Targeting targeted agents: open issues for clinical trial design

Molecularly targeted agents for the treatment of solid tumors had entered the market in the last 5 years, with a great impact upon both the scientific community and the society. Many randomized phase III trials conducted in recent years with new targeted agents, despite previous data coming from preclinical research and from phase II trials were often promising, have produced disappointingly negative results. Some other trials have actually met their primary endpoint, demonstrating a statistically significant result favouring the experimental treatment. Unfortunately, with a few relevant exceptions, this advantage is often small, if not negligible, in absolute terms. The difference between statistical significance and clinical relevance should always be considered when translating clinical trials' results in the practice. The reason why this 'revolution' did not significantly impact on cancer treatment to displace chemotherapy from the patient' bedside is in part due to complicated, and in many cases, unknown, mechanisms of action of such drugs; indeed, the traditional way the clinical investigators were used to test the efficacy of 'older' chemotherapeutics, has become 'out of date' from the methodological perspective. As these drugs should be theoretically tailored upon featured bio-markers expressed by the patients, the clinical trial design should follow new rules based upon stronger hypotheses than those developed so far. Indeed, the early phases of basic and clinical drug development are crucial in the correct process which is able to correctly identify the target (when present). Targeted trial designs can result in easier studies, with less, better selected, and supported by stronger proofs of response evidences, patients, in order to not waste time and resources

Stopping rules employing response rates, time to progression, and early progressive disease for phase II oncology trials

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Response rate (RR), the most common early means of assessing oncology drugs, is not suitable as the sole endpoint for phase II trials of drugs which induce disease stability but not regression. Time to progression (TTP) may be more sensitive to such agents, but induces recruitment delays in multistage studies. Early progressive disease (EPD) is the earliest signal of time to progression, but is less intuitive to investigators, To study drugs with unknown anti-tumour effect, we designed the Combination Stopping Rule (CSR), which allows investigators to establish a hypothesis using RR and TTP, while the program also employs early progressive disease (EPD) to assess for drug inactivity during the first stage of study accrual.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A computer program was created to generate stopping rules based on specified error rates, trial size, and RR and median TTP of interest and disinterest for a two-stage phase II trial. Rules were generated for stage II such that the null hypothesis (<it>H</it>_nul) was rejected if either RR or TTP met desired thresholds, and accepted if both did not. Assuming an exponential distribution for progression, EPD thresholds were determined based on specified TTP values. Stopping rules were generated for stage I such that <it>H</it>_nulwas accepted and the study stopped if both RR and EPD were unacceptable.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Patient thresholds were generated for RR, median TTP, and EPD which achieved specified error rates and which allowed early stopping based on RR and EPD. For smaller proportional differences between interesting and disinteresting values of RR or TTP, larger trials are required to maintain alpha error, and early stopping is more common with a larger first stage.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Stopping rules are provided for phase II trials for drugs which have either a desirable RR or TTP. In addition, early stopping can be achieved using RR and EPD.</p