An international randomised placebo-controlled trial of a four-component combination pill ("polypill") in people with raised cardiovascular risk.

BACKGROUND:There has been widespread interest in the potential of combination cardiovascular medications containing aspirin and agents to lower blood pressure and cholesterol ('polypills') to reduce cardiovascular disease. However, no reliable placebo-controlled data are available on both efficacy and tolerability. METHODS:We conducted a randomised, double-blind placebo-controlled trial of a polypill (containing aspirin 75 mg, lisinopril 10 mg, hydrochlorothiazide 12.5 mg and simvastatin 20 mg) in 378 individuals without an indication for any component of the polypill, but who had an estimated 5-year cardiovascular disease risk over 7.5%. The primary outcomes were systolic blood pressure (SBP), LDL-cholesterol and tolerability (proportion discontinued randomised therapy) at 12 weeks follow-up. FINDINGS:At baseline, mean BP was 134/81 mmHg and mean LDL-cholesterol was 3.7 mmol/L. Over 12 weeks, polypill treatment reduced SBP by 9.9 (95% CI: 7.7 to 12.1) mmHg and LDL-cholesterol by 0.8 (95% CI 0.6 to 0.9) mmol/L. The discontinuation rates in the polypill group compared to placebo were 23% vs 18% (RR 1.33, 95% CI 0.89 to 2.00, p = 0.2). There was an excess of side effects known to the component medicines (58% vs 42%, p = 0.001), which was mostly apparent within a few weeks, and usually did not warrant cessation of trial treatment. CONCLUSIONS:This polypill achieved sizeable reductions in SBP and LDL-cholesterol but caused side effects in about 1 in 6 people. The halving in predicted cardiovascular risk is moderately lower than previous estimates and the side effect rate is moderately higher. Nonetheless, substantial net benefits would be expected among patients at high risk. TRIAL REGISTRATION:Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry ACTRN12607000099426

Specialist antenatal clinics for women at high risk of preterm birth: a systematic review of qualitative and quantitative research

Background Preterm birth (PTB) is the leading cause of perinatal morbidity and mortality. Women with previous prenatal loss are at higher risk of preterm birth. A specialist antenatal clinic is considered as one approach to improve maternity and pregnancy outcomes. Methods A systematic review of quantitative, qualitative and mixed method studies conducted on women at high risk of preterm birth (PTB). The review primary outcomes were to report on the specialist antenatal clinics effect in preventing or reducing preterm birth, perinatal mortality and morbidity and women’s perceptions and experiences of a specialist clinic whether compared or not compared with standard antenatal care. Other secondary maternal, infant and economic outcomes were also determined. A comprehensive search strategy was carried out in English within electronic databases as far back as 1980. The reviewers selected studies, assessed the quality, and extracted data independently. Results were summarized and tabulated. Results Eleven studies fully met the review inclusion criteria, ten were quantitative design studies and only one was a qualitative design study. No mixed method design study was included in the review. All were published after 1989, seven were conducted in the USA and four in the UK. Results from five good to low quality randomised controlled trials (RCTs), all conducted before 1990, did not illustrate the efficacy of the clinic in reducing preterm birth. Whereas results from more recent low quality cohort studies showed some positive neonatal outcomes. Themes from one good quality qualitative study reflected on the emotional and psychological need to reduce anxiety and stress of women referred to such a clinic. Women expressed their negative emotional responses at being labelled as high risk and positive responses to being assessed and treated in the clinic. Women also reported that their partners were struggling to cope emotionally. Conclusions Findings from this review were mixed. Evidence from cohort studies indicated a specialist clinic may be a means of predicting or preventing preterm birth. Testing this in a randomised controlled trial is desirable, though may be hard to achieve due to the growing focus of such clinics on managing women at high risk of preterm birth. Ongoing research has to recognize women’s experiences and perceptions of such a clinic. Further clarification of the optimal referral route and a clear and standardized management and cost economic evaluation plan are also required. Fathers support and experience of PTB clinics should also be included in further research

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

SummaryBackground The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 provides an up-to-date synthesis of the evidence for risk factor exposure and the attributable burden of disease. By providing national and subnational assessments spanning the past 25 years, this study can inform debates on the importance of addressing risks in context. Methods We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of the Global Burden of Disease Study to estimate attributable deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and trends in exposure by age group, sex, year, and geography for 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2015. This study included 388 risk-outcome pairs that met World Cancer Research Fund-defined criteria for convincing or probable evidence. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. We developed a metric that allows comparisons of exposure across risk factors—the summary exposure value. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk level, we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We decomposed trends in attributable burden into contributions from population growth, population age structure, risk exposure, and risk-deleted cause-specific DALY rates. We characterised risk exposure in relation to a Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Findings Between 1990 and 2015, global exposure to unsafe sanitation, household air pollution, childhood underweight, childhood stunting, and smoking each decreased by more than 25%. Global exposure for several occupational risks, high body-mass index (BMI), and drug use increased by more than 25% over the same period. All risks jointly evaluated in 2015 accounted for 57·8% (95% CI 56·6–58·8) of global deaths and 41·2% (39·8–42·8) of DALYs. In 2015, the ten largest contributors to global DALYs among Level 3 risks were high systolic blood pressure (211·8 million [192·7 million to 231·1 million] global DALYs), smoking (148·6 million [134·2 million to 163·1 million]), high fasting plasma glucose (143·1 million [125·1 million to 163·5 million]), high BMI (120·1 million [83·8 million to 158·4 million]), childhood undernutrition (113·3 million [103·9 million to 123·4 million]), ambient particulate matter (103·1 million [90·8 million to 115·1 million]), high total cholesterol (88·7 million [74·6 million to 105·7 million]), household air pollution (85·6 million [66·7 million to 106·1 million]), alcohol use (85·0 million [77·2 million to 93·0 million]), and diets high in sodium (83·0 million [49·3 million to 127·5 million]). From 1990 to 2015, attributable DALYs declined for micronutrient deficiencies, childhood undernutrition, unsafe sanitation and water, and household air pollution; reductions in risk-deleted DALY rates rather than reductions in exposure drove these declines. Rising exposure contributed to notable increases in attributable DALYs from high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, occupational carcinogens, and drug use. Environmental risks and childhood undernutrition declined steadily with SDI; low physical activity, high BMI, and high fasting plasma glucose increased with SDI. In 119 countries, metabolic risks, such as high BMI and fasting plasma glucose, contributed the most attributable DALYs in 2015. Regionally, smoking still ranked among the leading five risk factors for attributable DALYs in 109 countries; childhood underweight and unsafe sex remained primary drivers of early death and disability in much of sub-Saharan Africa. Interpretation Declines in some key environmental risks have contributed to declines in critical infectious diseases. Some risks appear to be invariant to SDI. Increasing risks, including high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, drug use, and some occupational exposures, contribute to rising burden from some conditions, but also provide opportunities for intervention. Some highly preventable risks, such as smoking, remain major causes of attributable DALYs, even as exposure is declining. Public policy makers need to pay attention to the risks that are increasingly major contributors to global burden. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Development and use of genic molecular markers (GMMs) for construction of a transcript map of chickpea (Cicer arietinum L.)

A transcript map has been constructed by the development and integration of genic molecular markers (GMMs) including single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP), genic microsatellite or simple sequence repeat (SSR) and intron spanning region (ISR)-based markers, on an inter-specific mapping population of chickpea, the third food legume crop of the world and the first food legume crop of India. For SNP discovery through allele re-sequencing, primer pairs were designed for 688 genes/expressed sequence tags (ESTs) of chickpea and 657 genes/ESTs of closely related species of chickpea. High-quality sequence data obtained for 220 candidate genic regions on 2–20 genotypes representing 9 Cicer species provided 1,893 SNPs with an average frequency of 1/35.83 bp and 0.34 PIC (polymorphism information content) value. On an average 2.9 haplotypes were present in 220 candidate genic regions with an average haplotype diversity of 0.6326. SNP2CAPS analysis of 220 sequence alignments, as mentioned above, provided a total of 192 CAPS candidates. Experimental analysis of these 192 CAPS candidates together with 87 CAPS candidates identified earlier through in silico mining of ESTs provided scorable amplification in 173 (62.01%) cases of which predicted assays were validated in 143 (82.66%) cases (CGMM). Alignments of chickpea unigenes with Medicago truncatula genome were used to develop 121 intron spanning region (CISR) markers of which 87 yielded scorable products. In addition, optimization of 77 EST-derived SSR (ICCeM) markers provided 51 scorable markers. Screening of easily assayable 281 markers including 143 CGMMs, 87 CISRs and 51 ICCeMs on 5 parental genotypes of three mapping populations identified 104 polymorphic markers including 90 markers on the inter-specific mapping population. Sixty-two of these GMMs together with 218 earlier published markers (including 64 GMM loci) and 20 other unpublished markers could be integrated into this genetic map. A genetic map developed here, therefore, has a total of 300 loci including 126 GMM loci and spans 766.56 cM, with an average inter-marker distance of 2.55 cM. In summary, this is the first report on the development of large-scale genic markers including development of easily assayable markers and a transcript map of chickpea. These resources should be useful not only for genome analysis and genetics and breeding applications of chickpea, but also for comparative legume genomics

Genome-Wide Distribution and Organization of Microsatellites in Plants: An Insight into Marker Development in Brachypodium

Plant genomes are complex and contain large amounts of repetitive DNA including microsatellites that are distributed across entire genomes. Whole genome sequences of several monocot and dicot plants that are available in the public domain provide an opportunity to study the origin, distribution and evolution of microsatellites, and also facilitate the development of new molecular markers. In the present investigation, a genome-wide analysis of microsatellite distribution in monocots (Brachypodium, sorghum and rice) and dicots (Arabidopsis, Medicago and Populus) was performed. A total of 797,863 simple sequence repeats (SSRs) were identified in the whole genome sequences of six plant species. Characterization of these SSRs revealed that mono-nucleotide repeats were the most abundant repeats, and that the frequency of repeats decreased with increase in motif length both in monocots and dicots. However, the frequency of SSRs was higher in dicots than in monocots both for nuclear and chloroplast genomes. Interestingly, GC-rich repeats were the dominant repeats only in monocots, with the majority of them being present in the coding region. These coding GC-rich repeats were found to be involved in different biological processes, predominantly binding activities. In addition, a set of 22,879 SSR markers that were validated by e-PCR were developed and mapped on different chromosomes in Brachypodium for the first time, with a frequency of 101 SSR markers per Mb. Experimental validation of 55 markers showed successful amplification of 80% SSR markers in 16 Brachypodium accessions. An online database ‘BraMi’ (Brachypodium microsatellite markers) of these genome-wide SSR markers was developed and made available in the public domain. The observed differential patterns of SSR marker distribution would be useful for studying microsatellite evolution in a monocot–dicot system. SSR markers developed in this study would be helpful for genomic studies in Brachypodium and related grass species, especially for the map based cloning of the candidate gene(s)

Indian summer monsoon onset forecast skill in the UK Met Office initialized coupled seasonal forecasting system (GloSea5-GC2)

Accurate and precise forecasting of the Indian monsoon is important for the socio-economic security of India, with improvements in agriculture and associated sectors from prediction of the monsoon onset. In this study we establish the skill of the UK Met Office coupled initialized global seasonal forecasting system, GloSea5-GC2, in forecasting Indian monsoon onset. We build on previous work that has demonstrated the good skill of GloSea5 at forecasting interannual variations of the seasonal mean Indian monsoon using measures of large-scale circulation and local precipitation. We analyze the summer hindcasts from a set of three springtime start-dates in late April/early May for the 20-year hindcast period (1992-2011). The hindcast set features at least fifteen ensemble members for each year and is analyzed using five different objective monsoon indices. These indices are designed to examine large and local-scale measures of the monsoon circulation, hydrological changes, tropospheric temperature gradient, or rainfall for single value (area-averaged) or grid-point measures of the Indian monsoon onset. There is significant correlation between onset dates in the model and those found in reanalysis. Indices based on large-scale dynamic and thermodynamic indices are better at estimating monsoon onset in the model rather than local-scale dynamical and hydrological indices. This can be attributed to the model's better representation of large-scale dynamics compared to local-scale features. GloSea5 may not be able to predict the exact date of monsoon onset over India, but this study shows that the model has a good ability at predicting category-wise monsoon onset, using early, normal or late tercile categories. Using a grid-point local rainfall onset index, we note that the forecast skill is highest over parts of central India, the Gangetic plains, and parts of coastal India - all zones of extensive agriculture in India. El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forcing in the model improves the forecast skill of monsoon onset when using a large-scale circulation index, with late monsoon onset coinciding with El Niño conditions and early monsoon onset more common in La Niña years. The results of this study suggest that GloSea5's ensemble-mean forecast may be used for reliable Indian monsoon onset prediction a month in advance despite systematic model errors

Integrated Assessment of Heavy Metal Contamination in Sediments from a Coastal Industrial Basin, NE China

The purpose of this study is to investigate the current status of metal pollution of the sediments from urban-stream, estuary and Jinzhou Bay of the coastal industrial city, NE China. Forty surface sediment samples from river, estuary and bay and one sediment core from Jinzhou bay were collected and analyzed for heavy metal concentrations of Cu, Zn, Pb, Cd, Ni and Mn. The data reveals that there was a remarkable change in the contents of heavy metals among the sampling sediments, and all the mean values of heavy metal concentration were higher than the national guideline values of marine sediment quality of China (GB 18668-2002). This is one of the most polluted of the world’s impacted coastal systems. Both the correlation analyses and geostatistical analyses showed that Cu, Zn, Pb and Cd have a very similar spatial pattern and come from the industrial activities, and the concentration of Mn mainly caused by natural factors. The estuary is the most polluted area with extremely high potential ecological risk; however the contamination decreased with distance seaward of the river estuary. This study clearly highlights the urgent need to make great efforts to control the industrial emission and the exceptionally severe heavy metal pollution in the coastal area, and the immediate measures should be carried out to minimize the rate of contamination, and extent of future pollution problems