(Why) Do Self-Employed Parents Have More Children?

We provide a theory whereby non-benevolent, self-employed households increase their expected family size to raise the likelihood that an inside family member will be a good match at running the business. Hence, having larger family sizes raises the self-employed household’s expected return to their business. Using data from the General Social Survey, we find that respondents have approximately .2 to .4 more actual and expected number of children if they are self-employed as compared to if they are not self-employed. This empirical relationship is established across a broad array of sub-samples using a simple differences in means test. As well, the empirical relationship holds using a regression framework, including the use of instrumental variables estimation to allow for the possibility of endogeneity of the respondent’s self-employment status and whether the respondent’s spouse stays at home.self-employed, children, familiy business, matching

Do Worker Remittances Reduce Output Volatility in Developing Countries?

Remittance inflows have increased considerably in recent years and are large relative to the size of many recipient economies. The theoretical and empirical effects of remittance inflows on output growth volatility are, however, ambiguous. On the one hand, remittances have been a remarkably stable source of income, relative to other private and public flows, and they seem to be compensatory in nature, rising when the home countryÂ’s economy suffers a downturn. On the other hand, the labor supply effects induced by altruistic remittances could cause the output effects associated with technology shocks to be magnified. This paper finds robust evidence for a sample of 70 remittance-recipient countries, including 16 advanced economies and 54 developing countries that remittances have a negative effect on output growth volatility, thereby supporting the notion that remittance flows are a stabilizing influence on output.Remittances, output volatility, developing countries

For Better or For Worse? State Level Marital Formation and Risk Sharing

Why do some U.S. states have higher levels of marital formation than others? This paper introduces an economic model wherein a state's representative individual may choose to marry in order to diversify his or her idiosyncratic income risk. The paper demonstrates that such a diversification motive is enhanced for some utility functions when a state's level of undiversifiable risk becomes larger, and when a state's initial income and growth rate is lower. A test of the model's predictions, using cross-sectional data for the 50 U.S. states, suggests that there is broad support for a risk sharing motive for marriage as well as a precautionary attitude towards risk.Consumption Insurance; Marriage

For Better or For Worse? State-Level Marital Formation and Risk Sharing

Why do some U.S. states have higher levels of marital formation than others? This paper introduces an economic model wherin a state’s representative individual may choose to marry in order to diversify his or her idiosyncratic income risk. The paper demonstrates that such a diversification motive is enhanced for some utility functions when a state’s level of undiversifiable risk becomes larger, and when a state’s initial income and growth rate is lower. A test of the model’s predictions, using cross-sectional data for the 50 U.S. states, suggests that there is broad support for a risk sharing motive for marriage as well as for a precautionary savings motive.consumption insurance, marriage

Natures Solution to Climate Change

A strategy to protect whales can limit greenhouse gases and global warmin

Capital trading, stock trading, and the inflation tax on equity: a note

The authors show that there is more responsiveness of consumption and output to changes in the money supply than exists in the standard neoclassical growth models.Capital investments

A Template for Analyzing and Projecting Labor Market Indicators

This note is a reference guide for the unemployment template, an econometric tool that allows researchers to analyze and project labor market indicators for any country with sufficient data coverage. Section I explains the motivation behind designing a new surveillance tool to study labor markets, and summarizes the key features of the template. Section II details the data inputs needed and their sources. Section III describes the methods used to estimate the employment-growth elasticity, a measure of the extent to which employment responds to output. Section IV outlines the medium-term outlook table and projection charts created by the template once the inputs are customized to generate an appropriate elasticity. Finally, Section V presents a discussion of how to interpret the results produced by the template, and of the issues that arise from projecting labor market indicators

The price is not right

The 2015 Paris Agreement requires all nations to combat climate change and to adapt to its effects. Countries promise to reduce their greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions through their Nationally Determined Contributions. Pledges to reduce emissions, however, have implications for economic growth. We estimate the link between economic growth and CO2 pollution levels and find that this relationship is highly non-linear. A country's GHG emissions rise rapidly as its economic activity rises, relative to global activity, meaning that fast-growing countries contribute most heavily to current GHG emissions. Then, using real per-capita GDP as our metric, we estimate how much the carbon price should be in order to remove the economic growth benefit from excess GHG emissions. We find that the implied prices are far higher than the prices on any existing market for emissions as well as estimates of the social cost of carbon. Our findings also have important implications for the global dialogue regarding responsibility for climate mitigation as well as for the choice of policies to support mitigation efforts

A Template for Analyzing and Projecting Labor Market Indicators

This note is a reference guide for the unemployment template, an econometric tool that allows researchers to analyze and project labor market indicators for any country with sufficient data coverage. Section I explains the motivation behind designing a new surveillance tool to study labor markets, and summarizes the key features of the template. Section II details the data inputs needed and their sources. Section III describes the methods used to estimate the employment-growth elasticity, a measure of the extent to which employment responds to output. Section IV outlines the medium-term outlook table and projection charts created by the template once the inputs are customized to generate an appropriate elasticity. Finally, Section V presents a discussion of how to interpret the results produced by the template, and of the issues that arise from projecting labor market indicators