Movement economies in fractured urban systems: the case of Boston, Massachusetts

This thesis explores the influence of configuration on movement in fragmented, low intelligibility spatial systems. Traditional space syntax theory holds that correlation between space and movement breaks down in such situations, resulting in lower predictability and / or apparently chaotic behaviour. This thesis uses the case study of Boston, Massachusetts to test three hypotheses; 1) that space is indeed influential on fragmented systems, 2) that other variables are less important than space in predicting movement, and 3) that space – movement correlations are distributed non-uniformly between areas and user groups. These are tested through the use of multiple regression analysis and a new technique named “correlation contour mapping,” which outlines the boundaries of predictability within complex spatial systems. It will be shown that space plays a significant role in pedestrian movement in Boston, but that it correlates non-uniformly with different areas and users. An understanding of sub-area definitions and the effect of overlapping patterns of correlation is therefore necessary in order to fully comprehend the effects of fragmentary configuration. It is suggested that the use of correlation contouring may achieve this and might be a useful tool for exploring the interaction of different user groups in urban space. This understanding is then used to construct a pedestrian movement model to forecast the effects of a large-scale urban regeneration project in Boston, known as the “Big Dig”. The implications of these findings for other fragmented cities are also discussed in a context of successful urbanisation, based on the work of Lewis Mumford, Jane Jacobs, Kevin Lynch, and Bill Hillier

Weak signal detection: A discrete window of opportunity for achieving ‘Vision 90:90:90’?

INTRODUCTION: UNAIDS’ Vision 90:90:90 is a call to ‘end AIDS’. Developing predictive foresight of the unpredictable changes that this journey will entail could contribute to the ambition of ‘ending AIDS’. There are few opportunities for managing unpredictable changes. We introduce ‘weak signal detection’ as a potential opportunity to fill this void. METHOD: Combining futures and complexity theory, we reflect on two pilot case studies that involved the Archetype Extraction technique and the SenseMakerw CollectorTM tool. RESULTS: Both the piloted techniques have the potentials to surface weak signals but there is room for improvement. DISCUSSION: A management response to a complex weak signal requires pattern management, rather than an exclusive focus on behaviour management. CONCLUSION: Weak signal detection is a window of opportunity to improve resilience to unpredictable changes in the HIV/AIDS landscape that can both reduce the risk that emerges from the changes and increase the visibility of opportunities to exploit the unpredictable changes that could contribute to ‘ending AIDS’.IS

Configurational exploration of public transport movement networks: a case study, the London Underground

The London Underground is presented as a case study for the exploration of configurational effect on a global public transport networks. Several over ground and underground configurational models are analysed against entry/exit movement level of each tube station using multivariate analysis to explore the relationships between configuration and other network variables. This paper examines two approaches towards understanding the factors influencing foot tra±c to and from public transport stations; the first derived from standard public transport planning, the second derived from space syntax configurational approaches. Standard transport planning considers primary variables; employment density, population density, land use, and buffer distance from stations. The configurational approach to transport activity holds that the performance of each transport stop will be influenced by its position in the network structure as much, if not more, than from other factors such as land use and density. Two hypotheses are tested. First, above ground spatial configuration influences the degree of boarding and alighting activity at Underground stations. Second, the topological configuration of the below ground Tube network itself is a significant measure of boarding and alighting activity. Preliminary results demonstrate that the below ground configuration model correlates with all day 120 station activity with an r-squared of 0.54 Above ground configuration also appears to influence station utilisation, but is more difficult to define without more precise, non-metric catchments area definition. The presence of multimodal interchanges such as regional rail or bus services also affects utilisation. These findings suggest that a better understanding of area definition is important to gain an understanding of the 'sphere of influence' surrounding public transport stops, and that additional research resolving the complexities of modelling above- and below-ground systems in tandem is necessary. The paper concludes with a discussion of the necessity to include public transport systems in conjunction with pedestrian and vehicular modes to create a fully configurational urban simulation model

Critical mass: Emergent cyclist route choice in central London

Configurational variables such as integration have been shown to correlate strongly with pedestrian and vehicular trips. Little research to date has focused on the role of spatial accessibility in cyclist route choice. This paper analyses the distribution of cycling trips in the central London area, focusing on a sample of work-based commuting trips. A sample of 423 cyclists from 50 organisations was combined with gate counts of cyclist volume at several Central London locations. Shortest path analysis and a new measure, the "fastest cognitive route", was conducted on a sample of origin-destination points to evaluate how closely cyclist traces followed distance minimisation or least change of direction heuristics. Volume counts were also compared to a variety of configurational measures, including axial integration, mean angular depth, line length, supergrid values, and the number of intersections per line. It was found that work based cycle trips were subject to a wide range of variables which made individual traces difficult to predict. At the aggregate level, however, an emergent order was found to exist which corresponded strongly with least mean angular depth. The implications of this emergent logic are discussed for route choice econometrics and cyclist planning

Space Syntax: The Role of Urban Form in Cyclist Route Choice in Central London

This paper presents a new method for forecasting cyclist volume and route choice based on space syntax techniques for urban analysis. Space syntax has been shown to correlate strongly with pedestrian and vehicular trips in a number of international studies, but little research to date has focused on the role of urban form and street network design in cyclist route choice. This paper addresses this gap by analyzing the distribution of cycling trips in the central London area, focusing on a sample of work-based commuting trips. A sample of 423 cyclists from 50 organizations was combined with cordon volume counts at several Central London locations. It was found that individual cycle trips were subject to a wide range of variables that made individual traces difficult to predict, but that total cyclist volumes corresponded strongly with the most accessible, direct streets in the urban network. This research suggests that angular minimization is an important factor in cyclist route choice and that measurement of least angle routes in urban environments can be a useful way of predicting cyclist volumes and route choice. Such techniques have the potential to save planners and policymakers the expense of performing origin destination studies and may offer a useful tool for cyclist volume prediction