Relationship between haemagglutination-inhibiting antibody titres and clinical protection against influenza: development and application of a bayesian random-effects model

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Antibodies directed against haemagglutinin, measured by the haemagglutination inhibition (HI) assay are essential to protective immunity against influenza infection. An HI titre of 1:40 is generally accepted to correspond to a 50% reduction in the risk of contracting influenza in a susceptible population, but limited attempts have been made to further quantify the association between HI titre and protective efficacy.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We present a model, using a meta-analytical approach, that estimates the level of clinical protection against influenza at any HI titre level. Source data were derived from a systematic literature review that identified 15 studies, representing a total of 5899 adult subjects and 1304 influenza cases with interval-censored information on HI titre. The parameters of the relationship between HI titre and clinical protection were estimated using Bayesian inference with a consideration of random effects and censorship in the available information.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>A significant and positive relationship between HI titre and clinical protection against influenza was observed in all tested models. This relationship was found to be similar irrespective of the type of viral strain (A or B) and the vaccination status of the individuals.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Although limitations in the data used should not be overlooked, the relationship derived in this analysis provides a means to predict the efficacy of inactivated influenza vaccines when only immunogenicity data are available. This relationship can also be useful for comparing the efficacy of different influenza vaccines based on their immunological profile.</p

Immunogenicity and serotype-specific efficacy of a 9-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV-9) determined during an efficacy trial in The Gambia.

This study aimed to determine the immunogenicity of a 9-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV-9) in a subgroup of Gambian children enrolled in a large vaccine efficacy trial. To place the antibody results in context, in this paper we also report previously unpublished data on serotype-specific clinical vaccine efficacy from the main trial. In the sub-study, a single 2-4 ml venous blood specimen was collected from 212 Gambian children 4-6 weeks after the administration of a third dose of PCV-9 or placebo. IgG antibodies to pneumococcal serotype 1, 4, 5, 6B, 9V, 14, 18C, 19F and 23F polysaccharides were measured by ELISA. The proportions of infants with antibody concentrations above 0.2, 0.35 and 1.0 microg/ml, and the geometric mean concentrations (GMCs) of anti-pneumococcal polysaccharide antibodies were substantially higher for each serotype in children who received three doses of PCV-9 than those in the placebo group. Among PCV-9 recipients, GMCs ranged between 2.61 and 11.09 microg/ml with the highest being against serotype 14 and the lowest against 9V polysaccharide. The estimated overall protective antibody level for all nine serotypes, based on the vaccine efficacy against vaccine-type invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) of 77% (95% CI: 51, 90) observed in the trial, was 2.3 microg/ml (95% CI: 1.0, 5.0). The PCV-9 studied was immunogenic in a Gambian population where it was also found to be efficacious