International financial adjustment

The paper proposes a unified framework to study the dynamics of net foreign assets and exchange rate movements. We show that deteriorations in a country's net exports or net foreign asset position have to be matched either by future net export growth (trade adjustment channel) or by future increases in the returns of the net foreign asset portfolio (hitherto unexplored financial adjustment channel). Using a newly constructed data set on US gross foreign positions, we find that stabilizing valuation effects contribute as much as 31% of the external adjustment. Our theory also has asset pricing implications. Deviations from trend of the ratio of net exports to net foreign assets predict net foreign asset portfolio returns one quarter to two years ahead and net exports at longer horizons. The exchange rate affects the trade balance and the valuation of net foreign assets. It is forecastable in and out of sample at one quarter and beyond. A one standard deviation decrease of the ratio of net exports to net foreign assets predicts an annualized 4% depreciation of the exchange rate over the next quarter.

International Financial Adjustment

The paper proposes a unified framework to study the dynamics of net foreign assets and exchange rate movements. We show that deteriorations in a country's net exports or net foreign asset position have to be matched either by future net export growth (trade adjustment channel) or by future increases in the returns of the net foreign asset portfolio (hitherto unexplored financial adjustment channel). Using a newly constructed data set on US gross foreign positions, we find that stabilizing valuation effects contribute as much as 31% of the external adjustment. Our theory also has asset pricing implications. Deviations from trend of the ratio of net exports to net foreign assets predict net foreign asset portfolio returns one quarter to two years ahead and net exports at longer horizons. The exchange rate affects the trade balance and the valuation of net foreign assets. It is forecastable in and out of sample at one quarter and beyond. A one standard deviation decrease of the ratio of net exports to net foreign assets predicts an annualized 4% depreciation of the exchange rate over the next quarter.Meese-Rogoff, external adjustment, net foreign assets, valuation effects, exchange rates

From World Banker to World Venture Capitalist: US External Adjustment and the Exorbitant Privilege

Does the center country of the International Monetary System enjoy an "exorbitant privilege" that significantly weakens its external constraint as has been asserted in some European quarters? Using a newly constructed dataset, we perform a detailed analysis of the historical evolution of US external assets and liabilities at market value since 1952. We find strong evidence of a sizeable excess return of gross assets over gross liabilities. Interestingly, this excess return increased after the collapse of the BrettonWoods fixed exchange rate system. It is mainly due to a "return discount": within each class of assets, the total return (yields and capital gains) that the US has to pay to foreigners is smaller than the total return the US gets on its foreign assets. We also find evidence of a "composition effect": the US tends to borrow short and lend long. As financial globalization accelerated its pace, the US transformed itself from a World Banker into a World Venture Capitalist, investing greater amounts in high yield assets such as equity and FDI. We use these findings to cast some light on the sustainability of the current global imbalances.

L'homme originaire ne descend pas du singe

L'argumentation d'Edmund Husserl, dans son étude intitulée "L'arche-originaire Terre ne se meut pas", se transpose terme à terme à la question de l'origine de l'homme. De même qu'il ne s'agissait pas pour Husserl de mettre en cause le système héliocentrique de Copernic, mais de le situer correctement d'un point de vue phénoménologique, de même n'est-il pas question de mettre en cause le darwinisme, mais de préciser son statut

Homme-femme : heureuse différence ou guerre des sexes ?

La différence sexuelle n’est pas une différence parmi d’autres : elle est l’altérité qui permet de comprendre toutes les altérités. Il y a du masculin et du féminin en chacun de nous, mais c’est seulement à partir de la différence entre les sexes reconnue à l’extérieur que chacun est à même de se construire et de reconnaître les différences à l’intérieur de lui-même. Sans organisation externe, il n’y a qu’un magma interne

Que faire des différences ?

- Altérité et différence - La différence entre l'humain et le non-humain - La différence entre l'homme et la femme - Le contexte général - De quelques difficultés contemporaines : reconnaissance des différences et égalité - Retour sur la différence homme/femme - La justice procède moins de l'égalité que de l'attentio

Mythe et logique

- Homo faber - La prohibition de l'inceste - Muthos et logos - Le mythe selon la modernité - " Le mythe date et ne date pas car il est contemporain de l'humanité " - Mythes et affects - Acheminement vers l'origin

L'école désorientée

L'école a été un instrument déterminant dans ce que Marcel Gauchet a appelé "la sortie de la religion" -- la fin de la structuration religieuse de la société. Une fois cet objectif atteint, quel sens profond peut orienter l'institution scolaire