolving organisation. It was wise and indeed fortunate to establish the South Island Barley Society Ltd in the Spring of 1980. This buoyant period of world market demand for coarse grains from non traditional sources enabled the Society to establish itself firmly in the market. Since that time, the Society has continued to perform at a very high level in a volatile external operating environment, both at home and overseas. The Society has managed its grain marketing operations energetically with a high degree of effort in export marketing. The Society has established a major new New Zealand export product (Triumph Malting Barley). This achievement may be one of the greatest export marketing efforts of the last five years. The risk management procedures of the Society have been prudent and operated in a measured, systematic fashion. This has resulted in significantly higher pool returns to farmer clients over the four year period 1981-85. There is every indication that the Society can maintain and even enhance its market leadership position in the future. There is of course, room for some improvement in certain areas. The reporting of management and marketing performance to clients (current and potential) is weak. In one sense the high performance level of the Society has been obvious through pool returns but until very recently, little appears to have been done to explain the source of this performance. It is recommended that the Society produce a management report each year to complement the financial reporting system. With the rapid developments in financial markets and policy changes in New Zealand, risk management may require increased attention in the future. Increased attention may need to be devoted to establishing longer term marketing arrangements and early sales in the August-November period. Furthermore, a daily system of monitoring the exposure of each pool (and the Society overall) to price, currency and farm contract risk is required for operational purposes. This comment need not be interpreted as a criticism of past performance because most export enterprises are in the same position in New Zealand as a result of the changed exchange rate policy, the opening of futures markets and the removal of a wide array of financial regulations

New Zealand’s trading future with Asia

New Zealanders have had a close relationship with Asia since World War 2 almost without realising that we had a close relationship. Japan was one of the first countries to grant us visa free access. In the 1950’s and 60’s we had important connections with Singapore, Malaysia, Korea, Thailand and with Vietnam and Rewi Alley did us proud in China. Nevertheless, many New Zealanders perhaps don’t see New Zealand as part of Asia. In many ways we are not. Buenos Aires and Los Angeles are almost as close by plane as Singapore, Bangkok, Hong Kong or Tokyo. Our heritage and culture is largely Pacific and British. But we are affiliated with Asia in ways that we are not yet affiliated with South America and we are involved in Asia in ways that we used to be (and are not now) involved in the UK. Bryce Harland puts this down to a statement that the Australia diplomat Dick Woolcott once made that when it comes to Asia, we are the “odd man in” (Harland, 1997). This paper attempts to summarise the mutuality of interest of Asia and New Zealand and to assess the likelihood that the bilateral and regional relationships can be managed to reap the potential gains that are available. New Zealand’s interests are very broad because we are so tiny in land mass and population terms and Asia is a natural focus for international trade as well as being an important link to the Middle East and Europe. Asia encompasses a wide variety of countries from Eastern Russia to Bangladesh, from one of the highest income per capita countries in the world (Japan) to some of the lowest (Vietnam and Bangladesh), from democratic to relatively autocratic styles of government, from countries which are very open to trade to countries which are highly protectionist, from comparative advantages in manufacturing to comparative advantages in agriculture. There are two sets of questions. First, why is Asia important to us and second, what do we have to contribute to Asia

Fragmenting markets and quality change in New Zealand foods: empirical analysis with a Rotterdam model

Very little is known about changes in the demand characteristics of food in New Zealand. As far as we can determine, there has never been a complete disaggregated food demand model estimated for New Zealand. The object of this paper is to update these estimates using more recent data to see whether there are grounds for believing that the structural changes that occurred primarily during the last two decades are having effects on the magnitude of food demand elasticities in New Zealand. To this end, a Rotterdam food demand system is estimated using time series data. The results indicate that over the last 20 years, household consumption has increased for fruit and vegetables, poultry, food eaten away from home, and sweet products, drinks and other foods. Fish, poultry, meat, farm products, cereals and meals away from home are all more price elastic than earlier estimates.consumer behaviour, food demand, agricultural and food policy, Rotterdam model, food quality, New Zealand, Agricultural and Food Policy, Consumer/Household Economics, Demand and Price Analysis,

Recent trends in Australian fertility

Births in Australia are at an historical high – with around 285 000 babies born in 2007. This corresponds to an estimated total fertility rate of 1.93 babies per woman, the highest since the early 1980s. This is not a one-off event as fertility rates have been generally rising for the last 6 years. Overall, the evidence suggests that after its long downward trend after the Second World War, Australia\u27s fertility rate may have stabilised at around 1.75 to 1.9 babies per woman. Much of the recent increase in the fertility rate is likely to reflect the fact that over the last few decades, younger women postponed childbearing and many are now having these postponed babies (so-called \u27recuperation\u27). This has shown up as higher fertility rates for older women. However, some of the increase is also likely to be due to a \u27quantum\u27 effect – an increase in the number of babies women will ultimately have over their lifetimes. For example, today\u27s young women say they are expecting to have more babies over their lifetime than those five years ago. Rising fertility reflects several factors: • Buoyant economic conditions and greater access to part-time jobs have reduced the financial risks associated with childbearing and lowered the costs associated with exiting and re-entering the labour market. • With more flexible work arrangements, women today are more able to combine participation in the labour force with childrearing roles. • A recent increase in the generosity of family benefits (such as family tax benefit A and the \u27baby bonus\u27), though not targeted at fertility, is also likely to have played a part. However, that role has probably only been a modest one. Family policies are more powerful in providing income support, improving child and parental welfare, and serving other social goals than in affecting fertility rates. Overall, Australia appears to be in a \u27safe zone\u27 of fertility, despite fertility levels being below replacement levels. There is no fertility crisis. Australia\u27s population should continue to grow at one of the highest rates in the developed world because of migrant inflows. Feasibly attainable increases in fertility would not significantly allay ageing of the population, nor address its fiscal and labour market challenges

Statistical analysis of the use and impact of government business programs

This paper uses statistical evidence from a unique longitudinal data set for Australian firms to examine the use and impact of some major R&D and export facilitation programs from 1994-98. The programs examined included the EMDG (Export Market Development Grants) scheme, Export Access, Austrade services, ITES (International Trade Enhancement Scheme) (now discontinued), the R&D tax concession and R&D grants. The paper examines the attributes of firms that participate in government business programs, their patterns of use and the effects these programs have on their performance.government business programs - business longitudinal survey - export programs - ITES - EMDG - R&D

Distortions to Agricultural Incentives in Australia and New Zealand

In 1990, Australia and New Zealand were ranked around 25th and 35th in terms of GNP per capita, having been the highest-income countries in the world one hundred years earlier. The poor performance over that long period contrasts markedly with that of the past 15 years, when these two economies out-performed most other high-income countries. This difference in growth performance is due to major economic policy reforms during the past two to three decades. We provide new evidence on the extent of governmental distortions to agricultural incentives in particular in the two economies since the late 1940s, both directly and indirectly (and negatively) via manufacturing protection.Distorted incentives, agricultural and trade policy reform, Agricultural and Food Policy, F13, F14, Q17, Q18,