Gaussian process nowcasting: application to COVID-19 mortality reporting

Updating observations of a signal due to the delays in the measurement process is a common problem in signal processing, with prominent examples in a wide range of fields. An important example of this problem is the nowcasting of COVID-19 mortality: given a stream of reported counts of daily deaths, can we correct for the delays in reporting to paint an accurate picture of the present, with uncertainty? Without this correction, raw data will often mislead by suggesting an improving situation. We present a flexible approach using a latent Gaussian process that is capable of describing the changing auto-correlation structure present in the reporting time-delay surface. This approach also yields robust estimates of uncertainty for the estimated nowcasted numbers of deaths. We test assumptions in model specification such as the choice of kernel or hyper priors, and evaluate model performance on a challenging real dataset from Brazil. Our experiments show that Gaussian process nowcasting performs favourably against both comparable methods, and against a small sample of expert human predictions. Our approach has substantial practical utility in disease modelling -- by applying our approach to COVID-19 mortality data from Brazil, where reporting delays are large, we can make informative predictions on important epidemiological quantities such as the current effective reproduction number

EFEKTIVITAS DESENTRALISASI PENDIDIKAN DALAM MENINGKATKAN PROFESIONALISME GURU DI SMA NEGERI 1 LAKEA

Skripsi ini membahas tentang efektivitas desentralisasi pendidikan dalammeningkatkan profesionalisme guru di SMA Negeri 1 Lakea dengan pokok pembahasana bagaimana deskripsi desentralisasi pendidikan dalam meningkatkan profesionalisme guru di SMA Negeri 1 Lakea? dan bagaimana implikasi desentralisasi pendidikan dalam meningkatkan profesionalisme guru di SMA Negeri 1 Lakea. Tujuan penelitian ini untuk mengetahuideskripsi dan implikasi desentralisasi pendidikan dalam meningkatkan prodfesionalisme guru di sekolah tersebut.Untuk menjawab permsalahan tersebut, penelitian ini menggunakan metode kualitatif dengan teknik pengumpulan data melalui observasi, wawancara dan dokumentasi, serta menggunakan teknik analisis data melalui reduksi data, penyajian data, verifikasi data dan penarikan kesimpulan.Hasil penelitian skripsi ini yaitu: deskripsi Desentralisasi Pendidikan dalam Meningkatkan Profesionalisme Guru di SMA Negeri 1 Lakea: (1) Desentralisasi pendidikan merupakan pemberian kewenangan kepada daerah untuk mengelola pendidikannya, lalu daerah melimpahkan kepada masing-masing sekolah (2) Pemerintah pusat tetap mengontrol pendidikan yang diselenggarakan oleh pemerintah daerah dan masing-masing sekolah melalui akreditasi nasional yang dilaksanakan oleh BAN-SM (3) Aspek-aspek yang menjadi kewenangan sekolah dalam melaksanakan desentralisai pendidikan yakni: (a) Perencanaan dan evaluasi program sekolah dalam hal ini sekolah berupaya meningkatkan mutu pendidikan dengan cara merencanakan kegiatan-kegiatan yang dapat meningkatkan profesionalisme guru, misalnya mengutus guru untuk mengikuti Musyawarah Guru Mata Pelajaran (MGMP) dan merencanakan bimbingan teknis untuk meningkatkan keterampilan guru dan mengevaluasi berbagai perencaan kegiatan program sekolah (b) Aspek pengelolaan proses belajar, memberikan kewenangan kepada masing-masing guru untuk mengelola proses pembelajaran pada mata pelajaran yang dipegangnya dan kepala sekolah melukan supervisi kepada guru untuk mengevaluasi dan membimbing pelaksanaan proses pembelajaran guru tersebut (c) Aspek pengelolaan ketenagaan, SMA Negeri 1 Lakea mengelola 25 orang guru dan 3 orang tenaga administrasi, pengelolaan yang dilakukan misalnya memberikan guru mata pelajaran yang sesuai dengan keahliannya, dan mengutus guru sebagai perwakilannya dalam kegiatan seminar mapun workshop (d) Aspek pengelolaan keuangan, sekolah mengelola dana BOS dengan prosedur sesuai dengan aturan penggunaan dana tersebut yakni sebagai operasional sekolah, misalnya mengupayakan pembayaran honor guru honorer yang tidak pernah terlambat dibayarkan. Implikasi Desentralisasi Pendidikan dalam Meningkatkan Profesionalisme Guru di SMA Negeri 1 Lakea: (1) Program sekolah dalam meningkatkan profesionalisme dapat terlaksana dengan baik (2) Masing-masing guru berupaya meningkatkan pengelolaan proses belajarnya sebagai implikasi dari pelaksanaan supervisi (3) Sekolah memiliki tenaga pendidik sesuai dengan kebutuhan dan (4) Pengelolaan keuangan yang dilaksanakan oleh sekolah dapat memotivasi guru untuk melaksanakan tugasnya dengan baik.Kata Kunci        :    Desentralisasi pendidikan, profesionalisme gur

Report 46: Factors driving extensive spatial and temporal fluctuations in COVID-19 fatality rates in Brazilian hospitals.

The SARS-CoV-2 Gamma variant spread rapidly across Brazil, causing substantial infection and death waves. We use individual-level patient records following hospitalisation with suspected or confirmed COVID-19 to document the extensive shocks in hospital fatality rates that followed Gamma's spread across 14 state capitals, and in which more than half of hospitalised patients died over sustained time periods. We show that extensive fluctuations in COVID-19 in-hospital fatality rates also existed prior to Gamma's detection, and were largely transient after Gamma's detection, subsiding with hospital demand. Using a Bayesian fatality rate model, we find that the geographic and temporal fluctuations in Brazil's COVID-19 in-hospital fatality rates are primarily associated with geographic inequities and shortages in healthcare capacity. We project that approximately half of Brazil's COVID-19 deaths in hospitals could have been avoided without pre-pandemic geographic inequities and without pandemic healthcare pressure. Our results suggest that investments in healthcare resources, healthcare optimization, and pandemic preparedness are critical to minimize population wide mortality and morbidity caused by highly transmissible and deadly pathogens such as SARS-CoV-2, especially in low- and middle-income countries. NOTE: The following manuscript has appeared as 'Report 46 - Factors driving extensive spatial and temporal fluctuations in COVID-19 fatality rates in Brazilian hospitals' at https://spiral.imperial.ac.uk:8443/handle/10044/1/91875 . ONE SENTENCE SUMMARY: COVID-19 in-hospital fatality rates fluctuate dramatically in Brazil, and these fluctuations are primarily associated with geographic inequities and shortages in healthcare capacity

Biofortified red mottled beans (Phaseolus vulgaris L.) in a maize and bean diet provide more bioavailable iron than standard red mottled beans: Studies in poultry (Gallus gallus) and an in vitro digestion/Caco-2 model

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Our objective was to compare the capacities of biofortified and standard colored beans to deliver iron (Fe) for hemoglobin synthesis. Two isolines of large-seeded, red mottled Andean beans (<it>Phaseolus vulgaris </it>L.), one standard ("Low Fe") and the other biofortified ("High Fe") in Fe (49 and 71 μg Fe/g, respectively) were used. This commercial class of red mottled beans is the preferred varietal type for most of the Caribbean and Eastern and Southern Africa where almost three quarters of a million hectares are grown. Therefore it is important to know the affect of biofortification of these beans on diets that simulate human feeding studies.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Maize-based diets containing the beans were formulated to meet the nutrient requirements for broiler except for Fe (Fe concentrations in the 2 diets were 42.9 ± 1.2 and 54.6 ± 0.9 mg/kg). One day old chicks (<it>Gallus gallus</it>) were allocated to the experimental diets (n = 12). For 4 wk, hemoglobin, feed-consumption and body-weights were measured.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Hemoglobin maintenance efficiencies (HME) (means ± SEM) were different between groups on days 14 and 21 of the experiment (P < 0.05). Final total body hemoglobin Fe contents were different between the standard (12.58 ± 1.0 mg {0.228 ± 0.01 μmol}) and high Fe (15.04 ± 0.65 mg {0.273 ± 0.01 μmol}) bean groups (P < 0.05). At the end of the experiment, tissue samples were collected from the intestinal duodenum and liver for further analyses. Divalent-metal-transporter-1, duodenal-cytochrome-B, and ferroportin expressions were higher and liver ferritin was lower (P < 0.05) in the standard group vs. the biofortified group. <it>In-vitro </it>analysis showed lower iron bioavailability in cells exposed to standard ("Low Fe") bean based diet.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>We conclude that the <it>in-vivo </it>results support the <it>in-vitro </it>observations; biofortified colored beans contain more bioavailable-iron than standard colored beans. In addition, biofortified beans seems to be a promising vehicle for increasing intakes of bioavailable Fe in human populations that consume these beans as a dietary staple. This justifies further work on the large-seeded Andean beans which are the staple of a large-region of Africa where iron-deficiency anemia is a primary cause of infant death and poor health status.</p

The effect of early pregnancy following chemotherapy on disease relapse and foetal outcome in women treated for gestational trophoblastic tumours

Little literature exists on the safety of early pregnancy following chemotherapy. Here we assess the rate of relapse and foetal outcome in women who have completed single and multi-agent chemotherapy for gestational trophoblastic tumours. The records of 1532 patients treated for persistent gestational trophoblastic tumours at Charing Cross Hospital between 1969 and 1998 were reviewed. Patients were defined as receiving single agent or multi-agent treatment. Relapse rates and foetal outcome were reviewed in the 230 patients who became pregnant within 12 months of completing chemotherapy. In the single agent group 153 (22%) of 691 patients conceived early. Three subsequently relapsed. In the multi-agent group, 77 (10%) of 779 patients conceived early, two then relapsed. Relapse rates were 2% (3 out of 153) and 2.5% (2 out of 77) for each group compared to 5% and 5.6% in the comparative non-pregnant groups. Outcomes of 230 early pregnancies: 164 (71%) delivered at full term, 35 (15%) terminations, 26 (11%) spontaneous abortions, three (1.3%) new hydatidiform moles and two (1%) stillbirths. Early pregnancies were more common in the single agent group (P<0.001), but spontaneous miscarriages and terminations were more likely to occur in the multi-agent group (P=0.04 and 0.03, respectively). Of the full-term pregnancies, three (1.8%) babies were born with congenital abnormalities. Patients in either group who conceive within 12 months of completing chemotherapy are not at increased risk of relapse. Though, we still advise avoiding pregnancy within 12 months of completing chemotherapy, those that do conceive can be reassured of a likely favourable outcome

Connecting Health and Technology (CHAT): protocol of a randomized controlled trial to improve nutrition behaviours using mobile devices and tailored text messaging in young adults

Background: Increasing intakes of fruits and vegetables intake, in tandem with reducing consumption of energy-dense and nutrient poor foods and beverages are dietary priorities to prevent chronic disease. Although most adults do not eat enough fruit and vegetables, teenagers and young adults tend to have the lowest intakes. Young adults typically consume a diet which is inconsistent with the dietary recommendations. Yet little is known about the best approaches to improve dietary intakes and behaviours among this group. This randomised controlled trial aims to evaluate the effectiveness of using a mobile device to assess dietary intake, provide tailored dietary feedback and text messages to motivate changes in fruit, vegetable and junk food consumption among young adults