The Expected Value Premium

Fama and French (2002) estimate the equity premium using dividend growth rates to measure the expected rate of capital gain. We use similar methods to study the value premium. From 1941 to 2002, the expected HML return is on average 5.1% per annum, consisting of an expected-dividend-growth component of 3.5% and an expected-dividend-to-price component of 1.6%. The ex-ante HML return is also countercyclical: a positive, one-standard-deviation shock to real consumption growth rate lowers this premium by about 0.45%. Unlike the equity premium, there is only mixed evidence suggesting that the value premium has declined over time.

Patient`s health culture and competence when in need of medicaments

Десетилетия наред България се нарежда в челните редици на страните с най-висока заболяемост и смъртност сред населението. Последните резултати обаче показват, че средната продължителност на живота в страната, макар и бавно, се покачва. Защо това е така? Едно от възможните обяснения или поне един от важните фактори, който може да е част от обяснението на този феномен, е, че здравната култура и здравните познания на една голяма част от хората в България значително са се повишили.For decades Bulgaria has stood among the countries with the highest population morbidity and death rate. However, recent results show that the average life expectancy in the country slowly increases. Why is it so? One of the possible explanations, or at least one of the important factors that could form part of the explanation of this phenomenon, is the fact that a large part of the Bulgarian people`s health culture and knowledge have increased considerably

EPIDEMIOLOGICAL COMPARISON OF INFLUENZA, ARI AND COVID-19 PREVALENCE IN BULGARIA FOR THE PERIOD 2017-2022

Introduction: The report presents a comparison of the incidence of respiratory infections - influenza, other acute respiratory infections and COVID-19 for the period 2017-2022. A comparative analysis of the epidemiological dynamics in different areas of the country is made and factors such as demography and vaccine coverage are also analyzed. Materials and Methods: A comparative analysis of the prevalence of Influenza/ARI, and COVID-19 was made for the years of the studied period. Regional values were compared to the country total in order to rank regions according to the experienced disease incidence burden at a regional level. The percentile method was used to identify and filter the regions where Influenza/ARI waves appeared with the highest intensity in the country. To compare intensity of COVID-19 waves between the selected regions we used the maximal weekly incidence values per 100 000 population reached for the different periods of the pandemic. Information on the age structure of the population in the respective regions and the vaccine uptake was retrieved and compared. Results: The regions of Blagoevgrad, Montana, Haskovo, Razgrad, Kardzhali, Sliven and Targovishte were filtered among all regions as the ones with the most intensive Influenza waves for the period 2017-2022.  Blagoevgrad and Sliven were the regions with higher maximal COVID-19 incidence values before the Delta circulation and during the Omicron predominance. When the Delta variant was predominant, Blagoevgrad and Montana surpassed the incidence recorded for the country. No data supporting the initial hypothesis that demographic structure at regional level determines intensity of spread of the two viral respiratory infections was found. However, the regions with higher COVID-19 vaccines coverage were found to have the lowest incidence levels of the infection. Conclusion: Although COVID-19 and Influenza/ARI are both respiratory infections, they differ in their epidemiology and no specific pattern can be found. We recommend that anti-epidemic measures should be followed to limit incidence regardless of the circulating respiratory pathogen

Proposal for lay-out of a sand casting foundry

Ingeniería IndustrialIndustria Ingeniaritz

Does idiosyncratic volatility proxy for risk exposure?

We decompose aggregate market variance into an average correlation component and an average variance component. Only the latter commands a negative price of risk in the cross section of portfolios sorted by idiosyncratic volatility. Portfolios with high (low) idiosyncratic volatility relative to the Fama-French (1993) model have positive (negative) exposures to innovations in average stock variance and therefore lower (higher) expected returns. These two findings explain the idiosyncratic volatility puzzle of Ang et al. (2006, 2009). The factor related to innovations in average variance also reduces the pricing errors of book-to-market and momentum portfolios relative to the Fama-French (1993) model