Helmholtz solitons in power-law optical materials

A nonlinear Helmholtz equation for optical materials with regimes of power-law type of nonlinearity is proposed. This model captures broad beam evolution at any angle with respect to the reference direction in a wide range of media, including some semiconductors, doped glasses and liquid crystals. Novel exact analytical soliton solutions are presented for a generic nonlinearity, within which known Kerr solitons comprise a subset. Three conservation laws are also reported and numerical simulations examine the stability of the Helmholtz power-law solitons. These simulations have led to the identification of a new propagation feature associated with spatial solitons in power-law media, constituting a new class of oscillatory solution

Demographic buffering and compensatory recruitment promotes the persistence of disease in a wildlife population.

Published onlineLETTERDemographic buffering allows populations to persist by compensating for fluctuations in vital rates, including disease-induced mortality. Using long-term data on a badger (Meles meles Linnaeus, 1758) population naturally infected with Mycobacterium bovis, we built an integrated population model to quantify impacts of disease, density and environmental drivers on survival and recruitment. Badgers exhibit a slow life-history strategy, having high rates of adult survival with low variance, and low but variable rates of recruitment. Recruitment exhibited strong negative density-dependence, but was not influenced by disease, while adult survival was density independent but declined with increasing prevalence of diseased individuals. Given that reproductive success is not depressed by disease prevalence, density-dependent recruitment of cubs is likely to compensate for disease-induced mortality. This combination of slow life history and compensatory recruitment promotes the persistence of a naturally infected badger population and helps to explain the badger's role as a persistent reservoir of M. bovis.NERCUK Department of Environment, Food and Rural Affair

Density and abundance of badger social groups in England and Wales in 2011-2013

This is the final version of the article. Available from Nature Publishing Group via the DOI in this record.In the United Kingdom, European badgers Meles meles are a protected species and an important wildlife reservoir of bovine tuberculosis. We conducted a survey of badger dens (main setts) in 1614 1 km squares across England and Wales, between November 2011 and March 2013. Using main setts as a proxy for badger social groups, the estimated mean density of badger social groups in England and Wales was 0.485 km(-2) (95% confidence interval 0.449-0.521) and the estimated abundance of social groups was 71,600 (66,400-76,900). In the 25 years since the first survey in 1985-88, the annual rate of increase in the estimated number of badger social groups was 2.6% (2.2-2.9%), equating to an 88% (70-105%) increase across England and Wales. In England, we estimate there has been an increase of 103% (83-123%) in badger social groups, while in Wales there has been little change (-25 to +49%).We are grateful to the thousands of landowners for their kind co-operation in granting access to their land. This study was funded by the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, as part of England and Wales national research activities. Fieldwork was conducted by staff of the National Wildlife Management Centre. Access to data from the 1985–88 survey was licensed by the Joint Nature Conservation Committee, to whom the rights of the Nature Conservancy Council had passed

Cu-Ni-PGE mineralisation at the Aurora Project and potential for a new PGE province in the Northern Bushveld Main Zone

This is the final version of the article. Available from Elsevier via the DOI in this record.he Aurora Project is a Cu-Ni-PGE magmatic sulphide deposit in the northern limb of the Bushveld Complex of South Africa. Since 1992 mining in the northern limb has focussed on the Platreef deposit, located along the margin of the complex. Aurora has previously been suggested to represent a far-northern facies of the Platreef located along the basal margin of the complex and this study provides new data with which to test this assertion. In contrast to the Platreef, the base metal sulphide mineralisation at Aurora is both Cu-rich (Ni/Cu 50,000) reflecting the preferential removal of Pd over Cu in the sulphides below. Similarly high Cu/Pd ratios characterise the Upper Main Zone in the northern limb above the pigeonite + orthopyroxene interval and suggest that Aurora-style sulphide mineralisation may be developed here as well. The same mineralogy and geochemical features also appear to be present in the T Zone of the Waterberg PGE deposit, located under younger cover rocks to the north of Aurora. If these links are proved they indicate the potential for a previously unsuspected zone of Cu-Ni-PGE mineralisation extending for over 40 km along strike through the Upper Main Zone of the northern Bushveld.Sulphur isotope analyses were carried out by Alison MacDonald at the Scottish Universities Environmental Research Centre as part of NERC Isotope Geoscience Facilities Committee award IP/909/0506. HSRH is sponsored by the Claude Leon Foundation

Abundance of badgers (Meles meles) in England and Wales

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available on open accessfrom the publisher via the DOI in this recordThe European badger (Meles meles) is of considerable interest in the UK as it is both a protected species and the main wildlife reservoir for bovine tuberculosis infection in cattle. While there have been three national badger surveys in the 1980s, 1990s and 2011-13, using the number of badger main setts as a proxy for the abundance of badger social groups, none has combined contemporary data on social group size at landscape and national scales. We estimated social group size by genotyping hair samples collected at 120 main setts across England and Wales and employing a capture-mark-recapture method based on genotypes. The estimated mean social group size in England and Wales was 6.74 (±0.63) badgers. There was considerable variation in badger social group size among Land Class Groups (LCGs), with a low of 2.67 in LCG3 and a high of 7.92 in LCG4. Combining these results with the recent Badger Sett Survey of England and Wales, we estimate there are approximately 485,000 badgers (95% confidence intervals 391,000-581,000) in England and Wales. Although direct comparison with previous estimates is not ideal owing to methodological differences, our results are consistent with a marked increase in the badger population of England and Wales since the 1980s.This study was funded by the Department for the Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, as part of their England and Wales national research activities

Characterization of potential superspreader farms for bovine tuberculosis: A review

This is the final version. Available on open access from Wiley via the DOI in this recordBACKGROUND: Variation in host attributes that influence their contact rates and infectiousness can lead some individuals to make disproportionate contributions to the spread of infections. Understanding the roles of such 'superspreaders' can be crucial in deciding where to direct disease surveillance and controls to greatest effect. In the epidemiology of bovine tuberculosis (bTB) in Great Britain, it has been suggested that a minority of cattle farms or herds might make disproportionate contributions to the spread of Mycobacterium bovis, and hence might be considered 'superspreader farms'. OBJECTIVES AND METHODS: We review the literature to identify the characteristics of farms that have the potential to contribute to exceptional values in the three main components of the farm reproductive number - Rf : contact rate, infectiousness and duration of infectiousness, and therefore might characterize potential superspreader farms for bovine tuberculosis in Great Britain. RESULTS: Farms exhibit marked heterogeneity in contact rates arising from between-farm trading of cattle. A minority of farms act as trading hubs that greatly augment connections within cattle trading networks. Herd infectiousness might be increased by high within-herd transmission or the presence of supershedding individuals, or infectiousness might be prolonged due to undetected infections or by repeated local transmission, via wildlife or fomites. CONCLUSIONS: Targeting control methods on putative superspreader farms might yield disproportionate benefits in controlling endemic bovine tuberculosis in Great Britain. However, real-time identification of any such farms, and integration of controls with industry practices, present analytical, operational and policy challenges.Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BBSRC)Animal and Plant Health Agenc

Contact chains of cattle farms in Great Britain

This is the final version. Available from the publisher via the DOI in this record.Further information and figures supporting this article have been uploaded as part of the electronic supplementary material. Underlying data consist of every movement of cattle between all farms in Great Britain. Aside from the size of the dataset, there are substantial issues of confidentiality (locations, trading practices) and commercial sensitivity in these data. They are collated and managed by Defra, via the Animal and Plant Health Agency, who grant access to the data with specific permissions for specific studies. In practice, this means that the data can be used for the stated purpose only, and making the data publicly accessible would not conform to the licence the authors have been granted to use these data. With the agreement of the journal’s Editorial Office, the authors will not be able to make the dataset available on this occasion, but encourage readers, referees and editors to contact the Animal and Plant Health Agency data manager for data access requests. At the time of submission, the data manager is Andy Mitchell ([email protected])Network analyses can assist in predicting the course of epidemics. Time-directed paths or ‘contact chains’ provide a measure of hostconnectedness across specified timeframes, and so represent potential pathways for spread of infections with different epidemiological characteristics. We analysed networks and contact chains of cattle farms in Great Britain using Cattle Tracing System data from 2001 to 2015. We focused on the potential for between-farm transmission of bovine tuberculosis, a chronic infection with potential for hidden spread through the network. Networks were characterized by scale-free type properties, where individual farms were found to be influential ‘hubs’ in the network. We found a markedly bimodal distribution of farms with either small or very large ingoing and outgoing contact chains (ICCs and OCCs). As a result of their cattle purchases within 12-month periods, 47% of British farms were connected by ICCs to more than 1000 other farms and 16% were connected to more than 10 000 other farms. As a result of their cattle sales within 12-month periods, 66% of farms had OCCs that reached more than 1000 other farms and 15% reached more than 10 000 other farms. Over 19 000 farms had both ICCs and OCCs reaching more than 10 000 farms for two or more years. While farms with more contacts in their ICCs or OCCs might play an important role in disease spread, farms with extensive ICCs and OCCs might be particularly important by being at higher risk of both acquiring and disseminatinginfections.Biotechnology and Biological Science Research Council (BBSRC

Bait uptake by wild badgers and its implications for oral vaccination against tuberculosis

This is the final version. Available from Public Library of Science via the DOI in this record.Data Availability: All relevant data are within the paper and its Supporting Information files.The deployment of baits containing vaccines or toxins has been used successfully in the management of wildlife populations, including for disease control. Optimisation of deployment strategies seeks to maximise uptake by the targeted population whilst ensuring cost-effectiveness. Tuberculosis (TB) caused by infection with Mycobacterium bovis affects a broad range of mammalian hosts across the globe, including cattle, wildlife and humans. The control of TB in cattle in the UK and Republic of Ireland is hampered by persistent infection in European badgers (Meles meles). The present study aimed to determine the best strategy for maximising uptake of an oral vaccine by wild badgers, using a surrogate novel bait deployed at 40 badger social groups. Baits contained a blood-borne biomarker (Iophenoxic Acid, IPA) in order to measure consumption in badgers subsequently cage trapped at targeted setts. Evidence for the consumption of bait was found in 83% (199/240) of captured badgers. The probability that badgers had consumed at least one bait (IPA >10 μg ml-1) was significantly higher following deployment in spring than in summer. Lower uptake amongst social groups where more badgers were captured, suggested competition for baits. The probability of bait consumption was significantly higher at groups where main and outlier setts were provided with baits than at those where outliers were present but not baited. Badgers captured 10–14 days post bait feeding had significantly higher levels of bait uptake compared to those caught 24–28 days later. Uptake rates did not vary significantly in relation to badger age and whether bait was placed above ground or down setts. This study suggests that high levels of bait uptake can be achieved in wild badger populations and identifies factors influencing the potential success of different deployment strategies. The implications for the development of an oral badger vaccine are discussed.Natural Environment Research Council (NERC)Animal and Plant Health Agency (APHA

Line versus Flux Statistics -- Considerations for the Low Redshift Lyman-alpha Forest

The flux/transmission power spectrum has become a popular statistical tool in studies of the high redshift ($z > 2$) Lyman-alpha forest. At low redshifts, where the forest has thinned out into a series of well-isolated absorption lines, the motivation for flux statistics is less obvious. Here, we study the relative merits of flux versus line correlations, and derive a simple condition under which one is favored over the other on purely statistical grounds. Systematic errors probably play an important role in this discussion, and they are outlined as well.Comment: 6 pages, to appear in "The IGM/Galaxy Connection: The Distribution of Baryons at z=0", eds. J. L. Rosenberg and M. E. Putma

The application of statistical network models in disease research

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Wiley via the DOI in this record.Host social structure is fundamental to how infections spread and persist, and so the statistical modelling of static and dynamic social networks provides an invaluable tool to parameterise realistic epidemiological models. We present a practical guide to the application of network modelling frameworks for hypothesis testing related to social interactions and epidemiology, illustrating some approaches with worked examples using data from a population of wild European badgers Meles meles naturally infected with bovine tuberculosis. Different empirical network datasets generate particular statistical issues related to non-independence and sampling constraints. We therefore discuss the strengths and weaknesses of modelling approaches for different types of network data and for answering different questions relating to disease transmission. We argue that statistical modelling frameworks designed specifically for network analysis offer great potential in directly relating network structure to infection. They have the potential to be powerful tools in analysing empirical contact data used in epidemiological studies, but remain untested for use in networks of spatio-temporal associations. As a result, we argue that developments in the statistical analysis of empirical contact data are critical given the ready availability of dynamic network data from bio-logging studies. Furthermore, we encourage improved integration of statistical network approaches into epidemiological research to facilitate the generation of novel modelling frameworks and help extend our understanding of disease transmission in natural populations.M.J.S. is funded by a NERC standard grant (NE/M004546/1) awarded to R.A.M., D.P.C., D.J.H. and M.B., with the APHA team at Woodchester Park, UK (lead scientist is R.J.D.) as project partners