Evaluation of DR-Advisor on the ASHRAE Great Energy Predictor Shootout Challenge

This paper describes the evaluation of DR-Advisor algorithms on \u27\u27The Great Energy Predictor Shootout - The First Building Data Analysis and Prediction Competition\u27\u27 held in 1993-94 by ASHRAE

Data-Driven Modeling, Control and Tools for Cyber-Physical Energy Systems

Demand response (DR) is becoming increasingly important as the volatility on the grid continues to increase. Current DR approaches are completely manual and rule-based or in- volve deriving first principles based models which are ex- tremely cost and time prohibitive to build. We consider the problem of data-driven end-user DR for large buildings which involves predicting the demand response baseline, evaluating fixed rule based DR strategies and synthesizing DR control actions. We provide a model based control with regression trees algorithm (mbCRT), which allows us to perform closed- loop control for DR strategy synthesis for large commercial buildings. Our data-driven control synthesis algorithm out- performs rule-based DR by 17% for a large DoE commercial reference building and leads to a curtailment of 380kW and over $45, 000 in savings. Our methods have been integrated into an open source tool called DR-Advisor, which acts as a recommender system for the building’s facilities manager and provides suitable control actions to meet the desired load curtailment while maintaining operations and maximizing the economic reward. DR-Advisor achieves 92.8% to 98.9% pre- diction accuracy for 8 buildings on Penn’s campus. We com- pare DR-Advisor with other data driven methods and rank 2nd on ASHRAE’s benchmarking data-set for energy predic- tion

Model-IQ: Uncertainty Propagation from Sensing to Modeling and Control in Buildings.

A fundamental problem in the design of closed-loop Cyber-Physical Systems (CPS) is in accurately capturing the dynamics of the underlying physical system. To provide optimal control for such closed-loop systems, model-based controls require accurate physical plant models. It is hard to analytically establish (a) how data quality from sensors affects model accuracy, and consequently, (b) the effect of model accuracy on the operational cost of model-based controllers. We present the Model-IQ toolbox which, given a plant model and real input data, automatically evaluates the effect of this uncertainty propagation from sensor data to model accuracy to controller performance. We apply the Model-IQ uncertainty analysis for model-based controls in buildings to demonstrate the cost-benefit of adding temporary sensors to capture a building model. We show how sensor placement and density bias training data. For the real building considered, a bias of 1% degrades model accuracy by 20%. Model-IQ\u27s automated process lowers the cost of sensor deployment, model training and evaluation of advanced controls for small and medium sized buildings. Such end-to-end analysis of uncertainty propagation has the potential to lower the cost for CPS with closed-loop model based control. We demonstrate this with real building data in the Department of Energy\u27s HUB

DR-Advisor: A Data-Driven Demand Response Recommender System

Demand response (DR) is becoming increasingly important as the volatility on the grid continues to increase. Current DR ap- proaches are predominantly completely manual and rule-based or involve deriving first principles based models which are ex- tremely cost and time prohibitive to build. We consider the problem of data-driven end-user DR for large buildings which involves predicting the demand response baseline, evaluating fixed rule based DR strategies and synthesizing DR control actions. The challenge is in evaluating and taking control decisions at fast time scales in order to curtail the power consumption of the building, in return for a financial reward. We provide a model based control with regression trees algorithm (mbCRT), which allows us to perform closed-loop control for DR strategy synthesis for large commercial buildings. Our data-driven control synthesis algorithm outperforms rule-based DR by 17% for a large DoE commercial reference building and leads to a curtailment of 380kW and over $45, 000 in savings. Our methods have been integrated into an open source tool called DR-Advisor, which acts as a recommender system for the building’s facilities manager and provides suitable control actions to meet the desired load curtailment while main- taining operations and maximizing the economic reward. DR-Advisor achieves 92.8% to 98.9% prediction accuracy for 8 buildings on Penn’s campus. We compare DR-Advisor with other data driven methods and rank 2nd on ASHRAE’s benchmarking data-set for energy prediction

Uncertainty Propagation from Sensing to Modeling and Control in Buildings - Technical Report

A fundamental problem in the design of closed-loop Cyber-Physical Systems (CPS) is in accurately capturing the dynamics of the underlying physical system. To provide optimal control for such closed-loop systems, model-based controls require accurate physical plant models. It is hard to analytically establish (a) how data quality from sensors affects model accuracy, and consequently, (b) the effect of model accuracy on the operational cost of model-based controllers. We present the Model-IQ toolbox which, given a plant model and real input data, automatically evaluates the effect of this uncertainty propagation from sensor data to model accuracy to controller performance. We apply the Model-IQ uncertainty analysis for model-based controls in buildings to demonstrate the cost-benefit of adding temporary sensors to capture a building model. Model-IQ\u27s automated process lowers the cost of sensor deployment, model training and evaluation of advanced controls for small and medium sized buildings. Model-IQ provides recommendation of sensor placement and density to trade-off the cost of additional sensors with energy savings by the improved controller performance. Such end-to-end analysis of uncertainty propagation has the potential to lower the cost for CPS with closed-loop model based control. We demonstrate this with real building data in the Department of Energy\u27s HUB

DR-Advisor: A Data Driven Demand Response Recommender System

A data-driven method for demand response baselining and strategy evaluation is presented. Using meter and weather data along with set-point schedule information, we use an ensemble of regression trees to learn non-parametric data-driven models for predicting the power consumption of the building. This model can be used for evaluating demand response strategies in real-time, without having to learn complex models of the building. The methods have been integrated in an open-source tool called DR-Advisor, which acts as a recommender system for the building’s facilities manager by advising on which control actions should be during a demand response event. We provide a case study using data from a large commercial vistural test-bed building to evaluate the performance of the DR-Advisor tool. Keywords: demand response, regression trees, machine learnin

IMpACT: Inverse Model Accuracy and Control Performance Toolbox for Buildings

Uncertainty affects all aspects of building performance: from the identification of models, through the implementation of model-based control, to the operation of the deployed systems. Learning models of buildings from sensor data has a fundamental property that the model can only be as accurate and reliable as the data on which it was trained. For small and medium size buildings, a low-cost method for model capture is necessary to take advantage of optimal model-based supervisory control schemes. We present IMpACT, a methodology and a toolbox for analysis of uncertainty propagation for building inverse modeling and controls. Given a plant model and real input data, IMpACT automatically evaluates the effect of the uncertainty propagation from sensor data to model accuracy and control performance. We also present a statistical method to quantify the bias in the sensor measurement and to determine near optimal sensor placement and density for accurate signal measurements. In our previous work, we considered the end-to-end propagation of uncertainty in the form of fixed bias in the sensor data. In this paper, we extend the method to work with random errors in the sensor data, which is more realistic. Using a real building test-bed, we show how performing an uncertainty analysis can reveal trends about inverse model accuracy and control performance, which can be used to make informed decisions about sensor requirements and data accuracy

Scalable Scheduling of Building Control Systems for Peak Demand Reduction

In large energy systems, peak demand might cause severe issues such as service disruption and high cost of energy production and distribution. Under the widely adopted peak-demand pricing policy, electricity customers are charged a very high price for their maximum demand to discourage their energy usage in peak load conditions. In buildings, peak demand is often the result of temporally correlated energy demand surges caused by uncoordinated operation of sub-systems such as heating, ventilating, air conditioning and refrigeration (HVAC&R) systems and lighting systems. We have previously presented green scheduling as an approach to schedule the building control systems within a constrained peak demand envelope while ensuring that custom climate conditions are facilitated. This paper provides a sufficient schedulability condition for the peak constraint to be realizable for a large and practical class of system dynamics that can capture certain nonlinear dynamics, inter-dependencies, and constrained disturbances. We also present a method for synthesizing periodic schedules for the system. The proposed method is demonstrated in a simulation example to be scalable and effective for a large-scale system

Green Scheduling: Scheduling of Control Systems for Peak Power Reduction

Heating, cooling and air quality control systems within buildings and datacenters operate independently of each other and frequently result in temporally correlated energy demand surges. As peak power prices are 200-400 times that of the nominal rate, this uncoordinated activity is both expensive and operationally inefficient. While several approaches for load shifting and model predictive control have been proposed, we present an alternative approach to fine-grained coordination of energy demand by scheduling energy consuming control systems within a constrained peak power while ensuring custom climate environments are facilitated. Unlike traditional real-time scheduling theory, where the execution time and hence the schedule are a function of the system variables only, control system execution (i.e. when energy is supplied to the system) are a function of the environmental variables and the plant dynamics. To this effect, we propose a geometric interpretation of the system dynamics, where a scheduling policy is represented as a hybrid automaton and the scheduling problem is presented as designing a hybrid automaton. Tasks are constructed by extracting the temporal parameters of the system dynamics. We provide feasibility conditions and a lazy scheduling approach to reduce the peak power for a set of control systems. The proposed model is intuitive, scalable and effective for the large class of systems whose state-time profile can be linearly approximated

MLE+: A Tool for Integrated Design and Deployment of Energy Efficient Building Controls

We present MLE+, a tool for energy-efficient building automation design, co-simulation and analysis. The tool leverages the high-fidelity building simulation capabilities of EnergyPlus and the scientific computation and design capabilities of Matlab for controller design. MLE+ facilitates integrated building simulation and controller formulation with integrated support for system identification, control design, optimization, simulation analysis and communication between software applications and building equipment. It provides streamlined workflows, a graphical front-end, and debugging support to help control engineers eliminate design and programming errors and take informed decisions early in the design stage, leading to fewer iterations in the building automation development cycle. We show through an example and two case studies how MLE+ can be used for designing energy-efficient control algorithms for both simulated buildings in EnergyPlus and real building equipment via BACnet