The prediction of the coronary heart disease mortality as a function of major risk factors in over 30.000 men in the Italian RIFLE Pooling Project. A comparison with the MRFIT Primary Screenees.

BACKGROUND: Few risk functions for the prediction of coronary heart disease mortality have been produced in Italy. This study used a large population sample to evaluate the effect of major risk factors on coronary mortality. METHODS: Coronary deaths in 45 cohorts of men (n = 31317, aged 30-69 years) were studied and related to selected cardiovascular risk factors. RESULTS: After 6 years, 1089 men had died, of whom 239 were coronary fatalities. Univariate and multivariate (Cox model) analyses conducted on each age group (30-39, 40-49, 50-59, and 60-69 years) showed a positive association between coronary deaths and systolic blood pressure, serum cholesterol level and cigarette smoking, with few exceptions. A multiple logistic model was produced for men aged 35-57 years, assessing the role of age, serum cholesterol, cigarettes smoked per day and diastolic instead of systolic blood pressure, using the same endpoint as that employed in a similar model published from the analysis of MRFIT primary screenees in the USA to facilitate valid comparison. The coefficients in the present study were similar to those in the US cohort: no statistically significant differences could be detected when comparing the pairs of coefficients. CONCLUSION: Coefficients relating cholesterol, blood pressure and cigarette smoking to coronary mortality in Italian men are similar to those in American men from the same age groups

Role of body mass index in the prediction of all cause mortality in over 62000 men and women. The Italian RIFLE Pooling Project.

STUDY OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the relation of body mass index (BMI) to short-term mortality in a large Italian population sample. DESIGN: Within the Italian RIFLE pooling project, BMI was measured in 47 population samples made of 32,741 men and 30,305 women ages 20-69 years (young 20-44, mature 45-69). Data on mortality were collected for the next six years. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Age adjusted death rates in quintile classes of BMI and Cox proportional hazards models with six year all causes mortality as end point, BMI as covariate and age, smoking, systolic blood pressure as possible confounders were computed. Multivariate analysis was tested in all subjects and after the exclusion of smokers, early (first two years) deaths, and both categories. RESULTS: The univariate analysis failed to demonstrate in all cases a U or inverse J shaped relation. The Cox coefficients for the linear and quadratic terms of BMI proved significant for both young and mature women. The minimum of the curve was located at 27.0 (24.0, 30.0, 95% confidence limits, CL) and 31.8 (25.5, 38.2, 95% CL) units of BMI, for young and mature women respectively. Similar findings were obtained even when exclusion were performed. No relation was found for young men while for mature adult men only the model for all subjects retained significant curvilinear relation (minimum 29.3; 22.4, 36.2, 95% CL). CONCLUSION: These uncommon high values of BMI carrying the minimum risk of death seems to be in contrast with weight guidelines. A confirmation of these findings in other population groups might induce the consideration of changes in the suggested healthy values of BMI

Sindrome X: prevalence in a large population based study.

Much interest has been devoted to a cluster of metabolic abnormalities including impaired glucose metabolism, high blood pressure, low HDL cholesterol and high triglycerides, defined as Syndrome X, and its role as a potential important risk factor for cardiovascular disease. However, limited information exists about the prevalence of this cluster of metabolic abnormalities in population-based studies. A large cohort of men and women (24,798 men and 20,558 women), age 20-69, participants in a series of epidcmiological investigations, were pooled. Estimates of the prevalence of Syndrome X and the individual factors comprising this cluster of metabolic abnormalities were calculated according to gender and age gronps.The majority of participants at baseline presented one or more of the metabolic abnormalities, ie, elevated blood levels of glucose, triglycerides, high blood pressure, lower levels of high density lipoproteins. However, the prevalence of the full cluster (Syndrome X) of metabolic abnormalities was low in the population as a whole, with only 2.4% of men and 3.1% of women exhibiting the full Syndrome X. These data from a large population-based epidemiological investigation indicate that the presence of a full cluster of metabolic abnormalities from Syndrome X is limited. The majority of individuals present elevation in any one or two of the metabolic abnormalities. The notion of the cluster of metabolic abnormalities (Syndrome X) should not distract our attention from established individual risk factors that have been proven to be major causes of cardiovascular death and disability in our society. ©1997, Medikal Press

Electrocardiographic Minnesota code findings predicting short-term mortality in asymptomatic subjects. The italian RIFLE pooling project (risk factors and life expectancy).

Aim of the study was to analyze the predictive power on short term mortality of electrocardiographic findings in asymptomatic subjects belonging to samples of the general population. In the Italian RIFLE Pooling Project (Risk Factors and Life Expectancy) 12 180 men and 10 373 women aged 30 to 69 years had a resting electrocardiogram (ECG) recorded at baseline examination. All of them were free from clinically symptomatic heart disease and represented 23 cohorts spread all over Italy. ECGs were read by the Minnesota Code using 5 large categories of abnormalities, i.e. Q-QS abnormalities, ST-T abnormalities, high R. waves, major arrhythmias, and blocks. Some clinically relevant ECG combination of abnormalities were also analyzed. Six-year mortality from coronary heart disease (CHD), cardiovascular diseases (CVD) and all-cause mortality (ALL) were the end-point. Those ECG findings were relatively common and covered the majority (80 to 90%) of all abnormalities found in the general population before excluding subjects with symptomatic heart disease. Most ECG findings on most occasions were associated with an excess mortality from the three end-points in both men and women and among relatively young (age 30-49) and mature (age 50-69) adults. The strongest predictor of fatal events were Q-QS items and blocks. The most consistent predictors were ST-T findings, although this was true for men and not for women. Relative risk against the absence of abnormalities (one by one and all together) were adjusted by multivariate analysis feeding in the models some possible confounders, i.e. age, systolic blood pressure, serum cholesterol, cigarette consumption and body mass index. Relative risks in cells with more than 20 events (cells being separately made by men, women, the 5 ECG findings categories and the 3 end-points) were ranging 1.00 to 9.88 for Q-QS abnormalities, 1.03 to 3.76 for ST-T abnormalities, 1.28 to 5.14 for high R waves, 0.81 to 2.28 for arrhythmias and 0.79 to 3.59 for blocks. Most of these relative risks were statistically significant. Combinations of clinically relevant ECG findings in the same individual (LVH, possible and definite myocardial infarction) were rare but carried a severe prognosis with high and statistically significant relative risks among men (ranging between 3.19 and 7.24) while they could not be properly tested in most cells for women due to the small numbers involved. It is concluded that in the general population high rates of prevalent ignored ECG abnormalities in asymptomatic subjects are associated with significant excess mortality from CHD, CVD and all-cause mortality, suggesting a high prevalence of silent heart disease