Predicting the presence of macrovascular causes in non-traumatic intracerebral haemorrhage : The DIAGRAM prediction score

Objective: A substantial part of non-traumatic intracerebral haemorrhages (ICH) arises from a macrovascular cause, but there is little guidance on selection of patients for additional diagnostic work-up. We aimed to develop and externally validate a model for predicting the probability of a macrovascular cause in patients with non-traumatic ICH. Methods: The DIagnostic AngioGRAphy to find vascular Malformations (DIAGRAM) study (n=298; 69 macrovascular cause; 23%) is a prospective, multicentre study assessing yield and accuracy of CT angiography (CTA), MRI/magnetic resonance angiography (MRA) and intra-arterial catheter angiography in diagnosing macrovascular causes in patients with non-traumatic ICH. We considered prespecified patient and ICH characteristics in multivariable logistic regression analyses as predictors for a macrovascular cause. We combined independent predictors in a model, which we validated in an external cohort of 173 patients with ICH (78 macrovascular cause, 45%). Results: Independent predictors were younger age, lobar or posterior fossa (vs deep) location of ICH, and absence of small vessel disease (SVD). A model that combined these predictors showed good performance in the development data (c-statistic 0.83; 95% C I 0.78 to 0.88) and moderate performance in external validation (c-statistic 0.66; 95% CI 0.58 to 0.74). When CTA results were added, the c-statistic was excellent (0.91; 95% CI 0.88 to 0.94) and good after external validation (0.88; 95% CI 0.83 to 0.94). Predicted probabilities varied from 1% in patients aged 51-70 years with deep ICH and SVD, to more than 50% in patients aged 18-50 years with lobar or posterior fossa ICH without SVD. Conclusion: The DIAGRAM scores help to predict the probability of a macrovascular cause in patients with nontraumatic ICH based on age, ICH location, SVD and CTA

Diagnostic yield and accuracy of CT angiography, MR angiography, and digital subtraction angiography for detection of macrovascular causes of intracerebral haemorrhage : Prospective, multicentre cohort study

Study question What are the diagnostic yield and accuracy of early computed tomography (CT) angiography followed by magnetic resonance imaging/angiography (MRI/MRA) and digital subtraction angiography (DSA) in patients with non-traumatic intracerebral haemorrhage? Methods This prospective diagnostic study enrolled 298 adults (18-70 years) treated in 22 hospitals in the Netherlands over six years. CT angiography was performed within seven days of haemorrhage. If the result was negative, MRI/MRA was performed four to eight weeks later. DSA was performed when the CT angiography or MRI/MRA results were inconclusive or negative. The main outcome was a macrovascular cause, including arteriovenous malformation, aneurysm, dural arteriovenous fistula, and cavernoma. Three blinded neuroradiologists independently evaluated the images for macrovascular causes of haemorrhage. The reference standard was the best available evidence from all findings during one year's follow-up. Study answer and limitations A macrovascular cause was identified in 69 patients (23%). 291 patients (98%) underwent CT angiography; 214 with a negative result underwent additional MRI/MRA and 97 with a negative result for both CT angiography and MRI/MRA underwent DSA. Early CT angiography detected 51 macrovascular causes (yield 17%, 95% confidence interval 13% to 22%). CT angiography with MRI/MRA identified two additional macrovascular causes (18%, 14% to 23%) and these modalities combined with DSA another 15 (23%, 18% to 28%). This last extensive strategy failed to detect a cavernoma, which was identified on MRI during follow-up (reference strategy). The positive predictive value of CT angiography was 72% (60% to 82%), of additional MRI/MRA was 35% (14% to 62%), and of additional DSA was 100% (75% to 100%). None of the patients experienced complications with CT angiography or MRI/MRA; 0.6% of patients who underwent DSA experienced permanent sequelae. Not all patients with negative CT angiography and MRI/MRA results underwent DSA. Although the previous probability of finding a macrovascular cause was lower in patients who did not undergo DSA, some small arteriovenous malformations or dural arteriovenous fistulas may have been missed. What this study adds CT angiography is an appropriate initial investigation to detect macrovascular causes of non-traumatic intracerebral haemorrhage, but accuracy is modest. Additional MRI/MRA may find cavernomas or alternative diagnoses, but DSA is needed to diagnose macrovascular causes undetected by CT angiography or MRI/MRA. Funding, competing interests, data sharing Dutch Heart Foundation and The Netherlands Organisation for Health Research and Development, ZonMw. The authors have no competing interests. Direct requests for additional data to the corresponding author

Predicting the presence of macrovascular causes in non-traumatic intracerebral haemorrhage: The DIAGRAM prediction score

Objective: A substantial part of non-traumatic intracerebral haemorrhages (ICH) arises from a macrovascular cause, but there is little guidance on selection of patients for additional diagnostic work-up. We aimed to develop and externally validate a model for predicting the probability of a macrovascular cause in patients with non-traumatic ICH. Methods: The DIagnostic AngioGRAphy to find vascular Malformations (DIAGRAM) study (n=298; 69 macrovascular cause; 23%) is a prospective, multicentre study assessing yield and accuracy of CT angiography (CTA), MRI/magnetic resonance angiography (MRA) and intra-arterial catheter angiography in diagnosing macrovascular causes in patients with non-traumatic ICH. We considered prespecified patient and ICH characteristics in multivariable logistic regression analyses as predictors for a macrovascular cause. We combined independent predictors in a model, which we validated in an external cohort of 173 patients with ICH (78 macrovascular cause, 45%). Results: Independent predictors were younger age, lobar or posterior fossa (vs deep) location of ICH, and absence of small vessel disease (SVD). A model that combined these predictors showed good performance in the development data (c-statistic 0.83; 95% C I 0.78 to 0.88) and moderate performance in external validation (c-statistic 0.66; 95% CI 0.58 to 0.74). When CTA results were added, the c-statistic was excellent (0.91; 95% CI 0.88 to 0.94) and good after external validation (0.88; 95% CI 0.83 to 0.94). Predicted probabilities varied from 1% in patients aged 51-70 years with deep ICH and SVD, to more than 50% in patients aged 18-50 years with lobar or posterior fossa ICH without SVD. Conclusion: The DIAGRAM scores help to predict the probability of a macrovascular cause in patients with nontraumatic ICH based on age, ICH location, SVD and CTA