Can We Measure a COVID-19-Related Slowdown in Atmospheric CO₂ Growth? Sensitivity of Total Carbon Column Observations

The COVID-19 pandemic is causing projected annual CO2 emission reductions up to −8% for 2020. This approximately matches the reductions required year on year to fulfill the Paris agreement. We pursue the question whether related atmospheric concentration changes may be detected by the Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON), and brought into agreement with bottom-up emission-reduction estimates. We present a mathematical framework to derive annual growth rates from observed column-averaged carbon dioxide (XCO2) including uncertainties. The min–max range of TCCON growth rates for 2012–2019 was [2.00, 3.27] ppm/yr with a largest one-year increase of 1.07 ppm/yr for 2015/16 caused by El Niño. Uncertainties are 0.38 [0.28, 0.44] ppm/yr limited by synoptic variability, including a 0.05 ppm/yr contribution from single-measurement precision. TCCON growth rates are linked to a UK Met Office forecast of a COVID-19-related reduction of −0.32 ppm yr−2 in 2020 for Mauna Loa. The separation of TCCON-measured growth rates vs. the reference forecast (without COVID-19) is discussed in terms of detection delay. A 0.6 [0.4, 0.7]-yr delay is caused by the impact of synoptic variability on XCO2, including a ≈1-month contribution from single-measurement precision. A hindrance for the detection of the COVID-19-related growth rate reduction in 2020 is the ±0.57 ppm/yr uncertainty for the forecasted reference case (without COVID-19). Only assuming the ongoing growth rate reductions increasing year-on-year by −0.32 ppm yr−2 would allow a discrimination of TCCON measurements vs. the unperturbed forecast and its uncertainty—with a 2.4 [2.2, 2.5]-yr delay. Using no forecast but the max–min range of the TCCON-observed growth rates for discrimination only leads to a factor ≈2 longer delay. Therefore, the forecast uncertainties for annual growth rates must be reduced. This requires improved terrestrial ecosystem models and ocean observations to better quantify the land and ocean sinks dominating interannual variability

The Zugspitze radiative closure experiment for quantifying water vapor absorption over the terrestrial and solar infrared - Part 3: Quantification of the mid- and near-infrared water vapor continuum in the 2500 to 7800cm-1 spectral range under atmospheric conditions

We present a first quantification of the near-infrared (NIR) water vapor continuum absorption from an atmospheric radiative closure experiment carried out at the Zugspitze (47.42° N, 10.98° E; 2964 m a.s.l.). Continuum quantification is achieved via radiative closure using radiometrically calibrated solar Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) absorption spectra covering the 2500 to 7800 cm−1 spectral range. The dry atmospheric conditions at the Zugspitze site (IWV 1.4 to 3.3 mm) enable continuum quantification even within water vapor absorption bands, while upper limits for continuum absorption can be provided in the centers of window regions. Throughout 75 % of the 2500 to 7800 cm−1 spectral range, the Zugspitze results agree within our estimated uncertainty with the widely used MT_CKD 2.5.2 model (Mlawer et al., 2012). In the wings of water vapor absorption bands, our measurements indicate about 2–5 times stronger continuum absorption than MT_CKD, namely in the 2800 to 3000 cm−1 and 4100 to 4200 cm−1 spectral ranges. The measurements are consistent with the laboratory measurements of Mondelain et al. (2015), which rely on cavity ring-down spectroscopy (CDRS), and the calorimetric–interferometric measurements of Bicknell et al. (2006). Compared to the recent FTIR laboratory studies of Ptashnik et al. (2012, 2013), our measurements are consistent within the estimated errors throughout most of the spectral range. However, in the wings of water vapor absorption bands our measurements indicate typically 2–3 times weaker continuum absorption under atmospheric conditions, namely in the 3200 to 3400, 4050 to 4200, and 6950 to 7050 cm−1 spectral regions

Trends of CO2, CH4 and N2O over 1985-2010 from high-resolution FTIR solar observations at the Jungfraujoch station

Two state-of-the-art Fourier Transform Infrared (FTIR) spectrometers are operated at the Jungfraujoch station (46.5ºN, 8.0ºE, 3580m asl) within the framework of the Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change (NDACC, visit http://www.ndacc.org). The earliest FTIR observations have been obtained there in 1984. Since then, regular recordings of high-resolution solar absorption spectra have been performed at that site, under clear-sky conditions, allowing to collect almost 29000 observations relevant to the present communication. We present time series of three greenhouse gases targeted by the Kyoto Protocol: CO2, CH4 (and its isotopologue 13CH4) and N2O. These data sets have been obtained with the SFIT-2 algorithm which implements the Optimal Estimation Method of Rodgers (1990). This allows retrieving total columns of the target gases as well as information on their distribution with altitude. For the methane isotopologues and N2O, a Tikhonov L1 regularization scheme has been applied, as part of an harmonization effort carried out within the European HYMN project (see also Dils et al, 2010; Foster et al., 2010). Trends –and their associated uncertainties– characterizing these long series as well as the seasonal modulations have been determined with a statistical tool using bootstrap resampling (Gardiner et al., 2008). Trend values will be presented and critically discussed; in particular, we will investigate if significant changes in the rate of accumulations of these four atmospheric gases occurred over the last 25 years. Numerous additional greenhouse gases are accessible to the FTIR technique. Examples of such trend studies are reported at the EGU General Assembly by Mahieu et al. (2010) and Rinsland et al. (2010)

The Zugspitze radiative closure experiment for quantifying water vapor absorption over the terrestrial and solar infrared - Part 1: Setup, uncertainty analysis, and assessment of far-infrared water vapor continuum

Quantitative knowledge of water vapor radiative processes in the atmosphere throughout the terrestrial and solar infrared spectrum is still incomplete even though this is crucial input to the radiation codes forming the core of both remote sensing methods and climate simulations. Beside laboratory spectroscopy, ground-based remote sensing field studies in the context of so-called radiative closure experiments are a powerful approach because this is the only way to quantify water absorption under cold atmospheric conditions. For this purpose, we have set up at the Zugspitze (47.42° N, 10.98° E; 2964 m a.s.l.) a long-term radiative closure experiment designed to cover the infrared spectrum between 400 and 7800 cm−1 (1.28–25 µm). As a benefit for such experiments, the atmospheric states at the Zugspitze frequently comprise very low integrated water vapor (IWV; minimum  =  0.1 mm, median  =  2.3 mm) and very low aerosol optical depth (AOD  =  0.0024–0.0032 at 7800 cm−1 at air mass 1). All instruments for radiance measurements and atmospheric-state measurements are described along with their measurement uncertainties. Based on all parameter uncertainties and the corresponding radiance Jacobians, a systematic residual radiance uncertainty budget has been set up to characterize the sensitivity of the radiative closure over the whole infrared spectral range. The dominant uncertainty contribution in the spectral windows used for far-infrared (FIR) continuum quantification is from IWV uncertainties, while T profile uncertainties dominate in the mid-infrared (MIR). Uncertainty contributions to near-infrared (NIR) radiance residuals are dominated by water vapor line parameters in the vicinity of the strong water vapor bands. The window regions in between these bands are dominated by solar Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) calibration uncertainties at low NIR wavenumbers, while uncertainties due to AOD become an increasing and dominant contribution towards higher NIR wavenumbers. Exceptions are methane or nitrous oxide bands in the NIR, where the associated line parameter uncertainties dominate the overall uncertainty. As a first demonstration of the Zugspitze closure experiment, a water vapor continuum quantification in the FIR spectral region (400–580 cm−1) has been performed. The resulting FIR foreign-continuum coefficients are consistent with the MT_CKD 2.5.2 continuum model and also agree with the most recent atmospheric closure study carried out in Antarctica. Results from the first determination of the NIR water vapor continuum in a field experiment are detailed in a companion paper (Reichert and Sussmann, 2016) while a novel NIR calibration scheme for the underlying FTIR measurements of incoming solar radiance is presented in another companion paper

The Zugspitze radiative closure experiment for quantifying water vapor absorption over the terrestrial and solar infrared - Part 2: Accurate calibration of high spectral-resolution infrared measurements of surface solar radiation

Quantitative knowledge of water vapor absorption is crucial for accurate climate simulations. An open science question in this context concerns the strength of the water vapor continuum in the near infrared (NIR) at atmospheric temperatures, which is still to be quantified by measurements. This issue can be addressed with radiative closure experiments using solar absorption spectra. However, the spectra used for water vapor continuum quantification have to be radiometrically calibrated. We present for the first time a method that yields sufficient calibration accuracy for NIR water vapor continuum quantification in an atmospheric closure experiment. Our method combines the Langley method with spectral radiance measurements of a high-temperature blackbody calibration source (<  2000 K). The calibration scheme is demonstrated in the spectral range 2500 to 7800 cm−1, but minor modifications to the method enable calibration also throughout the remainder of the NIR spectral range. The resulting uncertainty (2σ) excluding the contribution due to inaccuracies in the extra-atmospheric solar spectrum (ESS) is below 1 % in window regions and up to 1.7 % within absorption bands. The overall radiometric accuracy of the calibration depends on the ESS uncertainty, on which at present no firm consensus has been reached in the NIR. However, as is shown in the companion publication Reichert and Sussmann (2016), ESS uncertainty is only of minor importance for the specific aim of this study, i.e., the quantification of the water vapor continuum in a closure experiment. The calibration uncertainty estimate is substantiated by the investigation of calibration self-consistency, which yields compatible results within the estimated errors for 91.1 % of the 2500 to 7800 cm−1 range. Additionally, a comparison of a set of calibrated spectra to radiative transfer model calculations yields consistent results within the estimated errors for 97.7 % of the spectral range