Estimating the risk of rabies transmission to humans in the U.S.: a delphi analysis

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>In the United States, the risk of rabies transmission to humans in most situations of possible exposure is unknown. Controlled studies on rabies are clearly not possible. Thus, the limited data on risk has led to the frequent administration of rabies post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP), often in inappropriate circumstances.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We used the Delphi method to obtain an expert group consensus estimate of the risk of rabies transmission to humans in seven scenarios of potential rabies exposure. We also surveyed and discussed the merits of recommending rabies PEP for each scenario.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The median risk of rabies transmission without rabies PEP for a bite exposure by a skunk, bat, cat, and dog was estimated to be 0.05, 0.001, 0.001, and 0.00001, respectively. Rabies PEP was unanimously recommended in these scenarios. However, rabies PEP was overwhelmingly not recommended for non-bite exposures (e.g. dog licking hand but unavailable for subsequent testing), estimated to have less than 1 in 1,000,000 (0.000001) risk of transmission.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Our results suggest that there are many common situations in which the risk of rabies transmission is so low that rabies PEP should not be recommended. These risk estimates also provide a key parameter for cost-effective models of human rabies prevention and can be used to educate health professionals about situation-specific administration of rabies PEP.</p

Shareholder activism in the UK: types of activists, forms of activism, and their impact on a target’s performance

Considering the recent rapid expansion of shareholder activism phenomenon in the United Kingdom (UK) and the vast amount of resources committed to it by corporations, government and investors, its effectiveness has become a crucial subject for investigation. This article analyzes organizational outcomes of shareholder activism in the UK. This research is based on a unique comprehensive database of shareholder activism events during the period of 1998–2008. We provide a detailed account of different types of activists, activism strategies and shareholder demands associated with the events of activism. Our findings show that the effectiveness of shareholder activism in terms of abnormal stock-market returns varies dramatically depending on its form, type of investor and the nature of investor proposals

“Probability of risk aversion” and other applications of derivatives of the certainty equivalent

Utility theory, Certainty equivalent, Risk aversion, Self-protection, Insurance, Properness, D11, D81, G22,

OR as rational choice: a decision and game theory perspective

Social science disciplines have used decision theory and game theory to provide metaphorical understanding and analytical rigour in their particular domains. The paper explores whether a similar perspective can be applied to operational research (OR) in order to provide an integrating theme for both theory and practice. It is argued that, while the methods of OR are instrumentally rational, OR interventions embrace non-instrumental aspects as well. A case study of an application of decision theory is described and analysed from a decision and game theory (DGT) perspective. The case demonstrates that although the model developed was instrumental, the structure and content of the model reflected the normative and communicative aspects of the decision context. The paper concludes that OR could use a DGT perspective as a conceptual framework for the teaching, research and practice of OR. Journal of the Operational Research Society (2010) 61, 1761-1776. doi:10.1057/jors.2009.146 Published online 2 December 200

Predictive accuracy of population viability analysis in conservation biology

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Discount rates, social judgments, individuals’ risk preferences, and uncertainty

Discount rate, Risk preferences, Policy assessment under uncertainty, Climate policy, D63, D81, H43, Q54, Q58,

Information and political failures: to what extent does rational ignorance explain irrational beliefs formation?

Rational ignorance, Beliefs, Pressure group, Political failures, Irrationality, DO3, D83, D72,