Has India emerged? Business cycle facts from a transitioning economy.

This paper presents a comprehensive set of stylised facts for business cycles in India from 1950 - 2009. We find that the nature of the business cycle has changed dramatically after India's liberalisation reforms in 1991. In particular, after the the mid 1990s, the properties of India's business cycle has moved closer in key respects to select advanced countries. This is consistent with India's structural transformation from a pre-dominantly agricultural and planned developing economy to a more mar- ket based industrial-income economy. We also identify in what respects the behaviour of the Indian business cycle is different from that of other advanced economies, and closer to that of other less developed economies. This is the first exercise of this kind to generate an exhaustive set of stylised facts for India using both annual and quarterly data.Macroeconomics ; Real business cycles ; Emerging market DSGE models ; Volatility and growth

Tracking India Growth in Real Time.

Tracking growth in the Indian economy would be best performed using a measure like GDP. Unfortunately official estimates of this indicator are released with quarterly frequency and with considerable delay. This paper compares different approaches to the short term forecasting (nowcasting) of real GDP growth in India and evaluates methods to optimally gauge the current state of the economy. Univariate quarterly models are compared with bridge models that exploit the available monthly indicators containing information on current quarter developments. In the forecasting exercise we perform a pseudo real-time simulation: by properly taking into account the actual publication lags of the series, we replicate the information set available to the policymaker at each point of time. We find that bridge models perform satisfactorily in predicting current quarter GDP growth. This result follows from the actual estimation technique used to construct the official quarterly national accounts, still largely dependent on a narrow information set. Our analysis also suggests mixed evidences about the additional predictive power of Indian survey data with respect to the hard data already used in the national accounts.Nowcasting ; Bridge model ; Factor model ; Emerging markets ; India

Replacing FIPB with Standard Operating Procedure Not Enough

Foreign investment into India has always been heavily regulated, requiring approvals from various government ministries. Post-liberalisation, a need was felt to create a single window for foreign investors applying for such approvals. As a result, the Foreign Investment Promotion Board (FIPB) was established in August 1991. Initially, it was placed within the Prime Minister's Office (PMO) since its credibility needed to be projected speedily. Then it shifted to Department of Industrial Policy and Promotion (DIPP) and finally to Department of Economic Affairs (DEA) in Ministry of Finance. Here it functioned as an inter-ministerial body making recommendations to the Finance Minister for grant of approval for foreign investments as per the regulations under the Foreign Exchange Management Act, 1999

Bank of Canada Working Paper

Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen: Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden. Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen. Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. iii Terms of use: Documents in Abstract We assess the motivations for changing capital controls and their effectiveness in India, a country with extensive and long-standing controls. We focus on the controls on foreign borrowing that can, in principle, be motivated by macroprudential concerns. We construct a fine-grained data set on capital control actions on foreign borrowing in India. Using event study methodology, we assess the factors that influence these capital control actions, the main factor being the exchange rate. Capital controls are tightened after appreciation, and eased after depreciation, of the exchange rate. Macroprudential concerns, measured by variables that capture systemic risk buildups, do not seem to be a factor shaping the use of capital controls. To assess the impact of controls, we use both event study and propensity score matching methodologies. Event study methodology suggests no impact of capital controls on most variables evaluated, but reveals limited evidence that capital controls relieve currency pressures in the short term. However, even this limited evidence disappears once selection bias is controlled for

Cardiopulmonary Outcomes in Covid-19 Patients Discharged From a Tertiary Care Center: A Prospective Study

To determine the cardiopulmonary changes in the survivors of acute COVID-19 infection at 3-6 month and 6-12 month. We followed up 53 patients out of which 28 (52%) had mild COVID-19 and 25 (48%) had severe COVID-19. The first follow-up was between 3 month after diagnosis up to 6 month and second follow-up between 6 and 12 month from the date of diagnosis of acute COVID-19. They were monitored using vital parameters, pulmonary function tests, echocardiography and a chest computed tomography (CT) scan. We found improvement in diffusing capacity for carbon monoxide (DLCO) with a median of 52% of predicted and 80% of predicted at the first and second follow-up, respectively. There was improvement in the CTSS in severe group from 22 (18-24) to 12 (10-18; p-0.001). Multivariable logistic regression revealed increased odds of past severe disease with higher CTSS at follow-up (OR-1.7 [CI 1.14-2.77]

Dietary Intake and Rural-Urban Migration in India: A Cross-Sectional Study

BACKGROUND: Migration from rural areas of India contributes to urbanisation and lifestyle change, and dietary changes may increase the risk of obesity and chronic diseases. We tested the hypothesis that rural-to-urban migrants have different macronutrient and food group intake to rural non-migrants, and that migrants have a diet more similar to urban non-migrants. METHODS AND FINDINGS: The diets of migrants of rural origin, their rural dwelling sibs, and those of urban origin together with their urban dwelling sibs were assessed by an interviewer-administered semi-quantitative food frequency questionnaire. A total of 6,509 participants were included. Median energy intake in the rural, migrant and urban groups was 2731, 3078, and 3224 kcal respectively for men, and 2153, 2504, and 2644 kcal for women (p<0.001). A similar trend was seen for overall intake of fat, protein and carbohydrates (p<0.001), though differences in the proportion of energy from these nutrients were <2%. Migrant and urban participants reported up to 80% higher fruit and vegetable intake than rural participants (p<0.001), and up to 35% higher sugar intake (p<0.001). Meat and dairy intake were higher in migrant and urban participants than rural participants (p<0.001), but varied by region. Sibling-pair analyses confirmed these results. There was no evidence of associations with time in urban area. CONCLUSIONS: Rural to urban migration appears to be associated with both positive (higher fruit and vegetables intake) and negative (higher energy and fat intake) dietary changes. These changes may be of relevance to cardiovascular health and warrant public health interventions